RBA backing 'gradual and modest' rate cuts, ANZ chief economist Richard Yetsenga declares after Michele Bullock's speech
Ms Bullock addressed the annual Anika Foundation event on Thursday where she said the RBA had expected the unemployment rate to rise in June and noted inflation was declining alongside its forecast.
"Last week brought us the latest labour market data, which confirmed that the unemployment rate increased in the June quarter," Ms Bullock said.
"Some of the coverage of the latest data suggested this was a shock, but the outcome for the June quarter was in line with the forecast we released in May.'
The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed unemployment jumped 0.2 per cent to 4.3 per cent in June, exceeding market expectations and leading some to question the recent hold.
ANZ chief economist Richard Yetsenga was in attendance, and said the RBA governor would likely deliver near term rate relief, but this would not be the start of a cutting spree.
'You would say almost certainly we'll get a cash rate cut next month,' Mr Yetsenga told Business Now on the sidelines of the event.
'But the tone of the speech today I think was consistent with easing still being pretty gradual and modest.
'The market's pricing three, nearly four rate cuts. I don't think the speech was consistent today with that many.'
Ms Bullock backed in the rationale behind the central bank's shock rate hold, telling reporters the call came down to 'timing' of inflation data.
'We expect trimmed mean inflation to fall a little further in the June quarter in year-ended terms,' the RBA governor said.
'However, the monthly CPI Indicator data, which are volatile, suggest that the fall may not be quite as much as we forecast back in May.
'We still think it will show inflation declining slowly towards 2.5 per cent, but we are looking for data to support this expectation.
'Encouragingly, as inflation has slowed, the labour market has eased only gradually and the unemployment rate is relatively low.'
Every major bank predicts the RBA will cut rates in August and forecasts at least one other cut this year.
Westpac predicts the RBA will drop rates four times up until 2026, bringing the cash rate down a full per cent, while CBA and ANZ forecast the cash rate to drop to 3.35 per cent by November.
NAB is tipping three more cuts to bring the cash rate down to 3.1 per cent by February.
The RBA held the cash rate at 3.85 per cent in July after cutting twice since the beginning of the year.
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I'm planning a trip to Iceland, aka one of the most expensive countries in the world. Can I afford to go? What would a realistic budget look like for a two-week holiday? How can I cut corners to save some cash? I decide to do the 2025 equivalent of phoning a friend — I ask my buddy ChatGPT. My initial prompt is too vague and it gives pricing in USD, which isn't particularly helpful. I refine my criteria, asking for a rough total in AUD for a fortnight in September, departing from Perth ('please', I add, because manners are still important when talking to a robot). In the blink of an eye, Chat spits out a breakdown of average costs on everything from flights to accommodation, car rental, food and activities. There are three tiers for backpacker, mid-range and luxury travel and an option to split components if I have a travelling companion. 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Others reported they used AI to quickly create itineraries, scour flights or transport and understand currency conversion. The data also gave insight into how different generations are embracing the technology — or not. Perhaps unsurprisingly, gen Z and millennials are spearheading the adoption of AI when it comes to concocting their dream vacation, with 52 per cent and 44 per cent respectively utilising the tool to plan a holiday. Meanwhile, 93 per cent of baby boomers and 76 per cent of gen X respondents said they were resistant to bringing AI into their trip arrangements. Compare the Market's Chris Ford says the stats reflect how we engage with the ever-changing tech landscape. 'Our latest data highlights a shift in the way travellers are approaching their planning, with convenience, personalisation and speed driving the adoption of innovative AI tools,' he says. 'It's likely that travellers are using these tools in addition to chatting with travel agents, conducting desktop research or seeking ideas and inspiration from social media. 'AI is evolving at a rapid rate and as it becomes more accessible and intuitive, it's not surprising that travellers are relying on new technology to help shape their dream holidays.' But the insurer warns against taking AI's word as gospel. With nothing to validate the credibility of such recommendations, Ford says travellers need to practice due diligence. 'AI can be a great starting point when planning a holiday, but always ensure you're crossing your 't's and dotting your 'i's,' he says. 'Many of these tools and services are still in their infancy stage and may not be 100 per cent accurate, so do your own research to ensure you're equipped with the right tools and information for your trip. 'The last thing we want to see is anyone getting themselves into a potentially dangerous or unsafe situation based on the recommendations from AI.' Ford makes a crucial point here about our relationship with platforms like ChatGPT. Rather than approaching them as one-stop-shop to curate every element of our holiday, we should instead consider them as a starting point to kick off deeper research. After all, isn't that part of the fun with travel — the anticipation in the lead-up, the process of discovering a destination before we have arrived and assembling a bucket list tailored to our specific taste? By asking a computer to generate an itinerary based on what's popular, we are depriving ourselves of creativity, spontaneity and adventure. We must also remember that what the AI bot spits out is dependent on the quality of our prompts. The more we refine our request, the more likely we will receive helpful answers, but even then things can go wonky. Take this from my colleague Belle: 'I asked ChatGPT to give me a child-friendly restaurant in Ubud. It sent me to a weird health food restaurant with a koi pond where you couldn't wear shoes. My feral children cleared the room within minutes. Disaster.' Then there's the cognitive dissonance that comes with considering the environmental impact of AI versus the fear of being left behind if we don't get on board with this technology. Like it or not, it is shaping and re-shaping the future at breakneck speed. We all have to decide where our (virtual) line in the sand is: what is productive and 'mindful' use based on our needs and values. For me, I'm OK with employing ChatGPT to whip up a quick budget so I can take the holiday to Iceland I've always dreamed of. But when it asks if I want activity recommendations or a detailed itinerary next, I politely decline. I'd rather leave some room for mystery and exploration. 'Thanks', I farewell my cyber mate in my sign-off (because, manners). Our collective of writers just so happens to represent the four age demographics mentioned in the research above. So what's the hot take? Stephen Scourfield — b aby boomer Trusting someone – or, in this case, something – to book a holiday (particularly a family holiday!) requires a lot of trust. If some detail is missed in the booking process (a wrong date, a badly timed connection), it will be you standing there, somewhere, trying to fix it (possibly with the family 'on your case'). Would I trust AI yet? No – not yet. Of course, I think we all know that AI is good at doing grunt work and it is up to us to check details. So AI is already useful for the broad-brush, first sweep of mapping out a holiday. But AI won't then back itself by booking it all. (That will be the game changer.) So, at this stage, AI, for me, is still a basic tool of research – not a replacement for an experienced and knowledgeable travel agent. Leyanne Baillie — gen X Although my generation is confident when it comes to using tech (even if we're not digital natives), I think AI programs would be more effort than they're worth. I know it could be a time-saver in terms of journey-planning brainstorming and getting a rough guide of options, but I'd still want to tailor my itinerary to cater to my personal taste. I don't think I'm ready to hand over the reins completely to artificial intelligence just yet. Jessie Stoelwinder — millennial I love a good travel hack, and that's how I have been approaching my use of AI. Anything that makes life a little easier and frees me up to investigate the fun stuff — where to eat, hike, shop, people-watch etc. — and I am on board. I've used ChatGPT to quickly aggregate travel data for personal trips to assist with admin, logistics and practicalities, which I will then cross-check and verify to make sure the information works for me. Recommendations, however? Word of mouth and insider intel from a human being will always win, in my opinion. Megan French — g en Z I would be open to the idea of utilising AI when planning my travels but I'd take everything it recommends with a grain of salt while still doing my own thorough research. I think it's great for foundational information-based planning early in trip preparations, such as 'what holidays are on in India during July and how is best to navigate them?' But when it comes to booking flights and accommodation, I'd go nowhere near AI … yet .
