Near-term strategy for stocks with high futures rollover
Nifty
extended its losing streak to the fifth week, traders are treading cautiously with stock-specific action expected to take centre stage. Futures rollovers offer critical clues to near-term positioning with select stock contracts seeing higher-than-usual rollovers into the August series. Here's a look at key stocks showing elevated rollover activity, along with the technical outlook according to analysts.
BULLISH BETS
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Kaynes Technology India
CMP: Rs 6,363 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 14.9% Change in Price (August Series): 3.1%
The stock has been witnessing consistent long buildup for the past two trading sessions, signalling sustained buying interest following better-than expected first quarter results.
Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives analyst, Samco Securities, said derivatives data bolsters the bullish outlook, with noticeable unwinding of call positions at the Rs 6,200–Rs 6,300 strikes, while put writers have aggressively added positions near these levels.
'A simultaneous shift in call writing to higher strikes indicates growing trader confidence in the stock's upward trajectory,' he said.
Traders may look to initiate fresh long positions around Rs 6,300–Rs 6,371, targeting an upside of Rs 7,220, he said. The bullish thesis remains intact as long as the stock stays above Rs 5,820.
Jindal Stainless
CMP: Rs 704.3 Change in Open Interest (August Series): -0.1% Change in Price (August Series): 1.5%
Vipin Kumar, assistant vice president of derivatives and technical research at Globe Capital Market, said JSL has formed a double bottom formation near the support zone of its previous breakout levels, which also coincides with its 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages (DEMA).
'It has also breached the past couple of weeks' congestion zone on the higher side on a closing basis,' Kumar noted. The company is set to announce its first quarter results this week. Kumar recommends buying August futures in Rs 690–Rs 700 range, for target of Rs 735– Rs 760, with a stop loss at Rs 667.
Jio Financial Services
CMP: Rs 329.85 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 0.1% Change in Price (August Series): 0.2%
Last week, the stock took support near its 50-day EMA and then witnessed a sharp rebound, said Sudeep Shah, vice-president and head of technical and derivative Research, SBI Securities.
'Currently, all the moving averages and momentum indicators are suggesting strong bullish momentum,' he added. Shah recommends accumulating the stock in the Rs 327–Rs 330 zone, with a stop loss at Rs 314. On the upside, it is likely to test Rs 350, followed by Rs 360 in the short term.
BEARISH BETS
Indraprastha Gas
CMP: Rs 201.8 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 9.1% Change in Price (August Series): -1.6%
Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at
Motilal Oswal Financial Services
, said the stock witnessed a short buildup in open interest alongside a price decline, signalling rising bearish bets.
'Additionally, short rollovers were observed, further reinforcing the view of continued weakness in the stock,' Taparia said. He suggests selling IGL August futures for a target of Rs 192, with a stop loss at Rs 207.
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
CMP: Rs 1,221.4 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 4.9% Change in Price (August Series): -3.85%
Stock has moved from a phase of long unwinding in previous session to a fresh short build-up, indicating shift in sentiment, said Dhameja.
'Stock structure continues to weaken,' he said. 'Breakdown is validated by spike in volumes, surpassing average, confirming strength behind bearish move.'
Traders may initiate short positions around Rs 1,220 and consider adding on pullbacks toward Rs 1,232, targeting Rs 1,145. The stop loss is placed at Rs 1,275.
Exide Industries
CMP: Rs 379 Change in Open Interest (August Series): -0.5% Change in Price (August Series): -1.4%
Kumar said Exide is trading below both its long-term and short-term moving averages.
'At the current juncture, it is trading on the verge of a fresh breakdown from its price and trendline support,' he said.
'Going ahead, it is likely to continue its underperformance in the near term till it is trading below Rs 400 and might test Rs 362–Rs 350 levels.' Kumar suggests selling August futures in the Rs 382– Rs 385 range, with a stop loss at Rs 400.
Federal Bank
CMP: Rs 195.61 Change in Open Interest (August Series): 7.7% Change in Price (August Series): -3.4%
Taparia said the stock saw a significant rise in open interest— nearly 8%— alongside a 5% price drop last week, indicating strong short build-up.
'The overall price action also reflects persistent weakness, suggesting that the downward trend may continue in the near term,' he said. Traders may consider selling August futures for a target of Rs 187, with a stop loss at Rs 200.
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