49ers badly need last 21st-round picks to reverse troubling NFL draft trend

USA Today

2 days ago

The San Francisco 49ers until recently had a strong track record in the NFL draft under head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch.
While they've hit home runs with a handful of mid-round picks, they're still trying to find another first-round star. That caliber of player has for the most part eluded them in Round 1 since the Shanahan-Lynch duo took over in 2017. San Francisco badly needs 2024 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall and 2025 first-round pick Mykel Williams to reverse a troubling first-round trend.
Since 2017 the 49ers have used nine first-round picks. Of the seven who would have reached extension eligibility, only two have received a second contract with the 49ers − defensive end Nick Bosa (2019) and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (2020). That duo, unsurprisingly, is also the only pair of 49ers first-round picks to make an All-Pro team or Pro Bowl. They had the same number of first-rounders not even complete their rookie contract in San Francisco.
By our deeply unscientific measure that relies largely on games played and vibes, only three of the 49ers' seven first-round choices between 2017 and 2021 can be considered "hits." That group includes Bosa, Aiyuk and offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey who left the 49ers in free agency to sign a five-year, $87.5 million contract with the Denver Broncos in 2023 − a deal too rich for San Francisco at the time.
If the 49ers are going to rapidly ascend back to Super Bowl contention, they need Pearsall and Williams to at the very least join the ranks of "hits" in the first round. They're more likely to require at least one of them to ascend to an All-Pro caliber talent who is cost-controlled for at least a couple years while some of their other big contracts age out.
Not that other players from the 2024 and 2025 draft classes can't step up and make an impact on the team's title hopes, but Pearsall and Williams both play positions where the 49ers need high-end performers.
Pearsall is in a receiving corps where 2020 seventh-round pick Jauan Jennings is the No. 1 option while Aiyuk is working his way back from a knee injury. His availability is up in the air for the start of the 2025 campaign. Beyond that it's veteran Demarcus Robinson, second-year fourth-rounder Jacob Cowing and rookie fourth-rounder Jordan Watkins as the primary options entering training camp.
Other players could step up, but the 49ers used a first-round pick on Pearsall for a reason. They believe in his ceiling and his ability to be a No. 1 or 2 option in their receiving corps. With Deebo Samuel's exit in an offseason trade with the Washington Commanders, the door sprung open for Pearsall to make his way into a top spot on the 49ers' depth chart. His climb could kickstart a 49ers passing attack that sputtered at times last year while it searched for reliable options on the perimeter.
Williams can have a similar impact on the other side of the ball where the 49ers group of defensive ends lacks production and experience. The 49ers selected Williams partially for his ability to set the edge and stop the run, but they need him to produce as a pass rusher, too. He posted only 14 sacks in 40 games at the University of Georgia. His career high of 5.0 came last season. San Francisco is hoping Williams can become an impact player opposite Bosa right away while offering pass rush help on the interior when DE Bryce Huff checks in on passing downs.
There's even more pressure on Williams than Pearsall in 2025. While the 49ers have a handful of additional options in the receiving corps and Aiyuk theoretically returning sometime during the season, they don't have that same luxury at defensive end. They chose Williams at No. 11 overall with the expectation he'd become their starting DE right away. Huff and Yetur Gross-Matos are best as rotational edge defenders. Beyond that the pickings are slim for the 49ers on the edge. If Williams struggles it's hard to envision a significantly improved San Francisco pass rush this year.
While relying on leaps from rookies and young players isn't ideal, it's part of the life cycle of NFL team-building. The 49ers' 2022 and 2023 draft classes haven't borne much fruit. The influx of high-end young talent will need to come from the 2024 and 2025 classes if San Francisco wants to remain competitive. There were 19 players in those classes, so there are plenty of opportunities for stars to emerge, but the 49ers will need their first-rounders to buck the trend of failed Round 1 picks by developing and hitting the ceilings that made them Day 1 NFL draft selections.
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