Ishiba's support falls, but likely no ouster before July election

Japan Times

19-05-2025

Support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government has weakened, according to public opinion surveys published by major Japanese news organizations over the weekend, although it remains unlikely he'll be ousted before a national election in July.
Polls published by the Yomiuri and Mainichi newspapers, as well as a survey from Kyodo News, showed support for Ishiba's Cabinet ranging from 22% to 31%, the lowest levels in each survey since Ishiba became national leader in October last year.
High food prices, including the cost of rice, was a major factor in a 5.2 percentage point fall in the approval rating to 27.4% in the Kyodo survey. The same opinion poll also found that 74.3% of respondents said they were not expecting a positive outcome from Japan's talks with the United States over tariffs. The Yomiuri poll cited general disappointment in the prime minister's policies.
Despite Ishiba's languishing ratings, there has been little talk within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party for his removal before an election for the Upper House of parliament in July.
An Asahi newspaper poll offered a slight counterpoint to the other surveys, showing Ishiba's approval rate ticking up to 33% from 30%. However, the poll also showed continued voter dissatisfaction with Japan's 10% sales tax. Some 68% said that they'd like to vote for candidates and parties that seek cuts, with a third prioritizing reduced taxes on food.
Ishiba has held on despite the LDP's crushing defeat in last year's Lower House election, primarily by appealing for support from minor opposition parties. Potential rivals within the LDP — particularly from its right wing — remain broadly sidelined in the wake of that electoral setback.
Analysts view a challenge to Ishiba from within the LDP as more likely after the July election.
"Ishiba's opponents on the right wing have utterly failed to organize an effort to push him out before the Upper House elections, and with each passing week it becomes increasingly unthinkable that the party can push Ishiba out without critically undermining its campaign,' Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, an advisory firm, wrote in a recent research note.