Beyond the bullpen, how aggressive will the Dodgers be at the MLB trade deadline?

Los Angeles Times

3 days ago

BOSTON — Four months ago, the Dodgers were cast as baseball's new evil empire, lapping rival contenders with lavish free-agent spending during an offseason that raised alarms about competitive balance within MLB.
'Coming into the season,' general manager Brandon Gomes recalled this week, 'we were talking about how we've ruined baseball with all the talent we've got.'
Now, however, the narrative has shifted.
The Dodgers are a contender, yes, but riddled with the kind of flaws other front offices across the sport are trying to address in the run-up to next Thursday's trade deadline.
As a result, the behemoth talk has subsided. The worries about Dodger domination have ceased.
'I haven't heard anything about that lately,' Gomes quipped.
And it's against this backdrop that the Dodgers will approach the deadline — trying to square their lofty preseason expectations with what has proved to be an imperfect start to the year, and needling to decide exactly how drastic of changes they'll make for the rest of the way.
Internally, the Dodgers still see the foundation of a potential superteam.
Their lineup has struggled this month, yet continues to pace the majors in runs scored thanks to MVP-type seasons from Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith.
Their pitching staff has been battered by injuries to the rotation and disappointments in the bullpen, yet has done enough to keep the team in a top-two National League seed, trailing the Milwaukee Brewers by only 1½ games for the best record in the majors.
'This group is really talented,' Gomes said. 'I would argue it's better than the team that won the World Series last year.'
In theory, at least, it could be.
Come October, the Dodgers still envision a rotation headlined by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and (in some two-way capacity) Ohtani.
At the plate, they are banking on Mookie Betts to rediscover his swing, Freddie Freeman to continuing emerging from his slump, Max Muncy to pick up close to where he left off before suffering a knee injury, and other established veteran stars to produce closer to career norms than they have this season.
The bullpen, to this point, has been an undeniable weakness — but one that will almost assuredly be bolstered by a late-inning, high-leverage option before the July 31 deadline.
It's whether or not the Dodgers seriously pursue any other significant moves — or keep the faith in a roster they've spent many hundreds of millions to build — where the more complex calculus lies.
'It's really about our internal guys, and the fact that these are veteran guys that have well-established watermarks,' president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said this week when discussing the club's recent struggles, with their recent 4-11 slide fueling speculation about their deadline plans.
'I think the fact that we see the work they put in, how much they care, just makes it easier to bet on.'
The Dodgers, of course, were hoping not to be facing such consequential decisions at deadline time this season.
Back in the winter, when some corners of the sport were bemoaning their heavy spending, they were imagining a world in which they'd actually be able to sell superfluous pieces.
The returns on this winter's round of high-priced investments, however, have all but dashed any such dreams.
Consider the spending the Dodgers did this past offseason:
Snell signed a $182 million contract, but made only two starts before going on the injured list with a shoulder injury.
Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates signed for a combined $85 million to shore up the back end of the bullpen, but have the worst ERAs (4.14 and 4.45 respectively) among Dodgers relievers with more than 30 appearances this season.
Michael Conforto was added on a $17 million deal to round out the outfield, but currently has the worst batting average among 159 qualified MLB hitters.
Roki Sasaki arrived as a much-hyped phenom from Japan, but struggled with his mechanics and command en route to a 4.72 ERA before suffering his own shoulder injury.
To this point, the only new addition who has been worth even one win above replacement, according to Baseball Reference, is utilityman Hyeseong Kim (who had to start the year in the minors to revamp his swing after arriving from South Korea).
And when coupled with the regression endured by Betts, Freeman, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman, it has left the club in the kind of position that usually prompts more wide-ranging activity at the trade deadline.
'It's always tricky when you're in the midst of a swoon in team performance, because in those moments you feel like we need everything,' Friedman acknowledged. 'So for us, it's about, all right, let's look ahead to August, September. Let's look at what our best-case scenario is. Let's look at, if we have a few injuries here and there, what areas are we exposed? What areas do we feel like we have depth?'
The bullpen has already been exposed as an area of need. And it'd be a shock if the Dodgers don't land a high-leverage right-hander.
Beyond that, however, it remains unclear just how urgent the Dodgers will be to add in the next seven days.
The rotation, they feel, is still in good shape. Yamamoto has pitched like a Cy Young contender. Glasnow has been impressive since returning from a shoulder injury a few weeks back. Snell should be back in action soon, likely needing just one more minor-league rehab start before rejoining the team. And Ohtani has flashed elite-level stuff in his small sample size as a pitcher since returning from a second career Tommy John surgery.
Injuries always loom as a risk. But for now, Friedman argued, the Dodgers 'feel like we're gonna get to a place where we're not gonna have enough starting pitcher spots for our starting pitching.'
They could be more likely to deal from their rotation surplus (Dustin May, who has been up-and-down in his contract year, has come up in rumors as a potential trade chip) or eventually reassign excess starters (perhaps like Emmet Sheehan) to the bullpen.
On the offensive side, Conforto's spot in left field is the one position where the Dodgers could use an impact upgrade.
But Dave Roberts voiced the team's continued confidence that the veteran slugger can improve down the stretch, insisting better performance is 'still in there.'
And even if the Dodgers do pursue an external option, they might be limited by an underwhelming market.
Steven Kwan of the Cleveland Guardians and Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox are the top two outfield options that could be moved — but it would take a hefty package to convince either of their teams to pull the trigger on a deal.
Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles, Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox, and Adolis García of the Texas Rangers headline the next tier of outfield talent, but they have all posted below-league-average production at the plate this year.
When asked about the need for offensive improvements this week, Roberts also looked internally first — arguing that if the Dodgers get the late-season surges they expect from their established stars, 'those are essentially four or five trade pickups in itself.'
'We're going to bet on the comeback, the performance of those guys,' Roberts added.
There could be ways for the Dodgers to do something more on the margins.
As things currently stand, their depth roles come October would be filled by Kim, Kiké Hernández and Miguel Rojas.
Perhaps adding a cheaper rental bat — Twins veterans Harrison Bader and Willi Castro are two options they just saw up close — would provide better insurance.
But on the whole, the Dodgers are at least posturing as if, outside of bolstering bullpen, they would be content with leaving things relatively be.
'The best way to address [our recent struggles] is for our guys to get back to some semblance of normalcy,' Friedman said. 'And when that happens, in our opinion, we're the best offense in baseball.'
It doesn't mean they won't look for another big move beyond the bullpen. As Friedman noted, 'anytime a needle-moving player is available, we're gonna get involved.'
But, even in the wake of a somewhat underwhelming first four months, the Dodgers still believe in a roster that had some predicting a 120-win season this year.
They still think that, even in light of all that's gone wrong to this point, they possess the kind of otherworldly potential that caused so much consternation back before the season.