The great American race to the bottom

The Hill

a day ago

In 2016 Donald Trump made history, by becoming the first person to be elected president with a net unfavorable rating. In 2024, he repeated that feat. But his opponents have not fared much better. American politics has turned distinctly negative in the last 10 years, and neither party has shown much interest in reversing that trend.
Trump's favorability issues are well-known. He has rarely enjoyed a net favorable rating. With the exception of the brief inauguration honeymoon, Trump has been net negative his entire time as a candidate and as president. Yet he has taken two out of three elections, to the mass confusion of Democrats.
There should be no confusion. If the Democratic Party and its media allies would take a break from their all-consuming anti-Trump rage, they would see that their own team is not popular at all. Hillary Clinton was net negative for much of her campaign in 2016, and Kamala Harris hovered around break-even last year but was dragged down by the enormous unpopularity of Joe Biden.
This theme of unpopularity is not limited to presidential candidates; it is prevalent throughout American politics. The politicians who are not underwater with the public tend to have low name recognition. As name ID rises, as do negative perceptions.
In American politics, the more you know, the less you like.
Trump is doing surprisingly well, given his past polling. His favorability is in the same neighborhood as former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama at the same point in their second terms. It is true that Trump's average is boosted by several Republican-friendly polls, with Trafalgar having Trump at plus-8, Insider Advantage at plus-11 and Rasmussen at plus-5. But even the less Trump-friendly media polls have the president's favorability in the mid-40s, which is pretty good for Trump.
In the most recent YouGov poll — a poll that tends to tilt against Trump — the president scores 43 percent favorable against 52 percent unfavorable. Eighty percent of Republicans approve of Trump, against 11 percent disapprove, whereas Democrats disapprove at 93 percent against 5 percent approve. Independents are net-negative on Trump, 56 percent to 36 percent.
It is this partisan split that has come to define American public opinion.
The RealClearPolitics favorability average shows JD Vance, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), Republican Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) all in negative territory. Schumer has taken Mitch McConnell's crown for the most despised leader at a net-negative 18 points. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has managed to score roughly even on favorability, but he is also the least known of all the leaders. I am sure he will join his colleagues in public opinion purgatory if people get to know him better.
In the June 2 YouGov poll, a laundry list of prominent Republican and Democratic politicians were polled and almost all of them were under water with independents. Those with low net negatives often had a majority of independents with no opinion.
Schumer led the hit parade of disapproval at net negative 24 points with independents, followed by Trump (minus-20 points), Biden (minus-17 points), Gavin Newsom (minus-15 points) and Harris (minus-12 points). Vance, last polled in May, was at minus-21 points with independents.
Outside of Harris and Newsom, most of the potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates were narrowly net negative, but also had low name recognition. Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Pete Buttigieg were each at minus-3 points and Gretchen Whitmer was at just minus-2 points, but all of them had under 60 percent on name identification.
The most curious feature of the polling is that Bernie Sanders is the only truly popular politician among the whole bunch. Sanders, the only Democratic-leaning contender currently out on tour (great merch still available!) enjoys 48 percent approval against 38 percent disapproval, including a gravity-defying 51 percent approval with independents.
But Sanders's numbers are more a reflection of his political impotence and irrelevance than anything. He is doing great because there is little pushback, and he is generating little criticism because he has no power to do anything so he doesn't matter. Trump matters, Vance matters. Johnson matters, and Schumer and Newsom have actual power. Harris remains merely a possible 2028 Democratic nominee.
The American media-political power structure for both the left and the right are not going to waste their time on someone who has no real political power in Washington, is not a serious threat to be a future presidential nominee and who is repeating the same old lines over and over. Sanders's free pass keeps him popular, while his opening act, Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who could be a force in the future, gets the scrutiny — and the weaker polling (minus-6 points overall and minus-7 points with independents).
The sour mood by independents is both an Achilles' heel and an opportunity for Republicans and Democrats. The 'curse on both houses' attitude means that independents are up for grabs and can make either party the majority.
Neither party seems interested in a selective moderation that could attract independents. Conflict and constantly shifting policy (particularly on economic matters) may excite Trump's partisans, but they are a turn-off for independents. Meanwhile, Democrats seem determined to cling to unpopular policies, like shielding violent illegal immigrants from deportation and the most extreme transgender ideologies.
A permanent majority is available in America for both parties. Too bad nobody is paying attention.
Keith Naughton, a longtime Republican political consultant, is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.