Gold Surges 100% in Two and a Half Years: Will the Upward Momentum Continue?
Although often described as a defensive asset or a safe haven during crises, gold has proven over recent decades to be much more than just a "store of value." It has delivered remarkable long-term performance, sometimes outpacing other asset classes in terms of compound annual growth rate (CAGR), even amid volatile economic cycles.
Gold Investors: A Winning Bet
Those who bet on gold and maintained a long-term perspective have reaped substantial rewards. While gold has often remained outside the primary focus of individual investors—with most investment advice recommending no more than 5-10% allocation—statistics show that gold has been a winning choice for those who adopted it as a long-term strategic asset.
From July 2015 to July 2025, gold achieved a CAGR of 12.16%.
Over the past twenty years, since 2005, gold recorded an 11.51% CAGR.
From July 2000 to today, gold rose from $200 to over $3,330 per ounce—a gain exceeding 1,500% in absolute value, or about 11.9% CAGR.
Gold's Pattern: Patience Reveals Value
Gold's price behavior is notable for its tendency toward prolonged periods of stagnation, followed by sharp and intense movements. Investors may wait years without significant returns, but the eventual payoff is often substantial when the price breaks out.
Recent Performance Defies Expectations
Gold's recent performance has been impressive:
It has risen by more than 27% since the beginning of 2025.
Over the past 12 months, it surged by more than 40%.
Since the October 2022 low ($1,630), gold's price has doubled to $3,260 in less than 28 months.
This means gold has delivered nearly a 100% return in under two and a half years—a result rarely matched even by the fastest-growing stocks.
Reasons Behind the Surge
Gold's rise can be attributed to several global factors and variables, including:
Escalating geopolitical risks worldwide.
Aggressive gold purchases by central banks.
Weakness of the US dollar and eroding confidence in it as the dominant reserve currency.
Controversial fiscal policies and trade measures under President Trump's administration.
Conflicting Forecasts... But Upward Momentum Prevails
Major financial institutions have varying forecasts for gold's future:
Bank of America expects gold to reach $4,000 per ounce in 2026, a 20% increase from current levels.
Goldman Sachs predicts gold will surpass $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025.
In contrast, Citi Research believes gold may have already peaked and expects a decline toward $3,100–$3,500 in Q3 2025, with further decreases in 2026.
India: Gold Directionless for Two Months
In the Indian market—the world's second-largest gold consumer—the local price currently stands at around 97,580 rupees, reflecting a sideways movement in the absence of domestic catalysts, despite the global upward trend.
Gold's performance over time underscores its nature as a patient investment asset: it doesn't move every day, but it rewards those who give it time. Major gains come not from timing the market, but from persistence and consistency.
While the traditional advice against over-investing in gold remains valid—it should be part of a diversified portfolio—completely ignoring it means overlooking one of the few assets that has proven its ability to withstand time, wars, crises, and even the Federal Reserve.
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