'Don't see an India-U.S. trade deal happening', says former Indian Finance Secretary
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Associated Press
17 minutes ago
- Associated Press
Now Live in the U.S.: Worldwide Club Offers for Travel Enthusiasts
NEW YORK, Aug. 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Travelzoo® (NASDAQ: TZOO), the club for travel enthusiasts, announces the release of Club Offers for Club Members in the U.S. Rigorously vetted and negotiated for us travel enthusiasts: Some offers have limited inventory and are subject to availability. Are you a travel enthusiast? Join the club today: About Travelzoo We, Travelzoo®, are the club for travel enthusiasts. We reach 30 million travelers. Club Members receive Club Offers personally reviewed by our deal experts around the globe. We have our finger on the pulse of outstanding travel, entertainment, and lifestyle experiences. We work in partnership with thousands of top travel suppliers—our long-standing relationships give us access to irresistible deals. Travelzoo is a registered trademark of Travelzoo. All other names are trademarks and/or registered trademarks of their respective owners. Media Contact: Paige Cram – Los Angeles +1 609 668 0645 [email protected] View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Travelzoo
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
At 207%, the Warren Buffett indicator says the stock market could crash!
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has shared a lot of wisdom throughout his successful career. However, one gem to come off his desk is the Buffett Indicator – a simple comparison of the US stock market's total value divided by US GDP. As Buffett puts it, the indicator is 'probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment'. And for value investors, knowing when the stock market is overpriced is a powerful advantage, even when relying only on index funds. However, looking at the Buffett Indicator today might cause some concern. US stocks are expensive Historically, his Indicator has sat between 90% and 135%. This healthy range generally indicates that US stocks are fairly-to-slightly overvalued and presents an ideal window of opportunity to top up on investments. But following the tremendous artificial intelligence (AI)-driven returns of 2023 and 2024, the indicator's been rising. So much so that it now sits at a whopping 207%! That's the highest it's ever been since records began in the 1970s. And it's even higher than the 194% peak seen in late 2021, right before US stocks experienced one of the most severe market corrections seen in over a decade. That would certainly explain why Buffett and his team at investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway have been busy selling stocks lately. In fact, the firm just marked its 11th consecutive quarter of being a net seller, with positions such as Bank of America, Citigroup, and Capital One all getting trimmed, or outright sold off. So could another stock market downturn be just around the corner? Panic isn't a strategy The stretched valuation of US stocks definitely creates cause for concern. However, there's no guarantee a crash or correction will actually materialise. Therefore, panic selling everything today likely isn't a sensible strategy, and it's why Buffett, despite higher selling activity, still has plenty of capital invested in the US stock market. In fact, he recently added $549m of Domino's Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ) to its investment portfolio. His investment thesis is relatively simple. As the world's largest pizza delivery company, Domino's runs a 99% franchised business model. Combining this with its recurring ingredient & supply chain revenue and its high-margin royalty income, the business is highly cash generative. And what's more, the firm's proven to be quite recession-resistant since people tend to eat pizza during both the good times and the bad. Of course, Buffett still highlighted some notable risks. Rising labour and ingredient prices do put pressure on profit margins, and the general shift towards healthier dining could erode demand over time. Nevertheless, he sees ample long-term potential for steady gains here. And given his track record of success, investors may want to take a closer look. Will the stock market crash in 2025? There's no way of knowing whether the stock market will take a nosedive later this year. Even with the Buffett Indicator at sky-high levels, Berkshire's investment in Domino's suggests there are still bargains to be found among US stocks. Therefore, investors could be well served to follow in Buffett's footsteps, not by panic-selling, but by trimming overvalued positions to maintain portfolio diversification and hunting for hidden bargains. The post At 207%, the Warren Buffett indicator says the stock market could crash! appeared first on The Motley Fool UK. More reading 5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50 One Top Growth Stock from the Motley Fool Zaven Boyrazian has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Motley Fool UK 2025 Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Trump says US jobs report was 'rigged' — here's how it actually works
Recent data on the health of the nation's job market cost Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, her own employment after President Trump lashed out when revisions to earlier months' numbers suggested the economy could be in worse shape than previously thought. 'Last weeks Job's Report was RIGGED,' Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday. The July employment numbers, released last week, showed the US added 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June than what was reported previously. Economists were quick to note the changes, while larger than normal, are routine, factoring in survey data from employers that's slower to arrive, while Trump's actions risk politicizing a crucial economic indicator. Here's how the jobs report is pieced together and why data within it is regularly updated. How 'jobs data' works Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an 'employment situation' report that includes employment, hours, and wage data for workers on nonfarm payrolls from an 'establishment survey' of businesses representing varied sectors of the economy. The report also includes data from a separate 'household survey' on the labor force, employment, and unemployment. The report is closely watched by economists, traders, and businesspeople because it can move markets, influence monetary policy, and reflect the overall health of the economy. The revisions that upset Trump were from the establishment survey, which relies on a survey of about 121,000 businesses and government agencies across the week or pay period that includes the 12th of the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimated data from this survey is always revised twice in the succeeding two months after it's initially published 'to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey and recalculated seasonal adjustment factors,' the BLS says in a 'frequently asked questions' page. Put simply, some businesses are slow to respond, so their survey answers are added as they're received, leading to revisions — up or down — in the estimates of new jobs. Importantly, the most recent revisions were within the BLS's confidence interval — the measure of uncertainty in its own estimates — of 'plus or minus 136,000' for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. May payroll data was revised down by 125,000 jobs to 19,000 jobs gained, while June was revised down by 133,000 to 14,000 jobs gained. Sweet noted that 'if you look at the size of the revisions relative to total employment, they're not significantly larger than what we've seen historically.' In a blog post earlier this year, Michael Madowitz, principal economist for the Roosevelt Institute, wrote that while revisions can lead to some confusion, it's worth reflecting on 'why incurring some temporary confusion, in this case, contributes to the universally respected economic statistics that are central to the long-term stability of the US financial system.' The BLS is showing its work, he noted, which is a good thing. The payroll estimates from establishment surveys are also revised annually to account for wage and employment data from state unemployment insurance tax records. One of these revisions made waves last August when the BLS announced the economy had 818,000 fewer positions in the 12 months ending in March 2024 than initially reported, though that revision itself was also revised earlier this year to 598,000 fewer jobs. Trump has referenced the 818,000 data point as another example of what he perceives as data manipulation to favor Democrats, though it wasn't exactly great news for the Biden administration. 'We were pretty devastated that in August of 2024 in an election year — right kind of in the home stretch there when people were starting to pay attention — BLS did its annual benchmark revision and found that we had added 800,000 fewer jobs than we had thought at that point,' said Alex Jacquez, a former Biden official and the chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive group. Why are the revisions happening? A bigger likely problem than data manipulation is fewer businesses answering the survey. Response rates for the establishment survey have declined sharply in recent years, leading to some worries that the data is becoming more vulnerable to errors. Still, researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote in March of the monthly employment gains through 2024 that 'despite the substantial decline in response rates, the incoming data are reassuringly not subject to greater noise, and thus greater uncertainty, than in the past.' But 'it's becoming less of a clear picture of how the labor market is doing in the first estimate' due to the lower survey responses, Sweet said. That's not a knock on the BLS, he added. 'These revisions are normal,' Sweet said. 'It's the nature of the beast of trying to measure a $30 trillion economy.' Additionally, big revisions have occurred in other times of economic weirdness, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. 'This is why we had massive upwards revisions in the early months of the Biden administration, when a ton of people were coming back into the labor force after COVID lockdowns,' Jacquez said. The US indeed has some weirdness right now, including tariffs, business uncertainty, and immigrant workers leaving the labor force. '(Major revisions) tend to coincide with idiosyncratic times in the labor market, which would make sense. If there's a big recession, there's a bunch of churn and a bunch of things happening in the labor market that wouldn't normally be captured by the standard analysis and regressions that you pull out of the data,' he added. Sign up for the Mind Your Money weekly newsletter By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Keep watch That's not to say the revisions aren't worth examining, though: the two-month revision was the biggest since 1968 when excluding recessions, economists at Goldman Sachs have said, and could point to some strain in the economy. Even before the most recent jobs report, economists had been watching for recession risks and a slowing job market, making reliable data all the more crucial. In a video appearance on Yahoo Finance, William Beach, McEntarfer's predecessor, said the BLS commissioner has nothing to do with the estimation or preparation of the jobs data, but 'the damage is done' — people who don't follow the BLS that closely may struggle to trust the numbers. 'We're going to take a long time to recover from this,' Beach said. Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. 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