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Time of India
7 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Trump's EU tariff threat could cause economic damage beyond Europe
LONDON: Is it a negotiating tactic, a credible threat or a howl of rage? President Donald Trump 's threat to impose a 50% tariff on all goods coming into the United States from the European Union starting next weekend was the latest zag after several zigs on trade policy that have befuddled financial markets, businesses and political leaders around the world. "No one was expecting this," said Agathe Demarais , a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "We essentially don't have a clue as to what it means." by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like New Container Houses Indonesia (Prices May Surprise You) Container House | Search ads Search Now Undo Whatever the strategy -- or lack of one -- the economic fallout on the American, European and global economies will be severe if Trump follows through. Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone economist at ING, a Dutch bank, warned that such tariff levels could lead to a dreaded combination of higher inflation and slower growth in the United States. Europe could be pushed into a recession, and global growth would fall. Live Events At the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Julian Hinz, a trade researcher, calculated that U.S. economic growth would drop 1.5%. The magnitude of this latest tariff jolt is significantly higher than the 20% "reciprocal" tariff that Trump announced for the European Union in April and later paused. (That figure would have been added on top of an across-the-board tariff of 10%.) Many analysts said Trump's announcement was clearly a bid to pressure Europe, a region that he has treated with particular scorn. Yet they agreed that the president's Friday morning post on Truth Social had caused damage. The scale of the increase in tariffs, the capricious manner in which they were threatened and the growing size of U.S. budget deficits are unsettling financial markets, said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics. A week earlier, Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing concern over Washington's ability to limit rising debt levels. "This all points to concerns about policy direction in the U.S. lacking credibility," Shearing said, and that the "guardrails are coming off." Companies across the board are already raising their assessments of the riskiness of investments in the United States, a sign that uncertainty is dimming the allure of investing in America, said Mary E. Lovely, an emeritus professor of economics at Syracuse University. "One of the president's big goals is to increase investment," she said. "But who wants to do manufacturing here when the president at any moment might put high taxes on things that you buy to produce, and you might be subject to retaliation from the markets into which you will sell?" The shift between oversize threats and reversals has become familiar. Trump imposed high global tariffs and then quickly postponed them when the bond market shuddered. He threatened China with exorbitant tariffs of 145%. When China hit back with a 125% tariff on U.S. goods, Trump took a step back. Two weeks ago, the two governments issued joint statements that they would suspend the highest tariffs for 90 days and negotiate. That experience is likely to bolster Europe's resolve. "We've already seen what's happened with China, which is that he climbed down," said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. If you hit back hard, markets will get nervous, and the president will back off. "That's the message" that the Europeans have absorbed, he said. But as several analysts pointed out, it's hard for the Europeans to negotiate when Trump has not made it at all clear what he wants. And the notion that Europe could be pressured to quickly make concessions shows a deep misunderstanding of what it takes to reach a consensus among the European Union's 27 very different members. Still, European officials have prepared a raft of countermeasures in response to higher U.S. tariffs. Roughly a fifth of EU exports go the United States, and about the same share of American exports go to the European Union. "We're playing for big stakes here," Obstfeld said. "There's the ability of both sides to do substantial damage to the other." In addition to wide-ranging tariffs on automobiles, food items and automobile parts, the European Union has threatened to put tariffs on the American services sector. That is a serious vulnerability since service industries like technology, finance and travel make up the bulk of the U.S. economy and European consumers are major users of them. If Trump does end up imposing 50% tariffs on June 1, Ireland -- the European country with the most trade with the United States -- would be hit the hardest, with an estimated 4% decline in total economic output, according to Capital Economics. Germany's gross domestic product is projected to shrink by around 1.5%, Italy's by 1.2%, France by 0.75% and Spain by 0.5%. To some degree, the policy swings coming out of the White House may simply depend on which adviser was the last to speak to the president, said Mark Blyth, a political economist at Brown University. Given Trump's repeated claim that the European Union has long been "ripping off" the United States, it's worth remembering that in 2008, both had the same size economies, Blyth added. Now, Europe's economy is one-third smaller. "How can you be ripping someone off," Blyth asked, "if you're a third poorer than them?"
Straits Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Trump's 50% EU tariff threat could cause economic damage beyond Europe
The Custom House in Dublin last year. A 50 per cent tariff would hit the continent hard, hurt the US economy and slow growth globally. PHOTO: THERESE AHERNE/NYTIMES LONDON – Is it a negotiating tactic, a credible threat or a howl of rage? US President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 50 per cent tariff on all goods coming into the United States from the European Union starting next weekend was the latest zag after several zigs on trade policy that have befuddled financial markets, businesses and political leaders around the world. 'No one was expecting this,' said Agathe Demarais, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 'We essentially don't have a clue as to what it means.' Whatever the strategy – or lack of one – the economic fallout on the American, European and global economies will be severe if Trump follows through. Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone economist at Dutch bank ING warned that such tariff levels could lead to a dreaded combination of higher inflation and slower growth in the US. Europe could be pushed into a recession, and global growth would fall. At the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Julian Hinz, a trade researcher, calculated that US economic growth would drop 1.5 per cent. The magnitude of this latest tariff jolt is significantly higher than the 20 per cent 'reciprocal' tariff that Trump announced for the EU in April and later paused. (That figure would have been added on top of an across-the-board global tariff of 10 per cent.) Many analysts said Trump's announcement was clearly a bid to pressure Europe, a region that he has treated with particular scorn. Yet they agreed that the president's announcement had caused damage. The scale of the increase in tariffs, the capricious manner in which they were threatened and the growing size of US budget deficits are unsettling financial markets, said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics. A week earlier, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, citing concern over Washington's ability to limit rising debt levels. 'This all points to concerns about policy direction in the US lacking credibility,' Mr Shearing said, and that the 'guardrails are coming off.' Companies across the board are already raising their assessments of the riskiness of investments in the US, a sign that uncertainty is dimming the allure of investing in America, said Mary E. Lovely, an emeritus professor of economics at Syracuse University. 'One of the president's big goals is to increase investment,' she said. 'But who wants to do manufacturing here when the president at any moment might put high taxes on things that you buy to produce, and you might be subject to retaliation from the markets into which you will sell?' The shift between oversize threats and reversals has become familiar. Mr Trump imposed high global tariffs and then quickly postponed them when the bond market shuddered. He threatened China with exorbitant tariffs of 145 per cent. When China hit back with a 125 per cent tariff on US goods, Trump took a step back. Two weeks ago, the two governments issued joint statements that they would suspend the highest tariffs for 90 days and negotiate. That experience is likely to bolster Europe's resolve. 'We've already seen what's happened with China, which is that he climbed down,' said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. If you hit back hard, markets will get nervous, and Trump will back off. 'That's the message' that the Europeans have absorbed, he said. But as several analysts pointed out, it's hard for the Europeans to negotiate when Trump has not made it at all clear what he wants. And the notion that Europe could be pressured to quickly make concessions shows a deep misunderstanding of what it takes to reach a consensus among the EU's 27 very different members. Still, European officials have prepared a raft of countermeasures in response to higher US tariffs. Roughly a fifth of EU exports go the US, and about the same share of American exports go to the European Union. 'We're playing for big stakes here,' Mr Obstfeld said. 'There's the ability of both sides to do substantial damage to the other.' In addition to wide-ranging tariffs on automobiles, food items and automobile parts, the EU has threatened to put tariffs on the American services sector. That is a serious vulnerability since service industries like technology, finance and travel make up the bulk of the US economy and European consumers are major users of them. If Trump does end up imposing 50 per cent tariffs on June 1, Ireland – the European country with the most trade with the United States – would be hit the hardest, with an estimated 4 per cent decline in total economic output, according to Capital Economics. Germany's gross domestic product is projected to shrink by around 1.5 per cent, Italy's by 1.2 per cent, France by 0.75 per cent and Spain by 0.5 per cent. To some degree, the policy swings coming out of the White House may simply depend on which adviser was the last to speak to the president, said Mark Blyth, a political economist at Brown University. Given Trump's repeated claim that the EU has long been 'ripping off' the US, it's worth remembering that in 2008, both had the same size economies, Mr Blyth added. Now, Europe's economy is one-third smaller. 'How can you be ripping someone off,' Mr Blyth asked, 'if you're a third poorer than them?' NYTIMES Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump's impact on European politics: Rise of the right and liberals pushing back
If this past weekend in European politics is an indicator of anything, it's that the "Trump effect" is real, and its reverberations are unpredictable. Three European Union countries held elections on Sunday -- Romania, Poland and Portugal -- with the results failing to show any clear trend for the future of European politics. The elections did, however, indicate the American president's growing influence on the continent. The disparate responses from voters in all three countries -- and the lack of any decisive victory for any one party or candidate in Portugal or Poland -- hint that the political polarization that has roiled the U.S. over the past decade is a global trend, not merely an American one. As to whether President Donald Trump and the "Make America Great Again" movement swirling around him can establish European avatars, the question remains an open one. MORE: Germany to move toward 'independence' from US, new leader says "I don't know if I have a firm answer," Celia Belin, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and head of its Paris office, told ABC News. "At the moment, we are all monitoring what is happening and how this influence can establish itself." "It's very early," Belin added. "This is an ongoing phenomenon." While it's unclear what the extent of Trump's impact on European politics will ultimately be, Belin said the impact is "stronger" than it was two years ago. Trump's influence -- indirect and direct -- has given populist movements like Germany's Alternative for Germany party, Poland's nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and Portugal's far-right Chega party a clear boost, evident in recent elections in each country. "If I am to compare with two years ago, for example, it is stronger, it is more united, it gives inspiration to a ton of populist nationalist leaders in Europe," Belin said. "It's getting stronger. That's the direction it's going in right now." The groundswell of grievances that carried Trump to the Oval Office twice is not merely an American phenomenon and manifests differently in individual nations. Concerns over globalization, immigration, inequality, the cost of living, low rates of economic growth, progressivism and national identity are near-universal in the Western democratic world. Trump seized upon those conditions in the U.S. and right-wing leaders in Europe are seeking to do the same. This week's election results in Romania, Poland and Portugal, however, suggest the translation of Trumpism into European political languages remains incomplete. In Romania, voters opted for Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan's pro-Europe, pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine platform. Dan won with around 54% of the vote. Dan's opponent -- Trump supporter George Simion, who courted the MAGA movement and even visited the U.S. during his campaign -- came up short, though he vowed to continue "our fight for freedom and our great values along with other patriots, sovereignists and conservatives all over the world." In Poland, the presidential election saw liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski secure an unexpectedly tight victory in the first round of voting with around 31% of the vote, beating out right-wing rival Karol Nawrocki -- who was personally endorsed by Trump -- who had 29.5% of the vote. The two men will go into the second round of voting on June 1, hoping to draw voters from other minor candidates, among them a significant bloc which voted for far-right firebrand Slawomir Mentzen, who came third with 14.8%. Piotr Buras, a senior policy fellow at ECFR at the head of its Warsaw office, told ABC News that Trump has loomed large over the election. Nawrocki framed himself as the Trump-friendly candidate, along with his backers in the Law and Justice party, criticizing Trzaskowski's Civic Platform party and Prime Minister Donald Tusk for allegedly undermining Polish-American relations. "We used to have a nationwide consensus on America," Buras said, with voters generally warm to the idea of close ties with Washington, D.C. "Now, because of this ideological divide in Poland, because of the U.S. and because of Trump's approach to Europe, Poland is suddenly divided on how to go about America," he added. In Portugal, meanwhile, the far-right Chega party gained a record 22.6% share of the vote, blowing open the long-standing two-party domination of the country's political scene even though it was unable to overhaul the ruling center-right Democratic Alliance. "I am not going to stop until I become the prime minister of Portugal," Chega leader Andre Ventura -- who was among the foreign politicians invited to Trump's second inauguration -- said. Such confidence in defeat may be buoyed by the strong foundations populist parties and candidates are putting down in Europe. Across the continent, far-right groups are winning historically large chunks of the electorate and dominating political debates, even without securing the reins of power. In the U.K., the right-wing Reform party recorded a stunning performance in the May local elections, winning hundreds of council seats and leaving leader Nigel Farage -- well-known for his cozy relationship with Trump and the MAGA movement -- to declare an end to the traditional dominance of Britain's two major parties. In Germany's February parliamentary election, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party converted years of growing popularity to win around 21% of the vote and become the second-largest party in the Bundestag. U.S. Vice President JD Vance conducted his first foreign trip in his new position to Germany in February, shortly before the election, speaking at the Munich Security Conference on February 14. In his speech addressing the annual security conference, Vance criticized Europe for hindering free speech, suggesting the conference's decision to ban AfD members from attending was a form of censorship. MORE: Video Vance sparks controversy by criticizing European allies "In Britain, and across Europe, free speech, I fear, is in retreat," Vance said. "I believe that dismissing people, dismissing their concerns, or, worse yet, shutting down media, shutting down elections, or shutting people out of the political process protects nothing. In fact, it is the most surefire way to destroy democracy." Many political analysts considered Vance's remarks to be a tacit endorsement of AfD from the Trump administration. And in France, President Emmanuel Macron has thus far held off the persistent challenge for the presidency from far-right leader Marine Le Pen and the National Rally, but he was unable to stop the party from becoming the largest in the National Assembly in 2024. Only a shaky minority government has kept the party out of the prime minister's office. The insurgent parties are coordinating. Leaders have increasingly been drawn to American conservative events, such as the Conservative Political Action Conference -- the first-ever European installment of which was held in Budapest, Hungary, in 2022. And this year, right-wingers gathered for the Make Europe Great Again conference in Madrid in February, organized by Spain's far-right VOX party. Buras noted rumors that Vice President JD Vance may even attend a planned CPAC event in Poland in late May, in what could only be interpreted as a show of support for Nawrocki. The event raises the prospect of American "interference almost, or at least influence, from the U.S.," Buras said. Trump is just as divisive abroad as he is at home. Indeed, polls consistently indicate that many European voters are skeptical of, unsettled by or outright hostile to the American president. There is, then, no guarantee that a MAGA association will put foreign populists in power. Recent elections in Canada and Australia, for example, saw center-left establishment parties secure victory against conservative opponents they sought to smear as Trumpian. Trump's return to the White House "has woken up the anti-populist or anti-nationalist movements," Belin said. "It gives them a foil. … You want to mobilize your electorate and use the U.S. of Donald Trump as a sort of scarecrow -- the mobilization effect goes in two directions." "It fuels the extremist base and so it excites a lot of people, but it also fuels the other side and it also frightens the middle," Belin said. Trump's impact on European politics: Rise of the right and liberals pushing back originally appeared on
21-05-2025
- Politics
Trump's impact on European politics: Rise of the right and liberals pushing back
If this past weekend in European politics is an indicator of anything, it's that the "Trump effect" is real, and its reverberations are unpredictable. Three European Union countries held elections on Sunday -- Romania, Poland and Portugal -- with the results failing to show any clear trend for the future of European politics. The elections did, however, indicate the American president's growing influence on the continent. The disparate responses from voters in all three countries -- and the lack of any decisive victory for any one party or candidate in Portugal or Poland -- hint that the political polarization that has roiled the U.S. over the past decade is a global trend, not merely an American one. As to whether President Donald Trump and the "Make America Great Again" movement swirling around him can establish European avatars, the question remains an open one. "I don't know if I have a firm answer," Celia Belin, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and head of its Paris office, told ABC News. "At the moment, we are all monitoring what is happening and how this influence can establish itself." "It's very early," Belin added. "This is an ongoing phenomenon." While it's unclear what the extent of Trump's impact on European politics will ultimately be, Belin said the impact is "stronger" than it was two years ago. Trump's influence -- indirect and direct -- has given populist movements like Germany's Alternative for Germany party, Poland's nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party and Portugal's far-right Chega party a clear boost, evident in recent elections in each country. "If I am to compare with two years ago, for example, it is stronger, it is more united, it gives inspiration to a ton of populist nationalist leaders in Europe," Belin said. "It's getting stronger. That's the direction it's going in right now." The groundswell of grievances that carried Trump to the Oval Office twice is not merely an American phenomenon and manifests differently in individual nations. Concerns over globalization, immigration, inequality, the cost of living, low rates of economic growth, progressivism and national identity are near-universal in the Western democratic world. Trump seized upon those conditions in the U.S. and right-wing leaders in Europe are seeking to do the same. Election week in Europe This week's election results in Romania, Poland and Portugal, however, suggest the translation of Trumpism into European political languages remains incomplete. In Romania, voters opted for Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan's pro-Europe, pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine platform. Dan won with around 54% of the vote. Dan's opponent -- Trump supporter George Simion, who courted the MAGA movement and even visited the U.S. during his campaign -- came up short, though he vowed to continue "our fight for freedom and our great values along with other patriots, sovereignists and conservatives all over the world." In Poland, the presidential election saw liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski secure an unexpectedly tight victory in the first round of voting with around 31% of the vote, beating out right-wing rival Karol Nawrocki -- who was personally endorsed by Trump -- who had 29.5% of the vote. The two men will go into the second round of voting on June 1, hoping to draw voters from other minor candidates, among them a significant bloc which voted for far-right firebrand Slawomir Mentzen, who came third with 14.8%. Piotr Buras, a senior policy fellow at ECFR at the head of its Warsaw office, told ABC News that Trump has loomed large over the election. Nawrocki framed himself as the Trump-friendly candidate, along with his backers in the Law and Justice party, criticizing Trzaskowski's Civic Platform party and Prime Minister Donald Tusk for allegedly undermining Polish-American relations. "We used to have a nationwide consensus on America," Buras said, with voters generally warm to the idea of close ties with Washington, D.C. "Now, because of this ideological divide in Poland, because of the U.S. and because of Trump's approach to Europe, Poland is suddenly divided on how to go about America," he added. In Portugal, meanwhile, the far-right Chega party gained a record 22.6% share of the vote, blowing open the long-standing two-party domination of the country's political scene even though it was unable to overhaul the ruling center-right Democratic Alliance. "I am not going to stop until I become the prime minister of Portugal," Chega leader Andre Ventura -- who was among the foreign politicians invited to Trump's second inauguration -- said. Making Europe great again? Such confidence in defeat may be buoyed by the strong foundations populist parties and candidates are putting down in Europe. Across the continent, far-right groups are winning historically large chunks of the electorate and dominating political debates, even without securing the reins of power. In the U.K., the right-wing Reform party recorded a stunning performance in the May local elections, winning hundreds of council seats and leaving leader Nigel Farage -- well-known for his cozy relationship with Trump and the MAGA movement -- to declare an end to the traditional dominance of Britain's two major parties. In Germany's February parliamentary election, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party converted years of growing popularity to win around 21% of the vote and become the second-largest party in the Bundestag. U.S. Vice President JD Vance conducted his first foreign trip in his new position to Germany in February, shortly before the election, speaking at the Munich Security Conference on February 14. In his speech addressing the annual security conference, Vance criticized Europe for hindering free speech, suggesting the conference's decision to ban AfD members from attending was a form of censorship. "In Britain, and across Europe, free speech, I fear, is in retreat," Vance said. "I believe that dismissing people, dismissing their concerns, or, worse yet, shutting down media, shutting down elections, or shutting people out of the political process protects nothing. In fact, it is the most surefire way to destroy democracy." Many political analysts considered Vance's remarks to be a tacit endorsement of AfD from the Trump administration. And in France, President Emmanuel Macron has thus far held off the persistent challenge for the presidency from far-right leader Marine Le Pen and the National Rally, but he was unable to stop the party from becoming the largest in the National Assembly in 2024. Only a shaky minority government has kept the party out of the prime minister's office. The insurgent parties are coordinating. Leaders have increasingly been drawn to American conservative events, such as the Conservative Political Action Conference -- the first-ever European installment of which was held in Budapest, Hungary, in 2022. And this year, right-wingers gathered for the Make Europe Great Again conference in Madrid in February, organized by Spain's far-right VOX party. Buras noted rumors that Vice President JD Vance may even attend a planned CPAC event in Poland in late May, in what could only be interpreted as a show of support for Nawrocki. The event raises the prospect of American "interference almost, or at least influence, from the U.S.," Buras said. MAGA blowback Trump is just as divisive abroad as he is at home. Indeed, polls consistently indicate that many European voters are skeptical of, unsettled by or outright hostile to the American president. There is, then, no guarantee that a MAGA association will put foreign populists in power. Recent elections in Canada and Australia, for example, saw center-left establishment parties secure victory against conservative opponents they sought to smear as Trumpian. Trump's return to the White House "has woken up the anti-populist or anti-nationalist movements," Belin said. "It gives them a foil. … You want to mobilize your electorate and use the U.S. of Donald Trump as a sort of scarecrow -- the mobilization effect goes in two directions."
Los Angeles Times
19-05-2025
- Politics
- Los Angeles Times
Right-wing populists hopeful after first round of Polish presidential election
WARSAW — There's a way to go yet in Poland's presidential election but Sunday's first round was a good day for candidates on the political right and far right, and it flashed a big red warning signal for the moderate government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Tusk's candidate, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, and a conservative opponent backed by the Law and Justice party, Karol Nawrocki, emerged ahead in a pack of 13 candidates. They were extremely close. Trzaskowski got 31.36% of the votes and Nawrocki — who was endorsed by U.S. President Trump — won a better-than-expected 29.54%, according to final results released Monday morning. Poles now head to a nail-biting second round on June 1, with much resting on the outcome of the runoff. 'The campaign in the next two weeks will be very polarizing and brutal — a confrontation of two visions of Poland: pro-EU, liberal and progressive versus nationalist, Trumpist and conservative,' said Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. The race is not only for the presidency, an office with the power to influence foreign policy and veto laws. It will also seal the fate of Tusk's efforts to repair the country's relationship with European allies after years of rule by conservatives from Law and Justice, which was often in conflict with Brussels. Sunday's election came on the same day that Romania's centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, won the presidency in a country that, like Poland, is located along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union, where Russia has waged a three-year war in Ukraine. Dan managed to overcome a threat from a hard-right anti-Ukrainian nationalist, offering relief to those in Europe worried about a stance viewed as helpful to Moscow. Tusk has been trying to reverse changes to the judicial branch that were considered undemocratic by the EU, but his efforts have been hampered by outgoing conservative President Andrzej Duda. Many centrist and progressive voters are disappointed that Tusk has not delivered on other promises, like liberalizing the restrictive abortion law. He has also been criticized for the heavy-handed way in which he took over control of public media from Law and Justice, and the continued politicization of taxpayer-funded public media. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have wasted no time as they head toward the finish line. They got out on the streets early Monday to meet with voters. Trzaskowski handed out sweet yeast buns on the streets of Kielce, and Nawrocki distributed donuts and posed for selfies with supporters in Gdansk. Trzaskowski, who ran and barely lost to Duda in 2020, was long considered this year's front-runner. After Sunday's vote, he can't be sure. Nawrocki declared himself 'full of energy and enthusiasm on the way to victory' in a statement to the media, adding that 'probably all of Poland saw that Rafal Trzaskowski is a candidate who can't cope.' Meanwhile, Trzaskowski vowed to fight until the end. 'I will try to convince young people and all those who voted differently that it is worth voting for a normal Poland, not a radical Poland,' Trzaskowski told reporters in Karzysko-Kamienna. The two men's political fates rest to a large extent with voters who chose other candidates in the first round, and how they will vote can be difficult to predict. Experts say there isn't an automatic transfer of votes from certain candidates to others; some who don't get their chosen candidate might not vote at all. Trzaskowski has a lot to worry about. More than 20% of voters opted for candidates on the far right, whose conservative and nationalistic worldviews overlap with Nawrocki's. Slawomir Mentzen of the hard-right Confederation Party won 14.8% and — in one of the biggest electoral surprises — a far-right extremist, Grzegorz Braun, won over 6%. Both have embraced antisemitic and anti-Ukrainian language but Braun has taken his stance much further. During the campaign, Braun stormed a hospital with supporters and tried to carry out a citizen's arrest of a doctor who had carried out a legal late-term abortion on a woman whose fetus was diagnosed with a severe condition, putting her health at risk. Supporters at one of his rallies pulled down a Ukrainian flag from city hall in Biala Podlaska. Braun was already known as a provocateur known for spreading Russian propaganda. In 2023, he used a fire extinguisher to put out candles on a Jewish Hannukkah menorah in the Polish parliament. Candidates from parties in Tusk's coalition government, which includes left-wing, centrist and center-right parties, together won about 40%. 'Right-wing and far-right candidates gathered as many as 54% of votes — this is the most surprising result of the first round of the presidential election,' Buras said. 'This brings Nawrocki into a favorable position ahead of the runoff on June 1. He will have a larger pool of votes to draw upon.' Gera writes for the Associated Press.
