Russian oil import cuts could hit Indian OMCs GRM by $1–1.5/bbl, says report
On July 15, 2025, Trump gave Russia 50 days to end the Ukraine war and agree to a peace deal; otherwise, he threatened to impose a 100% tariff on buyers of Russian oil. On July 29, he shortened this timeline to 10–12 days (down from 50 days). The US Treasury Secretary also warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, that it could face huge tariffs if it continued its purchases, with threats further extended to India to stop buying the Russian crude.
India is among the major buyers of Russian crude, with imports witnessing a significant surge since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the subsequent drop in Russian crude prices.
The share of Russian crude in India's total crude petroleum imports rose from just 1.5% during FY2018–FY2022 to 19.3% in FY2023 and further to 33–35% in FY2024–FY2025. Discounted Russian oil has also helped stabilize prices during periods when global crude prices spiked sharply, reaching as high as $135 per barrel.
Analysts at JM Financial believe this move is likely part of a broader US negotiation strategy aimed at pressuring Russia into agreeing to a peace deal with Ukraine. A significant reduction in Russian crude imports could otherwise trigger a sharp rise in crude prices, counteracting Trump's efforts to push the US Federal Reserve toward cutting interest rates, they added.
The US threat of secondary tariffs and penalties has prompted Indian refiners to seek government guidance on Russian crude purchases. Reports suggest state refiners halted Russian oil buys last week due to narrowing discounts and sanction risks, with tankers idling off India's west coast.
However, India's MEA stated energy imports are driven by market dynamics, not US pressure. While the US president claimed India may stop buying Russian oil, government sources clarified that refiners continue sourcing based on price, crude grade, and economic factors.
According to analysts at JM Financial, if India stops importing Russian crude, it would significantly impact OMCs and CPCL/MRPL, while having only a slight negative effect on Reliance Industries. The brokerage noted that this would end the USD 1–1.5/bbl GRM benefit that Indian refiners have enjoyed since FY23, driven by Russian crude discounts of USD 3–4/bbl, which account for 30–40% of India's crude requirements.
It further stated that every USD 1/bbl hit to GRM could negatively impact FY26 EBITDA by 8–10% for OMCs, 20–25% for MRPL/CPCL, and approximately 2% for RIL's consolidated EBITDA. This impact could be partially offset by a potential rise in diesel cracks due to supply-side concerns arising from possible US and EU sanctions.
The brokerage also noted that crude oil prices could rise sharply if India halts Russian crude imports, assuming the shortfall is not offset by increased purchases from China or other countries. China already buys a substantial 2–2.5 mmbpd of Russian crude compared to its total oil demand of around 16.5 mmbpd.
However, a sustained upside in crude prices is likely to be capped due to the current global oil oversupply of 1.5–2 mmbpd, aided by the easing of OPEC+'s 2.2 mmbpd voluntary output cut and a 1.5 mmbpd growth in non-OPEC+ output in CY25.
Global oil supply is expected to grow 2.1 mmbpd in CY25 versus demand growth of approximately 0.7 mmbpd. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has spare capacity of around 2 mmbpd, and elevated crude prices could hinder a key priority of the US President, pushing the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the brokerage noted.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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