‘Lowest in 9 years': Pakistan agriculture sector projected to grow only 0.56% in FY25

Business Recorder

5 hours ago

Pakistan's agriculture sector will grow marginally by 0.56% in the financial year 2024-25, as per the provisional data unveiled in the Economic Survey for FY25, against 6.40% growth recorded in the sector in 2023-24.
The growth in the FY25 would be the 'lowest in 9 years', Topline Research said in a statement.
'Agri sector is expected to post lowest growth of 0.56% in 9 years (FY16: +0.41%) vs. 5 years avg. growth of 3.38%,' it said.
The lower growth was attributed to decline in important crops production and cotton ginning by 13.5% and 19.0%, respectively.
While other crops posted growth of 4.78%, livestock, forestry and fishing are expected to post growths of 4.72%, 3.03% and 1.2% respectively. On the other hand, important crops and cotton are expected to post declines of 13.49% and 19.03%, respectively.
'The crop sub-sector witnessed negative growth as a result of weather-related adverse challenges,' read the Economic Survey.
'Overall, the agriculture sector in FY25 showed a combination of resilience and challenges across its sub-sectors. The growth trend emphasizes the sector's enduring importance, while also highlighting the urgent need for modernisation, climate adaptation, knowledge enhancement, and productivity improvements to sustain its contribution to economic growth and social well-being.'
In the Kharif 2024 season, water availability was 60.5 million acrefeet (MAF), lower than average system usage and Kharif 2023. For Rabi 2024-25 water availability remained at 29.4 MAF. The Rabi season observed reduced rainfall, while the Kharif season saw above-average rainfall, according to the survey.
Agriculture in South Asia is shaped by a shared agro-climatic context, but countries vary in crop priorities due to policy choices, market demands and natural resource endowments.
The Economic Survey said the country's cotton ginning sector showed volatility and cyclical patterns in the last six years. In FY 2025, the sector witnessed a contraction of 19.03% over exceptional growth of 47.23% the previous year.
'This decline reflects underlying structural challenges, adverse weather conditions and pest outbreaks.'
To address challenges in the sector, the survey mentioned that the government is pursuing a 'multi-pronged approach focused on improving irrigation efficiency, advancing seed sector reforms, scaling up digital agriculture initiatives, and strengthening R&D and extension services'.
'These measures are essential not only for short-term stability but also for fostering a resilient, self-sustaining agriculture sector capable of driving inclusive economic growth and rural transformation,' the Economic Survey said.
'Agriculture in South Asia is shaped by a shared agro-climatic context, but countries vary in crop priorities due to policy choices, market demands and natural resource endowments.'
Last week, Pakistan Kissan Ittehad Council (PKIC) President Khalid Mehmood said the agriculture sector witnessed a dramatic slowdown in the FY25, as he claimed that the farmers collectively suffered losses of around Rs2.2 trillion in wheat alone
Khokhar stated that since May 2024, farmers have collectively suffered losses of around Rs2,200 billion in wheat alone — equivalent to 23.15% of the crop sector's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2023–24.
The resulting financial strain had weakened farmers' purchasing power and affected the productivity of other crops as well, he said.
PKIC has also warned the government against imposing general sales tax (GST) on agricultural inputs in the upcoming budget, stating that such a move would deal a final blow to the already struggling agricultural sector and further damage the national economy.