Maya reaffirms go-solo strategy for 2027 UP assembly polls
In a post on social media platform X, Mayawati said: 'BSP is a party that works independently of casteist alliances. The party follows Ambedkarite principles and policies of 'Sarvajan Hitay, Sarvajan Sukhay' (the welfare and happiness of all)'.
The BSP president's statement has drawn mixed reactions from party leaders and supporters. While some welcomed her decision, others expressed apprehension that the decision to go solo might pave the way for further decline of the party's support base and defeat in the 2027 assembly elections in UP.
'At a time when political parties across the country are joining NDA or INDIA to retain relevance in the state and national politics, Behenji's decision may prove detrimental for the party which aims for revival in the 2027 elections. To remain relevant, the party will have to choose for an alliance either with the NDA or with INDIA alliance,' said a BSP leader who wished not to be named.
However, another BSP leader said that with around two years to go for the assembly elections in UP, the party chief wishes to keep her options open. 'She will take the final call on alliance after the panchayat polls scheduled next year. She is working on strengthening the party organisation from booth level to state level. The party is working on the Dalit-OBC consolidation strategy to strengthen its base,' he said.
Professor Vivek Kumar, a political observer, said: 'Mayawati is working on a tested formula to regain the lost ground in UP. Past alliance experiments have largely backfired. The BSP ended up transferring its votes to the alliance partners, but got little in return.'
'When a party goes for an alliance, it has to agree on a seat-sharing deal. In this situation, when the candidates campaigning for the party in the hope of getting a ticket are left in the lurch, they feel cheated. It also leads to rebellion as some contest as independent candidates. The organisation work is also adversely affected,' he added.
'Mayawati knows that the post-poll alliance brings more bargaining power in comparison to the pre-poll alliance. If the BSP manages two win around 30-40 seats in the assembly elections, it will be in a better position to bargain with the party that is vying to form the government,' he insisted.
According to Anant Rao Akela, a Dalit ideologue, the support base as well as vote share of the BSP have shrunk in successive elections after the BSP lost power in 2012.
'Mayawati's strategy to regain power has failed. The BJP, SP and Congress have made inroads into its Dalit vote base. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP and Congress received a large share of Dalit votes,' he pointed out.
'The rise of Azad Samaj Party (ASP) leader Chandrashekhar is yet another challenge for the BSP to regain its hold over the Dalits. Mayawati's decision to remove her nephew Akash Anand from the post of national coordinator and re-appoint him has damaged his prospects in politics. If Mayawati goes solo in the 2027 assembly elections, Jatav votes will be divided between the BSP and ASP,' Akela said.
According to BSP state unit president Vishwanath Pal, the party is organising cadre camps in all the assembly segments to regain its support base.
'The focus is on the youth. Senior party leaders have been directed to attend the camps to make the youth aware of the struggle of party's founder Kanshi Ram and president Mayawati,' he said.
The BSP support base and vote share has been declining in the successive elections.
In the 2007 assembly elections, the BSP polled 30.43% votes to form the government on its own. In 2012, the BSP polled 25.95% votes to bag 80 seats. In 2017, the BSP secured 22.23% votes to win 19 seats while in 2022, its vote percentage dipped to 12.88% and the BSP won a solitary seat.
The story has been no different in the Lok Sabha elections.
In 2004, the BSP polled 24.67% votes to bag 19 seats while in 2009, its vote percentage was 27.42% and the seat tally was 20. In 2014, the BSP's vote percentage declined to 19.77% and it failed to open its account.
In 2019, the BSP contested in alliance with the SP and bagged 10 seats with a vote share of 19.42%. In 2024, the party failed to open its account with a vote share of 9.35%.
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