Study finds people back climate policies when weather hits home
Published in Nature Climate Change on July 1, the study led by a team of international researchers, including one from Stellenbosch University, revealed that public support for climate action is simply not about experiencing floods, droughts, or heatwaves. Rather, what matters most is whether individuals believe these events are linked to climate change.
'Our data suggest that if individuals attribute extreme weather events to climate change, support for climate policies is higher regardless of whether the events are more frequent. The reverse causal relationship is also possible: people who are supportive of climate policies are more likely to attribute extreme weather to climate change.'
The team collected data from 68 countries, using a mix of natural and social science data. Participants' experiences with extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves and tropical storms, were compared with their support for climate policies like carbon taxes, sustainable energy and forest protection.
Support was highest for protecting forested and land areas (82%) and increasing the use of sustainable energy (75%). However, proposals to raise taxes on carbon-intensive foods and fossil fuels drew the least support, with only 22% and 29% respectively backing them 'very much'.
The study also found regional differences. 'Support for climate policies was particularly high in African and Asian countries, average in Australia, Costa Rica, and the UK, and below the global average in several European countries such as Czechia (Czech Republic), Finland and Norway.'
Demographic differences also emerged. Men, younger people, the highly educated, those with higher incomes, religious individuals, and those with left-leaning political views were more likely to support climate policies.
However, the link between extreme weather and policy support was not consistent across all events. While attribution to climate change played a key role in policy support for heatwaves and cyclones, the same could not be said for heavy rainfall.
The study found a negative relationship between the number of people exposed to heavy precipitation and support for climate policies. 'Subjective attribution was relatively low for heavy precipitation. This corroborates previous findings that people often fail to link extreme rainfall with climate change.'
This may help explain inconsistent findings in previous research. 'Few of these studies assessed whether participants linked these events to climate change, therefore missing a key controlling variable. Consequently, we strongly recommend that future studies assess subjective attribution.'
The researchers referenced media coverage as a potential reason for this. A review of media reports from 10 countries between 2006 and 2018 found that extreme weather reporting mostly focused on hurricanes, storms, fires and other visible anomalies, and less on rain-related events.
'Countries more exposed to heavy precipitation might therefore be less willing to support climate policies because they are less likely to link those events to climate change,' said the researchers. Their analysis also showed that the negative effects of rainfall exposure on policy support were strongest among people who did not believe climate change caused those events.
'This further highlights the need for more research on climate change communication on types of extreme weather events that are not typically associated with climate change, such as heavy precipitation, as these events might serve as 'teachable moments'.'
However, they cautioned that the relationship between rainfall exposure and climate policy support was not always significant, especially in exploratory models that considered additional variables like land area and climate change belief.
'This finding should therefore be interpreted with caution,' said the researchers.
'The researchers call for more studies about effective climate change communication on types of extreme weather events that are not typically associated with climate.'
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