Can YES Bank reclaim Rs 27? Or is a drop below Rs 17 more likely?

Time of India

18-07-2025

YES Bank shares
have seen a volatile ride over the past year, falling 22% in the last 12 months and losing 26% from their peak of Rs 27.2. However, since hitting a low of Rs 16 in March, the stock has recovered nearly 25%, sparking renewed interest among traders and investors.
Kunal V Parar, VP – Technical Research & Algo at Choice Broking, believes the stock is showing early signs of a turnaround.
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'On the daily chart, the stock is trading above its 100-day Moving Average, indicating a sustained positive trend. This suggests potential for further upside momentum in the near term,' he said.
He added that a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern has formed after the recent correction, signalling a possible reversal backed by growing buying interest. 'On the weekly chart, the stock continues to hold above its rising trendline support, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend and reflecting strong underlying momentum,' he said.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering around 50, showing a positive crossover after taking support near its previous bottom. 'Given the current technical setup, we expect the stock to move upwards towards the Rs 21.50 – Rs 23.00 zone, with a strict stop-loss at Rs 19,' Parar noted.
However, Drumil Vithlani, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza, pointed out that YES Bank is still forming a Lower Low, Lower High structure — a sign of weakness. 'Although the stock recently broke above a falling trendline, it failed to hold the breakout as selling pressure pushed the price back toward the trendline support,' he said.
According to Vithlani, bullish momentum will only resume if the stock decisively closes above Rs 23.40. 'Until then, fresh entries should be avoided as the trend remains weak. On the downside, a break below Rs 17.40 could open the gates for further decline towards Rs 15.98,' he added.
At the same time, YES Bank is also in the spotlight due to potential foreign investment. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp (SMBC) has sought approval from the Reserve Bank of India to acquire up to a 25% stake in YES Bank. The Japanese lender had earlier entered into a binding agreement in May to purchase 20% from
State Bank of India
and a group of other Indian banks.
Sources told ET that if RBI clears the application, SMBC would have room to acquire an additional 5%, taking its total holding to 25%. Media reports also suggest that SMBC is exploring a total investment of $1.1 billion in the private lender.
What Lies Ahead?
For now, YES Bank's stock remains range-bound, with technical and fundamental signals pulling in opposite directions. Whether the stock reclaims Rs 27 or slides below Rs 17 will likely depend on a combination of market sentiment, institutional flows, and broader cues from RBI's decision on SMBC's application.
(
Disclaimer
: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)