How Israel's Iran strikes might open 'Pandora's box' for the region — and the U.S.
If Iran did decide to retaliate against American interests, that would likely mean some form of 'major creep' into Iraq or the Gulf, Geranmayeh, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told NBC News. And that's less likely, according to her and other analysts, because of the rapprochement between Tehran and previous foes such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar in recent years.
Despite Israel's overwhelming military superiority, Netanyahu could be in a tricky spot, as he does not have the capabilities to eliminate Iran's nuclear facilities alone, according to Dina Esfandiary, the Middle East geoeconomics lead for Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg's internal research division.
With its U.S.-funded armed forces, Israel 'can do considerable damage' she said. 'But it can't be successful' in its stated objective of 'crippling Iran's nuclear program' without 'the U.S. coming on board,' Esfandiary said.
Principally, it doesn't have the means to target the deeply buried underground facilities of Iran's nuclear program, experts say.
In short, as Rouzbeh Parsi, director of the Middle East program at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, put it on X: 'Israel has always been capable of starting this war. But it has been equally clear that it cannot finish it on its own.'
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Sky News
28 minutes ago
- Sky News
Israel-Iran live: Iran warns strikes 'will spread to US bases' after retaliatory attack on Israel; '60 killed' in Tehran
Iranian state TV says 20 children are among 60 killed in Tehran, while deaths and dozens of injuries have been reported in Israel after Iran struck overnight. Watch how Iran's retaliatory attack unfolded and follow the latest updates below. 09:40:01 Israeli attacks likely to unite Iranian people behind leaders, says former British diplomat It's unlikely Iran's population will want to see regime change as a result of Israeli attacks. That's the view of Lord Ricketts, a former British diplomat who served as the UK's first national security adviser between 2010 ad 2012. While the regime is "very unpopular" in Iran, he said the immediate impact of Israel's strikes may boost those in power. "Clearly, Netanyahu and many people in Israel would love to see the back of the mullahs and the ayatollahs, and they are very unpopular in Iran," he said. "My question is, would they want to see the regime change because of this attack from Israel? I rather doubt that. "I think the short-term effect will be rather to bring the population behind the leaders in the circumstances of a massive attack on the country in that time." 09:19:13 Around 60 people killed in Israeli attack, including 20 children - Iranian state TV According to Iranian state TV, 20 children are among 60 people killed in an Israeli attack. The report says the strike was on a housing complex in the capital, Tehran. 09:11:01 More details on two people killed in central Israel We have some more information to bring you now on reports of an Iranian attack on the central city of Rishon Lezion. Two people were killed, according to Israel's paramedic service Magen David Adom, and 19 injured (see our 5.40am post). MDA has confirmed a man aged around 45 and a woman around 60 were the two who died. "A woman around 60 was rescued without signs of life, a man around 45 was evacuated in critical condition while undergoing CPR and was later pronounced dead," the service said. Of the 19 hurt in the attack, 16 have minor injuries, two have been moderately injured and one has a serious injury, MDA added. "This was a difficult and complex scene, and we are continuing to search to ensure no one remains trapped," the service said. 08:53:01 'Limited damage' to nuclear facility, Iran says Iran says its Fordow nuclear facility sustained "limited damage" during Israeli attacks. In comments reported by semi-official ISNA news agency this morning, a spokesperson for the country's atomic energy organisation said: "There has been limited damage to some areas at the Fordow enrichment site. "We had already moved a significant part of the equipment and materials out, and there was no extensive damage and there are no contamination concerns." Sky News verified sites struck by Israel as of last night, which you can see below. 08:16:01 In pictures: Rubble in Israeli city after Iranian attack This is the scene in Ramat Gan, a city in the Tel Aviv district, following an Iranian attack there. Several buildings were struck, including an apartment block in a residential neighbourhood. 08:01:33 Iran warns strikes will continue - and conflict will 'spread' to US bases Iran's Fars news agency reports senior military officials have warned strikes on Israel will continue. They are also quoted as saying the conflict will spread to US bases in the region over the coming days. "This confrontation will not end with last night's limited actions and Iran's strikes will continue," Fars cited an unnamed official as saying. "And this action will be very painful and regrettable for the aggressors." 07:59:55 Drones shot down in latest attacks, says Israel Following alerts sounded in Israel earlier this morning - see our 6.34am post - the military has provided an update. Reporting incoming drone attacks, the IDF has said two were shot down in the Upper Galilee area, in northern Israel. More alerts were activated over concerns around falling fragments. In a separate wave, Israel said it downed a "number" of drones in the Judea and Dead Sea areas. 07:28:54 Israel claims 'dozens' of jets flew over Tehran In a statement released in the past few minutes, Israel's air force commander has said its planes hit targets in the Iranian capital overnight. Major General Tomer Bar said Israel attacked "hundreds of targets", including anti-aircraft equipment. "We carried out a wave of precise strikes of operational and national significance over the skies of Tehran," he said, adding "dozens" of Israeli jets flew over the capital. "We chose to act in the face of an existential threat to the security of our citizens, with professionalism, determination and precision," he said. "The air force will continue to operate in all arenas, both defensively and offensively."
The Independent
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The Independent
2 hours ago
- The Independent
‘We will show no mercy': Iran accuses Israel of starting a ‘war' which many fear will engulf Middle East
Iran's supreme leader has accused Israel of starting a war with its unprecedented attack, warning Tehran will 'show no mercy'. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel had made a 'grave error' that would bring them 'to ruin', as Iranian missiles lit up the skies above Israeli cities on Friday night. 'They are the ones who have started this and have begun a war,' he said. 'We will show them no mercy. Life will definitely become bitter for them.' The supreme leader's warning comes after Benjamin Netanyahu launched 'Operation Rising Lion' in the early hours of Friday (13 June) with Israel's largest-ever salvo on Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile facilities—attacks that also wiped out many of Iran's most senior military commanders. The Israeli military said it struck over 200 targets in total - with a second round of strikes repeated on Friday evening - including on Iran's sprawling underground nuclear facility at Natanz. Israel and Iran separately confirmed that the barrage killed some of Iran's highest-ranking officers, including Chief of Staff General Mohamed Bagheri and Hossein Salami, the leader of the powerful Revolutionary Guards . Netanyahu has warned that 'more is on the way,' and, in a direct appeal to the Iranian people, appeared to incite them to rise up against their leaders. 'The regime does not know what hit them, or what will hit them. It has never been weaker,' he said. 'This is your opportunity to stand up and let your voices be heard.' The shock confrontation between the arch foes that has ignited fears of a Middle East-wide conflict in a region already on a knife edge. Iran said six prominent nuclear scientists and several of its most senior commanders were killed during Israel's strikes, including the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the armed forces' chief of staff, and the army's deputy commander-in-chief, Gholamali Rashid. Israel also claimed it 'eliminated' the commanders of Iran's air force and drone forces. Iran's United Nations envoy said in total 78 people were killed and more than 320 injured most of them civilians. The daring offensive allegedly saw Mossad operatives deep within Iranian territory conduct a series of covert sabotage missions targeting the country's air defence systems, including by building a drone base near Tehran, security sources told Israeli media. Tehran has responded by launching two salvos at Israel, with the latest on Friday evening lighting up the skies above cities including Tel Aviv. Iran's state media agency IRNA said Iran launched 'hundreds' of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation. But Israeli military sought to downplay the response, saying two barrages of surface-to-surface missiles were launched amounting to 'fewer than 100' projectiles. 'Most were intercepted by air defence systems or failed to reach their targets,' it added. The Israeli military has called its operation in Iran 'pre-emptive,' claiming it had been forced to act by new intelligence showing that Iran was 'approaching the point of no return' in the development of a nuclear weapon. However, a source familiar with US intelligence reports said there had been no recent change in Washington's assessment that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and that Ayatollah Khamenei had not authorised a resumption of the programme halted in 2003. Israel - that has long fought a shadow war with Iran - has made it repeatedly clear its intentions to wipe out Iran's nuclear capability. While Iran insists its nuclear programme is intended merely for energy purposes, Tehran's leadership has repeatedly called Israel a 'cancer' in the Middle East. The US administration initially distanced itself from the operation by saying Israel took 'unilateral action against Iran'. Later President Donald Trump, issued his own stark warning to Tehran, saying it must make a nuclear deal now or face 'slaughter.' Washington had been expected to hold a sixth round of negotiations with Iran on Sunday in Oman over Tehran's rapidly advancing nuclear programme - talks which will likely not go ahead now. 'I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal," Trump said Friday morning. 'There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left.' Both the US and UK denied involvement in the Israeli strikes—although US officials later told Reuters that US military ground-based systems helped shoot down Iranian missiles aimed at Israel. While Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened an emergency COBRA meeting and urged restraint, Trump labelled the Israeli attack 'excellent' and claimed Washington had been informed beforehand. 'We gave them a chance [to strike a nuclear deal] and they didn't take it,' he said. 'They got hit hard—very hard. They got hit about as hard as you're going to get hit. And there's more to come. A lot more.' 'We knew everything, and I tried to save Iran humiliation and death. I tried very hard because I would have loved to have seen a deal worked out. They can still work out a deal—it's not too late.' There are concerns the conflict could spark a regional war, with the Middle East already a tinderbox after 20 months of Israel's unprecedented bombardment of Gaza, which followed the 7 October 2023 attack by Iranian-backed Hamas. During that time, Israel has also decimated Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon and traded fire with the Houthis in Yemen, again Tehran's lay, who had been targeting Gulf shipping in retaliation for the Gaza war. One fear is that the confrontation could ignite fighting between the region's most powerful militaries and armed factions, risking wider destabilisation. Iran's Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned on Wednesday that if attacked, Tehran would retaliate by hitting US bases in the region . Acknowledging the heightened risk, the US on Wednesday announced the partial closure of its embassy in Baghdad and authorised the 'voluntary departure' of military dependents from bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. In Baghdad, Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi analyst fellow at Century International, said the Iraqi government could only hope it could 'avoid becoming a battleground.' 'If the escalation continues with Israel, then logically, Iraq would be one of the places where Iran might attack U.S. interests,' he told The Independent. 'We don't have any serious air defence systems. We can't prevent Israeli jets or drones from flying over Iraqi territory. We can't stop Iran from launching missiles from our airspace. 'Iraq is in a difficult position. It is not militarily capable of preventing other countries from using its territory. There is a lot of risk that escalation could play out here.' The same concern was echoed by analysts in Syria, where a nascent government led by Islamist fighter turned president Ahmed al-Sharaa is attempting to rebuild the country after ousting Iran-backed autocrat Bashar al-Assad in December. There are fears that Iran-aligned paramilitaries in Syria still present could use this moment to attack Israel and derail the efforts of the new rebel-led administration. Israel has repeatedly bombed military positions in Syria since Assad's overthrow—most recently accusing an unknown group of firing into Israel from Syria just two weeks ago. US military sites and shipping in the Persian Gulf could also become targets. The UK's maritime agency warned this week that increased tensions in the Middle East could impact shipping in critical waterways and advised vessels to exercise caution when travelling through the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz, which all border Iran. In Jordan, meanwhile, the military scrambled to intercept a number of missiles and drones that entered its airspace from Iran and were likely to fall on Jordanian territory, including populated areas. Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz was damaged in the overnight attack, with the UN's nuclear watchdog reporting that the above-ground enrichment plant had been destroyed. However, experts reviewing commercial satellite imagery said the damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure from the initial wave of Israeli strikes appeared limited. Investigations have not shown any radioactive or chemical contamination outside the site, Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation said. Still, the UN's nuclear watchdog warned that any military action endangering the safety of nuclear facilities carries grave consequences for Iran, the region, and beyond. Further Israeli strikes were reported on Friday, including on Iran's military airport in Tabriz and the Shiite holy city of Qom, according to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency. Holly Dagres, an Iran specialist and senior fellow at the Washington Institute, warned 'Tehran won't bend the knee to pressure' . 'President Donald Trump seems to think that these crippling Israeli strikes will force the Islamic Republic to capitulate, when it is a revolutionary state that feeds off of conflict with its adversaries.'
