Blue Jays have a good pitching problem, plus Dodgers' lead down to one

New York Times

3 days ago

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The Blue Jays have a 4.5-game lead in the AL East. And it looks like they'll be getting even better soon.
Plus: Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw trade places on the hot/cold spectrum, the Dodgers and Padres are close to trading places in the standings and hey — weren't there supposed to be more two-way players by now?! I'm Levi Weaver, and Ken Rosenthal is off this week — welcome to The Windup!
To spoil this section: No. An eight-man rotation is … such a dumb idea that it doesn't warrant finishing the sentence.
But does Toronto have room for incremental rotation improvement? Who doesn't? Going into last night's games, here's where their rotation has ranked in August:
ERA: 3.60 (8th)
FIP: 4.87 (20th)
fWAR: 0.3 (T-19th)
K/9: 7.74 (22nd)
LOB (base runners stranded): 84.3 percent (3rd)
Innings pitched: 50 (T-7th)
It's all over the place. But they could be better, and soon, if for no other reason than this: They'll have more options to choose from.
So … how could this work? The simplistic answer is: In the second half, Max Scherzer, Eric Lauer and Kevin Gausman have been very good, and José Berríos and Chris Bassitt have struggled. Bieber could bump one of the latter two. Alternately, as Bannon notes here, they could temporarily employ a six-man rotation to delay that decision.
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Notably, Bannon mentions that Yesavage has worked in long relief lately. His most logical role with the big-league team (barring injuries) could be in relief, bolstering a top-heavy bullpen that recently added Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland.
With so many options, the Blue Jays don't desperately need any of of Bieber/Manoah/Yesavage to hit. But if one or more do, it could make their entire pitching staff pretty scary in October.
More rotation-juggling: Hunter Greene will be back with the Reds on Wednesday. That could mean a move to the bullpen for rookie phenom Chase Burns, who has struck out double-digit hitters in four of his last five starts (the lone exception being a rain-suspended game that limited him to one inning).
On one hand, Pete Crow-Armstrong's recent struggles have been a little surprising. Sahadev Sharma has charts in today's story, showing that Crow-Armstrong's line of .091/.118/.121 (.239 OPS) in August hasn't been a matter of chasing outside the zone, but of simply missing his pitch when it arrives.
Here, check out Crow-Armstrong's wOBA (weighted on-base average) on pitches in the heart of the zone, separated by month:
But as Crow-Armstrong has found a frigid patch of Summer, the Cubs have essentially replaced his production with the ascension of a different 23-year-old: Matt Shaw.
Shaw had a chance to seize the third base job out of spring training, and the result was being demoted to Triple A for a little while. Look at these splits, though:
Sharma also has that story, telling us the dramatic shift came with a mental reset over the break, paired with some slight mechanical tweaks: starting with his hands a little higher, and opening his stance a bit.
The Cubs are 10-11 in the second half (Crow-Armstrong hasn't been the only one struggling), but Shaw's emergence has been a welcome answer at the third base position as they try to climb back from what is now a 6.5-game deficit behind Milwaukee in the NL Central.
I'm just old enough to remember when Brooks Kieschnick was supposed to be the first two-way star in baseball since Babe Ruth. He hit .360 with 43 home runs while posting a 34-8 record and 3.05 ERA over three years at the University of Texas.
That didn't really pan out. Kieschnick only pitched in his last two years, and was worth 1.4 bWAR over six seasons. The 'next Babe Ruth' wouldn't come along until 2018, when Shohei Ohtani became, well, Shohei Ohtani.
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Ohtani was supposed to kick the doors in for two-way players, wasn't he? So why hasn't it happened? As Dhani Joseph writes today, it's complicated. Most players — even those drafted as two-way players — are a bit better at one than the other, meaning there's a proverbial 'fast lane' to the big leagues.
There's also the injury factor. Playing between starts makes a difference in a pitcher's rest routine, which impacts arm health. One UCL surgery does not a verdict make, but Ohtani hasn't been immune, either.
But one prohibitive factor might be a rule that was created, in essence, for Ohtani. From Dhani's story:
'To earn the (two-way) distinction, a player would need to pitch in 20 MLB innings and play in at least 20 MLB games as a position player or DH, with at least three plate appearances in each game in either the current or previous MLB season.'
Pair that with the rule about position players only pitching in blowouts or extra innings, and it becomes difficult for a position player to even be allowed to pitch regularly. And if a pitcher isn't quite big-league ready with the bat, what will a team keep them in the minors until they are, if they ever are? That would be the 'slow lane.'
Allowing those qualifying rules to extend to the minor leagues would allow teams to call up a pitcher who might serve as a fourth outfielder or pinch-hitter, or a position player who could pitch in relief or spot starter duty.
Until then, or until there's another Ohtani (allow me a hearty lol), it just doesn't make logistical sense to go through the rigamarole of qualifying as a two-way player.
While our East Coast readers were sleeping, the Padres were creeping. With a 4-1 win over the Giants, San Diego has won 12 of its last 15 games. Meanwhile, last night's 7-4 loss to the Angels means the Dodgers are 10-12 in the second half.
As a result, the Dodgers' lead in the NL West is down to one game. And the plot is thickening, as the two teams play a three-game series this weekend in Los Angeles, then turn around and do it again in San Diego the following weekend (Aug. 22-24).
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Remember, L.A. had to win two straight games to come back and knock off San Diego in last year's NLDS. After winning the World Series, they loaded up on star power, bringing in Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott, Hyeseong Kim and Michael Conforto.
Those five have combined for 1.6 bWAR, including 1.7 by Kim (and -0.6 by Conforto). Only Conforto and Snell are not currently on the IL (and Snell missed four months).
More Padres: The Red Sox believed that Robert Suarez was tipping pitches. They weren't alone: Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla was already on it.
Ben Rice has proven he can catch in the big leagues. With Austin Wells struggling at the plate, is it time for Rice to become the Yankees' primary catcher?
When Pete Alonso next homers, he will be the Mets' all-time leader in the category. Tim Britton spoke to folks around the Mets organization about which ones they remember the most.
We didn't believe in the Cardinals, and they got off to a hot start. We started believing, and they wilted into the deadline. We stopped again, and … are the Cardinals just being contrarians?!
Byron Buxton is back from the IL. But the injury didn't stop him from being a calming force for his Twins teammates after a brutal trade deadline.
The Astros can't afford any more injuries. But Josh Hader wasn't available last night due to shoulder discomfort. The team awaits the results of Monday's tests.
Brewers win-streak counter: 10 games! Paired with their 11-game streak earlier this year, they're just the 10th team in the divisional era (1969-present) with multiple double-digit win streaks in the same season.
On the pods: The Roundtable asks which slumping teams are in real trouble, while the Rates & Barrels fellas discussed the upcoming return of Hunter Greene in Cincinnati and ask if the Reds have found flyball pitchers to be undervalued.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: MLB's toughest remaining schedules.
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