&w=3840&q=100)
Opec sees stronger global economy in H2 2025 as oil demand stays firm
Reuters
OPEC said the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year despite trade conflicts and refineries' crude intake would remain elevated to meet the uptick in summer travel, helping to support the demand outlook.
In a monthly report on Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026 after reductions in April, saying the economic outlook was robust.
"India, China, and Brazil are outperforming expectations so far, while the United States and the Eurozone are experiencing a continued rebound from last year," OPEC said in the report.
"With this, the second-half 2025 economic growth may turn out better than currently expected."
A solid economy shrugging off trade conflicts would make it easier for OPEC+, which groups OPEC plus Russia and other allies, to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.
OPEC+ agreed on July 5 to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, further accelerating output increases at its first meeting since oil prices jumped, then retreated, following Israeli and US attacks on Iran.
Oil prices have not significantly fallen despite the larger than expected OPEC+ hike and US President Donald Trump's
50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war , finding support from rising seasonal demand.
Global refinery crude intake posted a sharp increase of 2.1 million bpd in June from May as refiners returned from maintenance, a sign of a stronger oil market, OPEC said in the report, adding that throughput was likely to stay high.
"Refinery intakes globally, and particularly in the US, are expected to keep throughputs elevated to meet the seasonal uptick in transport fuel demand, especially that of gasoline, jet/kerosene and residual fuel," OPEC said.
OPEC's demand forecasts are at the higher end of the industry range, as the agency expects a slower energy transition than some other forecasters.
The International Energy Agency last week trimmed its demand forecasts but said the market may be tighter than it appears as refineries ramp up processing to meet summer travel demand.
Brent crude was steady after OPEC published the report, trading close to $69 a barrel.
OPEC's report also showed that in June OPEC+ pumped 41.56 million bpd, up 349,000 bpd from May. This is slightly less than the 411,000 bpd hike called for by the group's increase in its June quotas.
The actual hike was smaller than the headline increase in quotas partly because some nations, such as Iraq, cut output as part of a pledge to make further reductions for earlier pumping above targets.
Still, output in Kazakhstan, which is under pressure to comply with OPEC+ quotas, rose last month after slightly falling in May and remained above the country's quota.
According to OPEC, Kazakhstan's oil production rose by 64,000 bpd in June to 1.847 million bpd.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
18 minutes ago
- Time of India
After huge US cuts, who pays for aid in the Middle East now?
After huge US cuts, who pays for aid in the Middle East now? (Image: AP) Ask around various civil society organizations working in the Middle East and the answer is always the same. "Nobody really knows what's happening," one project manager running a Syria-based project told DW about the US cuts in aid funding. "They haven't put a complete stop to it yet so we're just spending the money on a monthly basis and hoping for the best. " "We still don't know if we're going to get the funding we were promised this year," the founder of an Iraqi journalists' network in Baghdad said. "We probably won't be able to pay some of our journalists. Right now, we're approaching other organizations to try to replace the money." Neither interviewee wanted their names published because they didn't want to criticize their donors publicly. They are not alone. Since US President Donald Trump took power, he has slashed US funding for what's known as "official development aid," or ODA. Often simply called foreign aid, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development defines ODA as "government aid that promotes and specifically targets the economic development and welfare of developing countries." ODA can be bilateral — given from country to country — or multilateral, where funds are pooled by an organization like the UN, then disbursed. The US is not the only country cutting ODA. Even before what insiders described as the US' "chaotic" budget cuts, reductions in ODA were a longer-term pattern. Global ODA fell by over 7 percent in 2024, as European nations and the UK also reduced ODA in favour of channeling more money into defence. Last year marked the first time in nearly 30 years that major donors like France, Germany, the UK and the US all cut ODA. Funding cuts' impact on the Middle East? In 2023, countries in the Middle East got around $7.8 billion (€6.7 billion) out of the $42.4 billion (€36.3 billion) the US spent that year. That is why, Laith Alajlouni, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, wrote in March, "the effects of US aid cuts … will be felt deeply in the Middle East, where key US partners continue to rely heavily on US assistance to meet their military and economic needs." Between 2014 and 2024, the US pledged around $106.8 billion to countries in the region. Israel gets just under a third of that, although much of the money is earmarked for military purposes. But for other countries, funds from the US were equivalent to a significant portion of their national income, Alajlouni pointed out. Now funding for emergency food and water in Sudan, medicines in Yemen, children's nutrition in Lebanon, and camps for the displaced, including families allegedly connected to the extremist "Islamic State" group in Syria are all are at risk, Alajlouni argues. Other countries, like Jordan and Egypt, are heavily reliant on foreign funding for "economic development" to keep their ailing economies afloat, he noted. It remains unclear exactly how much Middle Eastern countries will lose due to ODA cuts. Last month, researchers at Washington-based think tank, the Centre for Global Development, tried to calculate the fallout. "Some countries are projected to lose large amounts of ODA simply because of who their main donors are," they noted, "while others are projected to lose very little." For example, Yemen will likely see its ODA reduced by 19 percent between 2023 and 2026. In 2025, its three biggest donors, via the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or UNOCHA, were Saudi Arabia, the EU and the UK. Somalia, on the other hand may lose as much as 39 percent. Its main donors, via UNOCHA, were the UK, the EU and the US. Who pays for aid in the Middle East now? "It is clear that in the short term, the shortfall in aid funding will not be closed," Vincenzo Bollettino, director of the resilient communities program at Harvard University's Humanitarian Initiative in Boston, told DW. "In the mid-to-long term, it's likely there will be a tapestry of different forms of aid." Part of that will be a larger number of states "providing aid and development assistance where it aligns with their own political objectives," Bollettino predicts. Russia's main agency for international cooperation, Rossotrudnichestvo, recently announced it would restructure to be more like USAID and will open outposts in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. But at just $70 million annually, Rossotrudnichestvo's budget is comparatively small. Chinese money could be another alternative to US and European funding. "China has positioned itself as the US' greatest competitor in global development," experts at US think tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, warned in July. But China isn't all that interested in the Middle East, experts point out, and is more engaged in Southeast Asia and Africa. "Neither Russia nor China have played traditionally significant roles in the international humanitarian aid system and this is unlikely to change anytime soon," Bollettino explains. How aid became more political Much more likely donors in the Middle East will be the wealthy Gulf states, says Markus Loewe, a professor and the coordinator for research on the Middle East and North Africa at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability, or IDOS. Over the last two decades, four Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait — have been internationally significant donors. "For example, Saudi Arabia is already offering substantial support to Syria," Loewe told DW. "They have been supporting Lebanon to quite a degree and they would definitely be ready to pay a lot of the costs of reconstruction in Gaza, provided there is an acceptable agreement on a ceasefire." Hardly any Gulf money goes into what are called "pooled" funds like those run by the UN. Most is bilateral, from country to country, because the Gulf states tend to use their ODA in a more transactional way. That is, as a diplomatic tool where it ties into different Gulf states' often-competing foreign policy aims. "Aid recipients who are considered politically important for Gulf donors tend to receive more aid," Khaled AlMezaini, a professor at the UAE's Zayed University, wrote in a recent analysis. For example, despite waging war on parts of Yemen from 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were also the country's biggest donors. But as Harvard's Bollettino points out, ODA is not meant to be political. That goes against basic humanitarian principles of neutrality and impartiality. "The essential problem with instrumentalized aid is that it's just as likely to be a catalyst of conflict and violence as a source of peace and security," he argues. "The so-called Gaza Humanitarian Foundation — where 'humanitarian aid' being delivered to starving civilians has resulted in hundreds of Palestinians being killed — is a case in point."
Time of India
18 minutes ago
- Time of India
Malaysia controls AI chip exports as US targets China smuggling
Malaysia will now require permits for exports of high-performance US artificial intelligence chips, suggesting the government is seeking to clamp down on potential diversion of the sensitive components to places like China. Effective immediately, individuals and companies must notify Kuala Lumpur at least 30 days prior to exporting or shipping such hardware, Malaysia's trade and industry ministry said Monday. They must inform the agency if they know or 'have reasonable grounds' to suspect the items will be misused or used for restricted activities. Malaysia 'will not tolerate the misuse of Malaysia's jurisdiction for illicit trading activities,' the ministry said. Kuala Lumpur has come under increasing pressure from Washington — which has effectively banned the sale of advanced AI chips to China since 2022 — to halt the suspected flow of those parts to China via intermediaries in Malaysia. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like An engineer reveals: One simple trick to get internet without a subscription Techno Mag Learn More Undo Malaysian authorities said in March that they would tighten regulations on the country's burgeoning data center industry, which relies on chips from the likes of Nvidia Corp. The new permit requirements aim to 'close regulatory gaps,' according to the ministry's statement, while Malaysia 'undertakes further review' of the potential inclusion of AI chips to a national list of items covered by the Strategic Trade Act. The ministry did not immediately respond to questions about whether the controls came at Washington's urging. Live Events Bloomberg Malaysian authorities said in March that they would tighten regulations on the country's burgeoning data center industry, which relies on chips from the likes of Nvidia Corp. Semiconductor sales to Malaysia also are a focal point of a court case in neighboring Singapore, where prosecutors charged three men with defrauding customers about the ultimate destination of AI servers — originally shipped from the island nation to Malaysia — that may have contained advanced Nvidia chips. Malaysia said in March that its investigation into the matter hadn't uncovered evidence of such shipments, and that the country will continue to monitor for possible fraud. Nvidia has not been accused of any wrongdoing in Singapore's investigation. Malaysia is a key part of the AI supply chain, home to many facilities used for developing and deploying AI models. American companies including Oracle Corp. are massively expanding their data center footprints in the country, which saw an increase in imports of crucial components this year — particularly in April, the month before the US was expected to start requiring licenses to ship AI chips to Malaysia and many other countries. President Donald Trump's administration decided not to move forward with that policy in May, though officials have since drafted a separate regulation that would mandate such approvals for AI chip shipments to Malaysia and Thailand in particular — an effort that seeks to crack down on suspected semiconductor smuggling into China, Bloomberg has reported. That rule is not yet finalized and could still change. Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has said there's 'no evidence' of AI chip diversion, in general remarks that didn't touch on any particular country. In response to earlier Bloomberg queries about the potential US curbs, Malaysia's trade ministry said that it welcomes dialogue with the US and other nations to 'clarify any misunderstandings,' while also warning that unilateral restrictions could disrupt legitimate trade and hamper ministry — which, like many others in Asia, is currently hammering out a trade deal with US officials — added that 'all matters related to Malaysia-US bilateral trade are interlinked, each having its own unique role in the current trade negotiations.'
The Hindu
23 minutes ago
- The Hindu
Rupee falls 22 paise to 85.98 against U.S. dollar in early trade
The rupee declined 22 paise to 85.98 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday (July 16, 2025) amid a rise in global crude oil prices and a decline in exports and imports, which indicated a slowing economy. However, FPI inflows cushioned against steeper losses in the local unit, according to forex traders. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.02 against the dollar before inching up to 85.98, down 22 paise from its previous close. The rupee appreciated 16 paise to close at 85.76 against the U.S. dollar, tracking a weak greenback in the overseas market and a decline in global crude oil prices. "The rupee has fallen on a rise in dollar index [overnight] and a fall in Asian currencies against the dollar. We expect RBI to protect 86.00 levels," Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. "While India's trade deficit came lower than expected, it also indicated a slowing economy with exports and imports both down," he said. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 0.22% to $68.86 per barrel in futures trade. "Brent oil prices rose slightly on expectations of a steady demand from the U.S. and China, the world's two largest oil consumers, amid an improving economic outlook. That has reversed two days of decline as the US president threatened tariffs on the purchase of Russian oil," Bhansali added. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, dipped marginally 0.01% to 98.60 after strengthening overnight. On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex declined 103.16 points to 82,467.75 in early trade, while Nifty was down 56.75 points to 25,139.05. India's exports remained unchanged at $35.14 billion in June, while the trade deficit stood at $18.78 billion during the month, the latest government data showed on Tuesday. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹120.47 crore on a net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data. Meanwhile, an Indian Commerce Ministry team is in Washington for another round of talks on the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA). The four-day talks, which started on Monday (July 14), will conclude on Thursday (July 17).
