
Market under pressure as Trump tariff offsets RBI's expected rate cut pause
Experts believe this tariff increase will negatively impact India's outbound trade to the US, which is valued at nearly $100 billion. The move is also expected to affect the earnings of many companies that derive a significant portion of their revenue from exports to the US.
Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, told TNIE that the market may open flat or slightly lower on Thursday with a negative bias. This is because the tariff will apply only after 21 days, creating uncertainty about whether and when it will actually come into effect.
'By allowing 21 days, Trump is keeping the negotiation window open, which is likely to provide some relief to investors. I also feel most negative cues are already factored in,' said Agrawal. He added that sectors like Gems & Jewellery and Textiles, which have maximum exposure to the US market, have seen sharp corrections in recent sessions.
Regarding pharma companies, Agrawal said, 'It is difficult to predict the impact because imposing taxes on medicines is not easy for any country.'
Concerns over escalating US-India trade tensions overshadowed the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5%, a move that was widely anticipated by markets.
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Economic Times
12 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Safeguarding employment in the face of a US tariff hike
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Mapping the most affected sectors: To better prepare for the implications of higher tariffs, particularly for the employment scenario in India, it is crucial to identify the products that will be most impacted by the additional tariffs – both in terms of production volume and the number of workers employed in these sectors. This analysis should be complemented by an evaluation of whether the surplus output from these sectors can be absorbed either through trade-diversification or within the domestic economy to arrive at a realistic assessment of the impact on India's manufacturing, exports, employment, and GDP. Currently, the proposed 50 percent additional tariffs will not impact smartphones, pharmaceutical products, or petroleum exports - offering relief to the lakhs of workers employed in their production, from iPhone assembly lines in Sriperumbudur to pharmaceutical hubs in Hyderabad Pharma city and refineries of Navi Mumbai. 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However, within this segment, auto parts are more susceptible to the impact of potential US tariffs, given the possibility of American importers turning to cheaper supplies from other nations such as Canada, China or Mexico. Policy priorities for protecting jobs: In conclusion, several labour-intensive exports from India to the US require early impact-assessment and targeted support. Sectors of particular concern from employment point of view include SMEs in apparel, gems and jewellery, auto components, downstream industries in steel, aluminium and marine farming. States that are key exporters of these products to US markets would benefit from initiating early impact assessments and developing alternative strategies, even as we remain hopeful for a fair, mutually beneficial and constructive outcome in the upcoming round of trade negotiations with the US. (The author is Sumita Dawra, former Secretary, M/o Labour & Employment, Govt of India)


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