As India-Pak trade fire, the world is sitting this out. Fareed Zakaria decodes
The spectre of two nuclear-armed nations trading aerial fire has alarmed the international community. But, it seems the world is sitting this out - a shift from the fervent diplomacy seen during the Israel-Gaza war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.With the United States, under an inward-looking Donald Trump, taking a hands-off approach, and China not adopting a proactive stance, geopolitical expert Fareed Zakaria highlighted the absence of a credible intermediary in the region to help dial down tensions. advertisement'LOST US AS USEFUL INTERMEDIARY'Historically, the diplomatic push from the United States, being a superpower, has been instrumental in bringing countries back from the brink of conflict. According to Zakaria, this laissez-faire policy of the US can be partly blamed for the conflict to spiral. This is simply because the US is one of the few nations that could talk to both sides and try to de-escalate the situation.
"We have lost the United States as a kind of useful intermediary. You saw Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, lean into that kind of role initially. But then, a few hours later, JD Vance, the Vice President, essentially washes his hands off the whole situation and says the US doesn't want to get involved," Zakaria told India Today in an exclusive interview.On Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to both sides for the second time in three days, stressed the need to exercise maximum restraint and restore direct lines of communication.advertisementHowever, other leaders have sent an altogether different message. US Vice President JD Vance said America wouldn't get involved in a war that's "fundamentally none of our business". President Donald Trump, who had earlier called India's Operation Sindoor, where it struck nine terror camps in Pakistan, a "shame", has so far not directly engaged with the two leaders.
A man searches for his belongings in Kashmir amid debris after his house was damaged amid the ongoing military conflict between India and Pakistan (PTI)
"There you see the tension in America between the old traditional engaged superpower and the now more isolationist wing of the Republican Party. So because of that, you don't have a party that's trusted. And frankly, the US is now less trusted by Pakistan than it was 10 or 15 years ago. The Pakistanis believe the US has become entirely pro-Indian," Zakaria said.In 2016 and 2019, when India and Pakistan last clashed following the Uri and Pulwama attacks, the US played a key role in de-escalating tensions. The US was also instrumental in getting Pakistan to release IAF pilot Abhinandan Varthaman after the Balakot airstrike.Zakaria said this "fortress America" mentality, where the Trump administration's priorities are more about tariffs and trade, will only allow such local conflicts to fester. The Indian-American journalist and author said the US, in the past, has very effectively used its diplomatic and moral authority to calm tensions down.advertisement"It is a kind of 'fortress America" mentality, which says whatever's going on outside, let it happen - we don't really care very much. This may be the new world we are in, a world without a superpower, a world without a country that tries to manage these tensions. And, these local conflicts can therefore spiral. And that, is the danger here, very clearly," Zakaria said.'CHINA CAN'T BE TRUSTED'Apart from the US, Zakaria said China could not be trusted as an intermediary, while the European Union doesn't have a powerful geopolitical or geomilitary presence."India has a long history of not wanting the United Nations (UN) involved in this. Certainly, the Chinese have influence with Pakistan, but India would not trust China as an intermediary at all. The European Union, they are not really a single entity, they don't have a powerful geopolitical, geomilitary presence," he said.China, which has called Pakistan its all-weather friend, has been guarded it its response and has mostly remained aloof from the conflict. Even though it helped Pakistan water down a United Nations Security Council condemnation of the Pahalgam attack, China has so far desisted from making a ringing endorsement of support for Pakistan.advertisementWhile calling both India and Pakistan its "neighbours", China said it was willing to play a constructive role in de-escalating the conflict.With India left with limited external support, Zakaria said it has to rely on its own approach to managing the crisis. On the other hand, he said it was important for Pakistan to realise that it cannot win against bigger and more powerful country like India."This is the post-American world that I am worried about. You see it in South Asia. What it means is the dangers of conflict spiralling out of control. India is trying to signal a more measured approach, and you have to hope that at some point Pakistan realises that this is not a conflict they can win," Zakaria said.Tune InMust Watch
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Indian Express
29 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Trump says China trade deal ‘done': 55% tariff, supply of rare earth minerals
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the United States has reached a trade agreement with China, including an easing of curbs imposed by Beijing on export of rare earth minerals and magnets that are key inputs for industries ranging from automobiles to electronics. 'Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval with President Xi and me,' Trump said in a post on Truth Social. He said China would supply 'any necessary rare earths' and magnets, while the US would make concessions on allowing Chinese students to attend American universities. The Trump administration had recently begun to clamp down on the presence of Chinese nationals on US college campuses. 'We are getting a total of 55% tariffs, China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent!' Trump wrote, without elaborating. Bloomberg quoted a White House official as saying that the agreement allows the US to charge a 55 per cent tariff on imported Chinese goods, which, crucially, includes a 10 per cent baseline 'reciprocal' tariff, a 20 per cent tariff for fentanyl trafficking, and a 25 per cent tariff reflecting pre-existing tariffs (imposed by Trump in his first term, that the Biden administration persisted with). China would charge a 10 per cent tariff on American imports, the official said. Though the details of the deal were still unclear, analysts predicted that China seems to have gained the upper-hand after its rare earth restrictions prompted US carmakers, including Ford Motor and Chrysler, to cut production. Significantly, Trump said a final deal is subject to approval from him and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Chinese state media said earlier Wednesday that Beijing had reached a 'framework' for an agreement with the US during talks in London, but there was no official response from China on Trump's subsequent claims on Truth Social. Earlier, both the negotiating sides said they had agreed in principle to a framework for dialling down trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies. After the meeting in London — the second time the two sides have met in the last couple of months, since Trump's sweeping tariff onslaught — there were indications of a reconciliation. What is beginning to get clearer after the second meeting is that this is perhaps not how the US imagined the trade war to unfold. China is beginning to dictate the direction of the bilateral talks, with the US almost seen as requesting for much-needed concessions on the resumption of supplies of critical inputs. In the first round of talks in Geneva, the US delegation led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had asked the Chinese to cut its tariffs in tandem with theirs, primarily because the Americans were facing the heat back home from the early fallout of the high tariffs, including empty shelves at grocery stories and surging prices of daily use commodities. In London, the US side is learnt to have specifically asked the Chinese to 'suspend or remove' restrictions on rare earths magnets, which had forced a supply-chain crunch. The London meeting follows a call between Trump and Xi on June 5, which was initiated by the White House — the first call since Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. After the London talks, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the deal should result in restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets 'being resolved'. 'We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus… Once the Presidents approve it, we will then seek to implement it,' he said. 'The two sides have, in principle, reached a framework for implementing the consensus reached by the two heads of state during the phone call on June 5 and the consensus reached at the Geneva meeting,' the BBC quoted China's Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang as saying. Chinese export controls over rare earth minerals were high on the agenda of the meetings. While Beijing has not imposed an outright ban on the export of rare earth magnets, the process has been made very difficult; it could take a long time to source, posing shortage risks. Rare earth magnets, especially neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets, are crucial for EV manufacturing. They provide the strong magnetic fields needed for efficient and powerful electric motors, including traction motors that drive EVs. These magnets also play a major role in other EV components like power steering systems, wiper motors and braking systems. China has a virtual stranglehold over these rare earth magnets. In May, talks held in Geneva led to a temporary truce after the tit-for-tat tariff increases by both sides, which led to duties that peaked at 145 per cent. Trump called the outcome of the talks in Switzerland a 'total reset', which brought US tariffs on Chinese products down to 30 per cent, while Beijing cut duties on US imports to 10 per cent. Both sides also agreed to a 90-day deadline to try to reach a trade deal. However, the US and China have since accused each other of breaching the deal. The US has said that Beijing has been dragging its feet on opening up exports of rare earth metals and magnets while the Chinese claim that Washington has restricted its access to American goods such as semiconductors and other related technologies linked to artificial intelligence. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had said China had failed to roll back restrictions on exports of rare earth magnets. In the run-up to this week's talks, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday that it had approved some applications for rare earth export licences. The problem for the US is that the Chinese side has wrested some advantage, especially by leveraging its strategy of weaponing its dominance in key sectors. Rare earth minerals and magnets is one such area, where the US is now desperate for concessions. Both sides have since claimed breaches on non-tariff pledges, but the Americans clearly seem more eager for a reconciliation, given the impact of the Chinese blockade on its key manufacturing sectors. These Chinese trade blockades are already impacting companies in other geographies. Hamamatsu-based small car maker Suzuki Motors, for instance, said last week it plans to suspend the production of its flagship Swift compact hatchback due to China's rare earth restrictions, becoming the first Japanese automaker to be impacted. There are similar worries among other manufacturing entities across the world, including in the US. Anil Sasi is National Business Editor with the Indian Express and writes on business and finance issues. He has worked with The Hindu Business Line and Business Standard and is an alumnus of Delhi University. ... Read More
India Today
37 minutes ago
- India Today
Crippled by Op Sindoor strikes, Pak eyeing Germany for air defence upgrades
Rattled by the devastating impact of BrahMos missile strikes during India's Operation Sindoor, Pakistan is now exploring the procurement of a new air defence system to counter future to sources, Islamabad is actively considering the purchase of the IRIS-T SLM air defence system from Germany in a bid to strengthen its aerial shield against India's supersonic cruise missiles, particularly the move comes after Pakistan's existing Chinese-origin air defence systems, including the HQ-9 and HQ-16, failed to detect or intercept Indian missile attacks during the operation. In contrast, the IRIS-T SLM system has demonstrated significant effectiveness in recent combat situations. In Ukraine, where several units were redirected from Egypt due to the ongoing war, the German-made system has reportedly shot down over 60 aerial targets since its deployment last it was said to have successfully intercepted Russian Oniks missiles, which are similar in profile to India's by Diehl Defence, the IRIS-T SLM is known for its modular and compact architecture. Each unit, estimated to cost around USD 200 million, includes radar, an operations centre, and launchers, all mounted on a 20-foot interest in the system highlights its urgent push to rebuild and upgrade its air defence network, particularly after key air bases were damaged by Indian missiles during Operation grappling with a severe economic crisis, Pakistan has raised its defence budget by 18 per cent this year while simultaneously scrapping domestic development projects valued at 1,000 billion Pakistani the past month, the country has secured financial assistance totalling USD 1.8 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to address its fiscal Germany's Diehl Defence, the maker of the IRIS-T SLM, is also involved in a major Indian defence initiative. The company is collaborating with Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems on Project 75I, a Rs 70,000 crore programme to build six submarines for the Indian Indian-German collaboration also includes the development of the Interactive Defence and Attack System (IDAS), which will be integrated into the India's Reliance Defence has announced a partnership to manufacture Vulcano 155mm precision-guided artillery shells domestically. The initiative is expected to generate revenues of approximately Rs 10,000 crore, with over 50 per cent of the components to be produced indigenously.
India.com
41 minutes ago
- India.com
India Won Operation Sindoor – But What Does The Army Want Next, And Who Poses The Greatest Threat?
New Delhi: India crushed Pakistan's assault during Operation Sindoor. But after the dust settled, something more alarming came into view. China was not sitting on the sidelines. It was pulling strings from behind the curtain. Indian radars picked up Chinese-made jets in Pakistani skies. Chinese missiles were used to target Indian bases. Beijing was deeply involved. That means India was not fighting just Pakistan. India was up against two enemies at once. Military officers have sounded the alarm. They want India's defence budget raised to 2.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Right now, the defence allocation stands at just 1.9%. A huge portion of that money goes into salaries and pensions. Only a quarter of it helps modernise the military. This cannot continue. Not when two hostile neighbours are preparing for something bigger. China has been pumping weapons into Pakistan. In the May 7-10 clashes, Pakistan deployed Chinese J-10 jets and HQ-9 missile systems. Beijing has promised to send more – stealth fighters, long-range air defence weapons and new-generation drones. China is flooding Pakistan with cutting-edge military tools. Pakistan's economy is in crisis. But even then, Islamabad raised its defence budget by 20%. It cut development. It ignored debt. It focused on weapons. India must respond, believe experts, arguing that it is time for total self-reliance in defence production. India must build fighter jets, drones, loitering munitions and missiles on its own. The private sector must step in. Half-measures will not do. Half-prepared armies lose wars. India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project has started moving. But it must move faster. Tejas took decades. The same mistake cannot happen again. The Indian Air Force is short on fighter squadrons. It has just 30. The target is 42.5. Drones are the new face of war. Swarm drones. FPV kamikaze drones. Loitering drones. India needs all of these, and it needs them in bulk. No country will come to India's rescue in a full-scale war. India must stand on its own. During Operation Sindoor, India used Russian S-400s, Israeli Barak-8s and its own Akash missiles. These systems intercepted and neautralised many Pakistani drone and missile attacks. But more layers are needed. DRDO must now accelerate two things – short-range air defence systems and long-range strike missiles like Project Kusha. Military reform is also crucial. India has a huge army. It must cut unnecessary spending. It must remove red tape from weapons procurement. And it must create joint theatre commands that allow the Army, Navy and Air Force to fight as one. A senior military commander put it bluntly. India is now staring at a superpower that is feeding a hostile neighbour. Pakistan may fire the bullets. But China is loading the gun. India cannot look away anymore. The next battle may not wait for long.
