Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on July 21

Mint

7 days ago

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open flat on Monday, tracking mixed global market cues.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a muted start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,019 level, a discount of nearly 13 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
On Friday, the domestic equity market ended lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 25,000 level.
The Sensex tanked 501.51 points, or 0.61%, to close at 81,757.73, while the Nifty 50 settled 143.05 points, or 0.57%, lower at 24,968.40.
Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex, on daily and intraday charts, is holding lower top patterns, and on weekly charts, it has formed a bearish candle, which is largely negative.
'We believe that the short-term market texture is weak, but a fresh sell-off is possible only after the dismissal of 81,600. Below this level, Sensex is likely to retest the levels of 80,700 - 80,400. On the flip side, the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 82,100 and 82,300 would act as crucial resistance zones for short-term traders,' said Amol Athawale, VP-technical Research, Kotak Securities.
He believes if Sensex manages to trade above 82,300, it could bounce back to the 20-day SMA or 83,000, while further upside potential could lift the index up to 83,400 - 83,600.
Nifty 50 witnessed sharp weakness and closed the day lower on July 18, forming a reasonable negative candle on the daily chart, which indicates an attempt of downside breakout of the immediate support.
'The bullish chart pattern like higher tops and bottoms seems to have been negated and we observe the beginning of bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms formation on the daily chart. The recent swing high of 25,255 could now be considered as a new lower top of the pattern,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 remains weak, and a slide below 24,900 levels could open more weakness down to 24,500 in this week. However, any pullback rally from here could find strong overhead resistance around 25,250.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities noted that for the first time in several sessions, Nifty 50 closed below its 50-day SMA, and there was also a negative crossover between the 9-EMA and 20-EMA, signalling a potential shift in short-term momentum.
'While the broader trend remains upward, the near-term outlook has shifted to cautious. Unless Nifty 50 reclaims 25,240 and sustains above the short-term moving averages, the trend may remain weak. Currently, a shift from a buy-on-dip stance to a more selective sell-on-rise approach would be preferred for the next few sessions,' said Mehra.
Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivative Research, SBI Securities highlighted that on the weekly chart, Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low's structure — a classic indication of downward momentum. Throughout
'The zone of 24,940 - 24,900 will act as immediate support for the Nifty 50 index as it is the confluence of the 50-day EMA level and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its prior upward rally (24,473 - 25,669). If the index slips below the 24,900 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 24,700 level. On the upside, the zone of 25,130 - 25,160 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index,' Shah said.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that on technical charts, Nifty 50 established a very bearish pattern on the daily time frame and a 'three black crows' formation on the weekly chart.
'In this situation, I suggest maintaining a 'sell on rise' strategy until we reach key support levels. Considering these aspects, we can expect Nifty 50 to gather support between 24,750 and 24,680, and face resistance near 25,100 and 25,170 in today's market session,' Ambala said.
Bank Nifty ended 545.80 points, or 0.96%, lower at 56,283.00 on Friday, and declined 0.83% for the week.
'Bank Nifty broke its short-term swing low which was around 56,590 and formed a red candle on both the daily and weekly charts, signalling weakness. The next major support for the Bank Nifty is placed near 55,940, where 50-DEMA is placed followed by 55,150, while on the upside, 57,280 will act as strong resistance. As long as the index remains below 57,280, short-term traders are advised to adopt a sell-on-bounce strategy,' said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd.
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd. noted that the Bank Nifty index slipped below its 20-day SMA and upward trendline, indicating a loss of short-term momentum.
'Bank Nifty has turned the 56,900 at 20-SMA act as an immediate resistance. If the index sustains below this, it may test crucial support at 56,150 and 55,500 in the coming week. A breakdown below these levels could extend the decline towards 55,000 – 54,800. However, a close above 56,900 may trigger short-covering, pushing the index back towards 57,200 – 57,500,' said Gour.
According to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, the broader trend remains intact with support from the 55-day EMA and the ascending trendline.
'Key support is placed at 56,000; a decisive break may lead to 55,500. On the upside, 56,700 acts as immediate resistance, and a breakout above this could reignite buying interest, targeting 57,100. Traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips approach near key support levels while maintaining caution amid prevailing market volatility,' said Singhania.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.