Expert Addresses Model Showing Major Hurricane Hitting Florida This Month

Newsweek

5 hours ago

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A recent run of the Global Forecast Model (GFS) showed the possibility of a major hurricane hitting Florida's east coast this month, prompting weather hobbyists to share their concerns across social media.
However, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that the model doesn't necessarily indicate a true outcome and that Floridians shouldn't worry based on the predictions of one forecasting model.
Why It Matters
The widespread social media posts sharing the model comes as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) tracks three systems in the Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Dexter, which is currently moving further out to sea, and two disturbances, one in the central tropical Atlantic and one brewing much closer to the U.S. Each disturbance has a moderate chance at strengthening into a tropical storm in the coming days.
A hurricane is seen from space.
A hurricane is seen from space.
buradaki/Getty
What To Know
Of the two systems that could strengthen into Tropical Storm Erin, the fifth named system of the season, the one closer to the U.S. originally appeared as though it would move inland, but DaSilva said the system now looks as though it will run parallel to the coast.
The other system, in the central tropical Atlantic, has a higher chance of developing, though DaSilva said meteorologists are anticipating it will take a turn out to sea east of Bermuda.
And although the storm could "very well" strengthen into a hurricane, DaSilva urged people to be cautious when assessing a single GFS model, specifically one with a long-term forecast.
"Essentially, it's one run of one model," DaSilva told Newsweek.
When meteorologists assess a forecast, specifically one that is a further way out, they assess forecasting model ensembles rather than only one model. The ensembles can give a "better idea than looking at one model one time," DaSilva said.
"If we saw a lot of ensembles taking a major hurricane into Florida, and we saw the European model doing the same thing, we would be much more concerned," he said.
DaSilva added that the GFS, which can provide forecasts more than two weeks in advance, has a bias in which it exaggerates a storm's impact in its longer-range forecasts.
"This is a known thing. Meteorologists look at that and take it with a grain of salt, and the general public may say, 'oh no, here comes a major hurricane,'" DaSilva said.
DaSilva urged people, especially those in hurricane-prone areas, to take advice from a meteorologist and not a "random person on social media posting one model."
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "When you see people posting the doomsday scenario on social media from one run, that is just one run. There are many other runs, many other models have to be looked at."
The National Hurricane Center, in an updated outlook for a disturbance near the Southeast coast: "A weak area of low pressure has formed from a surface trough, several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States. However, this system is currently producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity and development is likely to be slow to occur during the next few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development. A tropical depression could still form by this weekend as the low initially drifts westward before turning northward to northeastward by the weekend."
What Happens Next
Even if the two disturbances monitored by the NHC don't develop into tropical storms, some weather hazards could still impact the East Coast later this week, including torrential rain and dangerous rip currents. People along the East Coast are urged to follow local weather guidance as meteorologists continue tracking the systems.