Why Tehran's allies are staying quiet as conflict between Israel-Iran grows

Indian Express

20 hours ago

As Israel and Iran exchange missiles in their most direct confrontation in years, Iran's long-time regional allies have so far stayed away from the battlefield. Despite their strong ties to Tehran, groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Yemen's Houthis have not joined the latest round of attacks.
These groups form part of the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' a network of armed groups backed by Iran and united in opposition to Israel and the United States. But experts say recent losses, shifting political priorities, and local concerns are keeping many of them from escalating the conflict further.
Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is one of Iran's oldest and closest allies. Formed in the 1980s with Iranian support, the group has fought multiple wars with Israel and is considered a major force in the region.
After Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military facilities , reportedly killing senior Iranian officials and scientists, Hezbollah issued a strong statement. Its deputy leader, Naim Qassem, condemned the attacks and expressed 'deep sorrow' for the deaths of Iranian commanders. However, he did not indicate that Hezbollah would take part in any retaliation.
Qassem said, according to AP, that 'the resistance is ready and watching developments,' but stopped short of confirming any action. Analysts believe the group is holding back after suffering major losses in its own recent conflict with Israel.
In late 2023, Hezbollah and Israel fought a weeks-long war triggered by Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel. Israel responded with strikes that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other commanders. A US-brokered ceasefire eventually ended the fighting in November.
Andreas Krieg, a defence analyst at King's College London, told the AP that Hezbollah is now 'weakened strategically' and has lost important supply routes through Syria. He added that the group 'is focused more on survival and Lebanese domestic politics than on opening a new front.'
Several Iraqi Shiite militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, are closely aligned with Iran and have targeted US and Israeli interests in the past. But these groups, too, have held back in the current conflict.
Kataib Hezbollah issued a statement saying it was 'deeply regrettable' that Israel used Iraqi airspace for its strike on Iran. The group called on the Iraqi government to 'expel hostile forces'—a reference to US troops—but did not threaten military action.
Renad Mansour, a fellow at Chatham House, told the AP, 'These militias are part of Iraq's state defence system now. They are in a comfortable position politically and economically. They see no benefit in joining a regional war right now.'
Iraqi militias occasionally struck US bases earlier in the Gaza conflict, but have since pulled back, especially after Iran signalled a pause in escalation with the United States.
The Houthi rebels in Yemen are the only group that has continued sporadic attacks, mostly targeting Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis have said their actions are in support of Palestinians in Gaza and in response to Israeli aggression.
However, their location and limited military range mean their impact on Israel is mostly symbolic. According to Reuters, the group lacks the deep-strike capabilities of Hezbollah and cannot directly influence the Israel-Iran conflict.
The current situation suggests that Iran's allies may no longer act in unison. While they share political alignment and common enemies, the groups operate with different goals and limitations.
Krieg told AP, 'It's no longer a true axis—it's a loose network. Each group is looking out for its own interests now.'
Still, analysts warn that the situation could shift quickly. As Hezbollah-linked analyst Qassem Qassir told, 'A response from Hezbollah is not off the table. It depends on how the conflict evolves.'