Chaos engulfs Iran. What can Britain and Europe do?
Whether it is a democracy or a dictatorship, a state that loses a long war usually faces a dangerous reckoning. For four decades the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic of Iran were anchored on recurring confrontations with the United States and Israel. This struggle was not only a geopolitical fault line, it also provided a foundational narrative for the domestic legitimacy of Iran's ruling elite. As the prospect of Iran losing that conflict becomes real in the wake of relentless Israeli and American airstrikes, the Iranian state now teeters on the edge of destabilisation that may prove profoundly dangerous for the wider world.
In the wake of the Hamas attack on Israeli communities along Gaza's borders on 7 October 2023 and the attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militias in the months that followed, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seized every opportunity to weaken Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's theocratic regime in Tehran. The airpower campaign Israel initiated on 13 June to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons programme cannot topple the Khamenei regime overnight, but economic collapse and public frustration after a military defeat would undermine the foundations of the Islamic Republic. Despite long standing demands for regime change in Iran among American neo-conservatives and Israeli hawks, the US and Israeli governments have not produced a credible plan for what comes next after Iran's social order falls apart.
Dreams of victory among Israeli and US policymakers were bolstered by signs of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps overstretch abroad, even as the Khamenei regime's economic mismanagement led to cycles of revolt among a frustrated populace at home. The Israeli military's brutal evisceration of Hamas in Gaza, its decisive victory over Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime to Syrian rebel forces in the autumn of 2024 marked the humiliating collapse of a network of alliances that the IRGC had propped up for decades. But for all these setbacks, there is no sign of an opposition movement strong enough to restore stability if the Khamenei regime does fall apart.
Though the pressure Israeli and US airstrikes have exerted on the IRGC has led many commentators to draw comparisons with America's invasion of Iraq in 2003, such analogies are not useful for understanding the distinct geopolitical context of 2025 that will shape Iran's trajectory. The legacy of Colin Powell's so-called Pottery Barn Rule of 'you break it, you own it' underscoring US responsibility for any post war outcome no longer holds. Unlike Iraq twenty years ago, there is no American land army waiting in the wings to occupy and govern Iran. Instead, in his quest to shatter the Iranian state Netanyahu in particular seems intent on using Israel's military advantage to pursue chaos as a strategic goal.
If the Khamenei regime is toppled with no viable plan for what comes next, then Syria's recent civil war may prove a more salient precedent. Though central power would eventually reassert itself in a society as urbanised as Iran, a collapse of state structures is less likely to empower reformist elites than military warlords and regional strongmen. If power flows to the peripheries, a society fractured into fiefdoms would face recurring cycles of civil conflict that could generate refugee flows and economic disruption whose impact would be felt far beyond Iran's borders. In such a worst case scenario the consequences for the Middle East and Europe would be disastrous.
Yet the US and Israel show no indication of planning for a postwar regional order. The Netanyahu government's backing of the exiled Pahlavi dynasty whose corruption and incompetence brought about the Iranian Revolution and the rise of the Islamic Republic in 1979 borders on delusion. What is unfolding instead is a strategy of desiccating the Iranian state, letting it collapse, and then disengaging to leave others to clean up the mess.
The EU and the UK will try to keep their distance from such a wild gamble while offering economic incentives to Tehran in the hopes of reviving diplomacy. Yet Europeans have no contingency plans to deal with a collapse of the Islamic Republic. With no answer to the question of how to engage with a fragmenting society in an environment in which Israel and the US pursue chaos as a strategy, the EU and the UK would struggle to prevent such a disaster from exacerbating Europe's other geopolitical and economic challenges.
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Israel and America's war with Iran is not just a strategic throw of the dice. It is a fundamental shift in how power operates in a multipolar world. Though a transition toward new models of collective security remains theoretically possible, as the foundations of US global hegemony wither under Donald Trump the current trajectory favours entropy over order. The danger is not merely in acts of war, it is also in the chaos they leave behind.
For the EU and UK the escalating crisis in the Middle East means more than diplomatic frustration and higher energy prices. It could shape Europe's strategic environment for decades to come. The Iranian state might not survive its long war, but nor will the illusion that chaos can be contained.
[See also: Ayatollah Khamenei faces a nuclear nightmare]
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It quickly garnered international attention. But it was a decoy. The real strike force, a formation of seven B-2s, flew unnoticed across the Atlantic, their transponders off. Escorted by a fleet of fourth-and-fifth fighter jets, they crossed into Iranian airspace undetected. Moments later, they dropped 12 bunker-busters on Fordow and another two on Natanz. A converted Ohio-class submarine in the Arabian Sea fired 30 Tomahawk missiles at Natanz and a nuclear complex near the ancient city of Isfahan. Mr Trump quickly declared victory: Iran's nuclear programme had been ' completely and utterly obliterated '. Satellite images of Fordow soon emerged, showing precise strike points at tunnel entrances and ventilation shafts – the site's most vulnerable spots struck by the bombs, whose reinforced steel alloy casings allowed them to burrow into the rock before detonating more than 100 feet below the surface. 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Iran's retaliation was on its way in the form of 14 missiles – one for each bunker-buster dropped – aimed at Al Udeid, the largest US airbase in the Middle East. But the airbase had been evacuated. Iran had quietly passed warnings through intermediaries, giving the US time to pull personnel and Qatar to activate its air defences. All 14 missiles were intercepted. Iran's retaliation, a show purely for domestic consumption, was over. Iran's promises to 'shock and awe' its enemies once again fell short. Tehran's message was received and understood in the White House. Mr Trump wanted out, too, anxious to avoid entanglement in the kind of 'forever war' he had once campaigned against. He announced a 'complete and total' ceasefire, congratulating both sides for their 'stamina, courage and intelligence' to end what he dubbed 'the 12-day war'. Each side would remain 'peaceful' and 'respectful', he insisted, before boarding Air Force One bound for a Nato summit at The Hague. 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Telegraph
37 minutes ago
- Telegraph
Netanyahu has a chance to end Gaza war and cement his power
As Tel Aviv emerged from the bomb shelters on Tuesday morning, there was a brief surge of hope – but it didn't last long. 'It's over,' said a well-to-do woman who had moved from her 16th-floor apartment a few miles away to the hotel where I am staying, for the sanctuary of its safe room. The ceasefire meant life could return to normal, she said. She would return to her own apartment and start to travel again. 'Athens – it has the most beautiful hotel rooftops, with amazing wine,' she said. We exchanged numbers and said we'd text each other if parties broke out later in the day. After 12 intense days of fighting, we agreed the ceasefire was likely to be celebrated. You could call us – and Donald Trump – naive and you would be right, but it felt like a moment that Benjamin Netanyahu might exploit to wrap things up and run again. Yes, four civilians had just been killed in Be'er Sheva and others in Tehran, but Mr Netanyahu's Israel was on the front foot. Hamas has been all but wiped out militarily, ditto Hezbollah in Lebanon. Most important of all, Iran – the head of the octopus – has been crippled. What better time, then, for the Israeli prime minister – known as 'Mr Iran' – to announce an end to the war in Gaza and bring the remaining 50 hostages home; to make the most of the 'Bibi bounce' and seek to renew his mandate with fresh elections? 'The 12-day war is over, with amazing military achievements and painful costs to the Israeli home front,' said Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is held hostage in Gaza. He added: 'A general agreement to bring all the hostages home and end the [Gaza] war is the need of the hour – it is the Israeli interest.' This sentiment is reflected nationally. Ever since Israel became directly involved in combatting Iran last April, Mr Netanyahu's popularity has been recovering, says Dahlia Scheindlin, the Israeli political analyst. A recent poll by Agam Labs, a research group affiliated with Hebrew University, found that 70 per cent of the population in Israel (Jews and Arabs combined) supported Israel's attack on Iranian targets on June 13. Yet 75 per cent preferred to end the war in Gaza in exchange for the release of all hostages held by Hamas. 'For six months after Oct 7, neither the popularity of the governing coalition parties, nor Mr Netanyahu's suitability to be prime minister, seemed redeemable in the eyes of the Israeli public,' wrote Ms Scheindlin in Haaretz, the Left-leaning Israeli newspaper, last week. She continued: 'Then Iran and Israel had their first-ever direct military confrontation – and Israelis viewed the outcome as a win. The combination bolstered Netanyahu's recovery.' To be clear, there is no certainty that Mr Netanyahu would win if he called an election. There are reports he and his inner circle are weighing up snap elections in light of his attack on Iran, according to Channel 12. He does not have to go to the polls until October next year if he so chooses. But what he must decide soon is how best to consolidate his Iran advantage and minimise the nightmare that is Gaza – what Ms Scheindlin describes as Israel's 'dirty war'. No one knows how to surf storm waves better than Mr Netanyahu, but it has felt in the past 48 hours since the strike on Fordow that an exit plan was coming together. Yesterday, he promised there would be no 'war of attrition' with Iran (a widespread fear here), and that the war in Gaza might be nearing a conclusion. 'Peace through strength,' he said on the night of the US strikes. 'First comes strength, then comes peace.' But in wrapping the war up, he faces two big obstacles. First, the military establishment here is not convinced Iran has lost all its nuclear capability. That sentiment was backed up by a preliminary classified US report that said the American bombing did not collapse Iran's underground buildings. US officials told the New York Times the strikes had only set back Iran's nuclear programme by a few months and Iran could still make a bomb within half a year. Second, Mr Netanyahu's Right-wing coalition partners would not be happy with any deal in Gaza short of its full annexation. It was no doubt the former obstacle the prime minister had in mind last night when, just hours after a ceasefire deadline had been agreed with Mr Trump, he ordered the air force to make the most of the last few hours and launch one of the biggest bombing raids yet on Iran. 'They don't know what the f--- they're doing!' To be fair, fighting almost always accelerates as ceasefire deadlines loom, but Mr Trump – a war romantic – did not see it that way, much less so the bombing that went beyond it. Losing his temper with both parties on the White House lawn, he raged: 'Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I've never seen before. The biggest load that we've seen. 'I'm not happy with Israel… I'm not happy with Iran either. But I'm really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning, because of one rocket that didn't land.' 'You know what? We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f--- they're doing!' Mr Netanyahu quickly attempted a reverse ferret, calling his fighter jets to return, ordering an outright ban on any of his ministers talking to the media, and having his office issue a statement suggesting his early morning call with the president had been cordial. 'President Trump expressed his great appreciation for Israel,' it read. The trouble with all this as regards a triumphant end to the war and a dash for the polls (if indeed that was ever planned), is that it is no way to start. As Israelis never tire of saying, this is a place that demands strength of its leaders, and Bibi has been very publicly slapped down. By evening, the mood here was once again muted, and I suspect my friend with the apartment will be back in the hotel, close to a bomb shelter this evening. Certainly there have been no texts about celebrations. It seems that Mr Netanyahu has squandered another opportunity to bring this near 19-month conflict to an end. This time, however, it seems more by mistake than design.
