Rupee to cling to recovery before long weekend featuring Trump-Putin meet
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 87.44-87.46 range versus the U.S. dollar, flat from Wednesday's level of 87.44. The local currency had its best day in more than a month on Wednesday, thanks to a softer dollar and position adjustments.
"The recovery yesterday was against the trend and caught a few by surprise," a senior banker at a private bank said.
"Today should be quiet with a mild upside bias (on dollar/rupee)," he added. "Most interbank desks are in wait-and-watch mode with positions light heading into a potentially risk-filled weekend."
Indian financial markets are shut on Friday, when Trump and Putin are scheduled to meet in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
For India, the meeting holds added significance after Trump criticised its purchase of Russian oil and imposed an extra 25% tariff on its goods effective August 27, doubling the rate to 50% - the highest U.S. tariff on a country alongside Brazil.
"At a 50% tariff rate, several Indian industries would face significant headwinds, particularly those for which the U.S. is their largest export market," said Lim Ze Hao, an analyst at CreditSights.
On Wednesday, Trump threatened "severe consequences" if Putin did not agree to peace in Ukraine, while adding that a second meeting, possibly involving the Ukrainian president, could follow swiftly.
A conciliatory outcome could help calm jitters and support the rupee, while a combative outcome may renew pressure on the currency by triggering equity flows and heightening concerns over U.S. trade policy towards India.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.58; onshore one-month forward premium at 11 paise
** Dollar index at 97.72
** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $65.9 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.23%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $302.1 million worth of Indian shares on August 12
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $76.5 million worth of Indian bonds on August 12
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The Independent
9 minutes ago
- The Independent
Trump tells Fox News that Zelensky has ‘got to make a deal' with Putin after Alaska summit
President Donald Trump insists Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has 'gotta make a deal' with Russian President Vladimir Putin following his Alaska summit with the Russian leader. After the nearly three-hour meeting between the two leaders, with no agreement having been reached on the future of the war in Ukraine, Trump appeared for an interview on Fox News ' 'Hannity'. Host Sean Hannity asked what advice he would give to Zelensky and Trump replied: 'Make the deal. Gotta make a deal.' 'Russia's a very big power. And they're not,' Trump said, adding that the U.S. has supplied Ukraine with weaponry. Hours earlier, during a joint statement with Putin, where neither took questions, the U.S. president admitted that while 'great progress' had been made, he emphasized: 'There's no deal until there's a deal.' Trump noted that he planned to call Zelensky and NATO members following the meeting. On Fox News, Hannity asked Trump about next steps, alluding to the U.S. president's previous comments about a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky. 'I don't know if I trust the two of them in a room alone together. I think it would be better if you are there,' the Fox News host suggested. Trump agreed: 'They both want me there, and I'll be there. You got to see it out.' What exactly was discussed in the high stakes meeting and what was agreed remains a mystery. Both Putin and Trump used vague terms to describe the meeting and refused to take questions from reporters. Still, both men flattered one another in front of the world's cameras. The Russian president called the United States a 'dear neighbor.' He also repeated one of Trump's claims: the war in Ukraine would not have started if Trump had remained in office after the 2020 election. Trump touted his 'fantastic relationship' with his Russian counterpart and branded the meeting 'extremely productive.' The U.S. president continued laying on the praise for Putin during his interview with Hannity. 'I think we've agreed on a lot, and I can tell you, the meeting was a very warm meeting,' he said. Referring to Putin, he continued: 'He's a strong guy, he's tough as hell and all of that, but the meeting was a very warm meeting between two very important countries, and it's very good when they get along.' Earlier in the day, Trump rolled out the red carpet for Putin, greeting him warmly before they jumped into his U.S. limousine, dubbed 'The Beast.' At the end of their joint speech to press Putin suggested the pair next meet on his home turf: Moscow. 'That's an interesting one, I'll get a little heat on that one,' Trump replied. 'But I could see it possibly happening.' Following the summit, some pundits slammed Trump's performance. A Fox News host said he was 'steamrolled' by Putin while former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Trump's warm welcome of the Russian leader dealt a 'big victory' for Putin. Despite the flack, Trump told Hannity he believed on a scale of one to 10, the meeting was a 10. 'It's good when two big powers get along, especially when they're nuclear powers. We're number one, they're number two in the world. And it's a big deal. That's a big deal,' the U.S. president said.
The Independent
9 minutes ago
- The Independent
‘No deal': Putin met a tougher Trump in Alaska than the one he steamrolled in Helsinki seven years ago
Nearly eight years after Donald Trump turned in such an embarrassing performance at his first summit with Vladimir Putin that members of his own party were left struggling to defend him, critics feared he was set for a repeat performance in Alaska Friday. Putin — on what was once sovereign Russian land — after three years of isolation brought on by his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, hoping he could charm, cajole and flatter Trump into taking his side over that of Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump arrived first, and the two leaders met on a red-carpeted tarmac for a handshake. It was there that Putin got his first surprise. As the leaders walked towards waiting reporters and photographers, a noise above drew the Russian leader's attention. He looked up to see something that on any other day, in any other place, would have meant very bad things for him: The belly of an American B-2 bomber, a machine built to kill him by dropping nuclear weapons on Moscow without detection by Soviet (later Russian) air defense systems. Trump then pulled Putin into his waiting limousine for a shared ride to their talks, bypassing the armored car that had been brought from Moscow for the Russian president's use. Next, the one-on-one meeting Putin had expected became a three-on-three session with him and two of his aides across from Trump, his special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Only after that could Putin expect to have Trump sit down with a group of Russian business leaders who he'd brought with him, expecting the American leader to be swayed with the promise of investment and business opportunities in the same way other foreign leaders have curried favor with Trump. It never happened. After nearly three hours of talks, Trump and Putin walked out to face hundreds of reporters who'd gathered in expectation of a joint press conference. Speaking first, Putin appeared optimistic about the talks as he said he and Trump had come to 'agreements' and described Ukraine — the sovereign nation he invaded and has been pillaging since March 2022 — as Russia's 'brotherly nation' and claimed Russia wants to end the conflict. Through a translator, the Russian strongman repeated oft-used lines about addressing what he calls the 'primary roots, the primary causes of that conflict' — meaning his desire for Ukraine to end any ambitions to integrate with the West by joining the European Union or NATO — and said any settlement in the conflict must 'consider all legitimate concerns of Russia and to reinstate a just balance of security in Europe and in world on the whole.' But moments later, Trump torpedoed Putin's claim to have reached an agreement, telling reporters instead that there were 'many points that we agreed on' during the talks but there were still 'a couple of big ones that we haven't quite gotten there.' 'So there's no deal until there's a deal,' Trump summed it up. The president stressed that any future deal would have to receive assent from the Ukrainian government as well as America's NATO allies, and said he'd be 'calling up ... the various people that I think are appropriate,' as well as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to read them in on what transpired behind closed doors today. Trump added that the meeting, in his estimation, had been 'very productive' and included 'many points' that had been agreed to, and said there was a "good chance" of reaching some sort of accord going forward. A second meeting has been floated in recent days by Trump but has not been confirmed. Putin suggested to Trump in English: 'Next time in Moscow,' which the president said he could 'get a little heat' for but added he could see it 'possibly happening.' Trump thanked the reporters for attending and he and Putin quickly left the stage. Within the hour, both leaders' aircraft were wheels up and bound for home. There were no fireworks, there was no grand bargain rolled out, and it wasn't clear what — if anything — the two leaders had actually agreed on at all. And while some commentators were casting the lackluster result as a win for Putin because Trump hadn't rolled out the sanctions he has spent weeks threatening, the Russian leader most likely wasn't smiling as his plane climbed away from Alaska. That's because he failed to do what he'd done in Helsinki, where he'd charmed and flattered Trump into taking his side over America's own intelligence services. He'd even failed to bring Trump back to his previous anti-Ukraine worldview, that which was on display in February when he and Vice President JD Vance got into an Oval Office shouting match with Zelensky before throwing him out of the White House. Instead, he had to watch as Trump reaffirmed that the final settlement in the war he'd started would have to pass muster with Zelensky, the man who he'd hoped to kill in the opening days of the war. The years between Helsinki and Anchorage — and the months between February and now — have seen Trump go through trials (literally) and tests. For better or worse, he's no longer the neophyte, easily flattered naif who Putin made a fool of in Finland all those years ago. And though he's long had an uneasy relationship with both Zelensky and NATO, the months since that disastrous bilateral meeting have seen him grow more and more frustrated with Putin and better understand the European desire to avoid rewarding attempts at military conquest on their soil. It wasn't a perfect result, but Trump is learning. And now, Putin knows that.
Daily Mail
9 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
The handshake that shook the world: Why Putin left grinning and Trump insisted he'd stood firm after three-hour meeting to change history
In the end, the 'Don and Vlad' show ended without a big finale. After nearly three hours behind closed doors in Alaska, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin emerged like heavyweight prize fighters who had fought each other to a standstill. They proceeded to talk briefly to the millions watching with bated breath on TV but revealed no specifics of what they had discussed. The only conclusion for those in Kyiv, and in European capitals, was that the encounter had ended in stalemate, and there would be no immediate ceasefire in the Ukraine war. Putin spoke first, and seemed the happier, jauntily inviting Trump to Moscow for another meeting. He and Trump had reached an 'understanding,' Putin said, as he ominously warned Europe not to 'torpedo the nascent progress.' Trump called the summit 'very productive' but said there were a 'couple of quite big' issues not agreed. He later seemed more optimistic and rated it '10/10.' For Trump, it was undoubtedly a historic achievement to get Putin to the negotiating table at all, and a starting point for what may be a long road to peace, and a Nobel Prize. But for Kremlin watchers it looked like Putin had achieved his two main goals - a return to the world stage, and buying more time to make military gains in Ukraine. By agreeing to the meeting Putin avoided further impending U.S. sanctions, and by then not agreeing to a ceasefire he kicked the diplomatic can down the road. Putin's troops are currently advancing in Ukraine, so it was always going to be to his advantage to delay Trump's demands for a ceasefire, and seek a better deal later. Indeed, on the eve of the summit Putin bombed Ukraine yet again with a ballistic missile, and his troops advanced six miles towards the eastern town of Dobropillia. The starting points for the summit had never been entirely promising. Putin wanted Ukrainian territory but the extent of his demands had been shrouded in uncertainty, due in part to apparent previous misunderstandings with Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff. Trump was prepared for 'land swaps' but had agreed not to make any commitments without the approval of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was not invited. Zelensky wanted a ceasefire before any discussion on territory. Meanwhile, European leaders wanted post-war security guarantees for Ukraine. And Putin wanted Ukraine membership of NATO ruled out, which was a diplomatic non-starter. However, for Ukraine, and its European allies, there was some relief that no harm was done in Alaska. They had feared a repetition of Yalta, the 1945 conference where Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin decided the fate of European counties without them being represented at the negotiating table. Russia occupies about one fifth of Ukraine, including large parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, areas rich in coal and gas, and other minerals like lithium. With Zelensky not in Alaska, he and European allies were concerned about a 'Yalta 2,' with Trump handing over parts of Ukraine's territory to Putin. Trump's detractors had also cast him the role of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain at Munich in 1938. Last month, he lamented: 'We get a lot of bulls*** thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth. He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.'" Chamberlain gave the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia to Hitler and then infamously claimed that he had achieved 'peace for our time.' The following year, the world was at war. Trump showed in Alaska that he is no Chamberlain. Instead, he is a man with a strong dislike for people trying to pull the wool over his eyes. Last month, he lamented: 'We get a lot of bulls*** thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth. He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.' There was also no repeat of the 2018 meeting in Helsinki when Trump was widely criticized for siding with Putin over his own intelligence agencies, denying that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election. In Alaska, there was also no repeat of the 2018 meeting in Helsinki when Trump was widely criticized for siding with Putin over his own intelligence agencies, denying that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election. Unlike Helsinki, Trump took the decision not to meet Putin alone this time. Instead, he brought into the room a diplomatic 'good cop' and 'bad cop'. The 'good cop' was Witkoff, who has built up a rapport with Putin over several long meetings. The 'bad cop' was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has in the past savaged Putin as a 'thug and gangster.' In one sense, just being in Alaska was a victory for Putin, a man responsible for launching the largest land war in Europe since 1945. He is, officially, an internationally wanted war crimes suspect after a warrant for his arrest was issued by the International Criminal Court in March 2023. The summit allowed him to become the first Russian leader to set foot in Alaska since Tsar Alexander II sold it to the U.S. in 1867. Trump effectively brought him in from his three-and-a-half year exile as a global pariah. Despite the challenges the summit had begun in a hopeful atmosphere. On the tarmac at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Trump's Air Force One sat next to Putin's so-called 'Flying Kremlin,' an Ilyushin Il-96-300PU aircraft. Trump disembarked first and played the perfect host, standing at the end of an ultra-long red carpet as Putin descended the steps and walked briskly toward him. The American leader applauded Putin on his walk and then deployed what body language experts call a 'clasp and yank' handshake - gripping Putin's hand and pulling the Russian toward him. Putin resisted the power play and stood his ground as they locked hands for 20 seconds, with Putin telling Trump he had come to 'help.' As they walked up another stretch of red carpet, past two parked U.S. jets, there were pats on the back and a few pleasantries. Putin paused and gazed up as there was a flyby of a B2 bomber and four F-35 fighter jets. He looked impressed. The two men then stood on a stage over the words 'Alaska 2025.' Trump's carefully choreographed welcome was upended when an American reporter yelled at Putin: 'Will you stop killing civilians? Putin shrugged pointed to his ear as if couldn't hear. They then headed toward Trumps armored limousine, 'The Beast.' Putin appeared to chuckle as he got in the back with Trump for what was likely to be their only one-on-one encounter. After they arrived at the venue for the meeting they sat with advisers for photographs. Putin again appeared rattled as a reporter yelled: 'Mr Putin, will you commit to a ceasefire? Will you commit to not killing any more civilians?' He cupped his hands to his face and appeared to mouth 'I can't hear you.' Ahead of the meeting, Putin sought to smooth Trump's ego, praising his 'energetic and sincere efforts to end the conflict.' On top of that, he offered a carrot, that a deal could lead to talks on 'strategic offensive arms control,' a clear reference to a potential nuclear arms deal. Russia and the United States have by far the biggest arsenals of nuclear weapons in the world. The last remaining pillar of nuclear arms control between the two countries is the New Strategic Arms Reduction (New START) treaty, which expires in February. But, as Trump found out, pushing Putin into a ceasefire will be an uphill struggle. Not all wars end at the negotiating table. According to research by the Hague Center for Strategic Studies between 1946 and 2005 only 30 percent of wars between countries ended in a ceasefire, and only 16 percent in a peace agreement. It found 21 percent ended in a decisive victory, and 33 percent in some other form like a stalemate or ongoing low-level conflict. When there was a negotiated settlement in 50 percent of hose cases the counties were at war again within five years.
