China-US-Pakistan: Why questions need to be asked about India's diplomacy
It becomes even more important in the context of recent developments in India's foreign policy and diplomatic affairs. US President Donald Trump's imposition of exorbitant tariffs on India mainly for buying crude oil from Russia, the external affairs minister S Jaishankar's proposed visit to Moscow, possibly paving the way for Vladimir Putin's early visit to New Delhi,Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi' is visiting New Delhi and Indian PM Modi's plans to meet the Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the SCO meetings, indicates how fast changes can happen in international affairs and bilateral ties.
Further, threatening statements made by Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and his seemingly growing relations with Washington give us an increasing reason to critically assess the future of India-Pakistan ties. Post-Operation Sindoor debates largely remain one-sided. Most conclude with supporting the government's position or raising comfortable questions. The government and its supporters defend the ceasefire, while the Opposition questions it.
In this political slugfest, some of the relevant questions remain untouched: How to deal with Pakistan? All previous Indian Prime Ministers have dealt with Pakistan in their own way. Soon after his election, PM Modi briefly engaged in talks with Pakistan, but they could not be taken forward, largely due to historical and structural reasons. Then, what options does India have? Are we going to fight with Pakistan for years? Should India engage in talks with Pakistan? How do continuous tensions with Pakistan impact communal ties in India? These and related questions need critical public debate.
After India and the US began developing close ties in the early post-Cold War years, many Indian analysts started believing that Washington would support New Delhi in dealing with Beijing. Conversely, over the years, the US leadership has supported India's stance against China mainly to secure its interests and not those of New Delhi. The Donald Trump administration has always been seen as the friendliest American government by a big section of the Indian population, obviously, before the latest tariff war. Many Indian Americans supported Trump, and some Indians publicly celebrated Trump's last presidential win. But India failed to learn from history. Historically, the US has never been a reliable friend to many countries. The past of US-Pakistan ties is an example. Until a few weeks before, a big section of Indian media had discussed India-US ties without critically evaluating the history and politics of its foreign relations. Now, the same anchors are against the Trump administration.
Even though China has remained India's important trading partner, most public debates in the country mainly consider Beijing as a 'threat' to New Delhi's security and larger strategic interests. At present, the two countries are in the process of resetting their bilateral ties, which were affected after the confrontation in Galwan Valley. However, political differences and disputes remain intact. During India-Pakistan tensions in April-May this year, several Indians accused China of backing Pakistan against India. Wang Yi's visit to New Delhi and Modi's visit to China may help the two countries to clear some of the obstacles on the road. However, as the talks will be held in the backdrop of India-US tensions over tariffs, New Delhi may not be in a strong position vis-à-vis Beijing. In such a situation, the following questions need to be critically examined: How should India deal with the US and China? Does India need friendly ties with China to deal with Trump's administration? Will a 'Dragon-Elephant Tango' benefit India and China? How can India secure its interests in Asia without the US?
Modi's 151 foreign visits to 72 countries, including 10 to the US, in the last 11 years, have certainly improved bilateral ties with some of those countries. These visits have also helped in deepening India's ties with them. However, many foreign policy-related challenges remain unsettled. Foreign policy has its politics and economics affecting a big population in a country like India, and thus, critical debate is essential. In a democracy, serious debates, differences in opinion, and dissenting views on any matters, including foreign policy-related issues, should be accepted even if one strongly disagrees with the state and the elites.
The writer is a fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, NUS, Singapore
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