Experts predict up to 19 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season

Euronews

23-05-2025

With warmer than normal ocean waters, forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy hurricane season for the Atlantic. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday unveiled its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins 1 June and stretches through the end of November, with a 60 per cent chance it will above normal, 30 per cent chance near normal and just 10 per cent chance it will be quieter than average.
The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 177 kph.
A normal season has 14 named storms, seven of which strengthen to hurricanes and three power up further to major hurricanes.
Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year's off-the-charts heat. But it's sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said.
'Everything is in place for an above average season," he said.
'With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet,' said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany tropical meteorology professor who was not part of the NOAA research.
Human-caused climate change has generally made storms more intense, wetter and slower-moving so they drop more rain, Corbosiero and other experts said.
'The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters," Corbosiero said. 'Warmer ocean water, warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, more fuel for storms.'
Corbosiero said there are three main factors: Water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle of natural ocean warming and cooling, and 'seeds' of storms coming off Africa as thunderstorms. The warmer-than-normal water pushes toward a busy season, the El Nino cycle is neutral and it's too early to know what's coming off Africa, she and other hurricane experts said.
With climate change, hurricanes are powering up from almost nothing to intense storms more quickly, giving people less notice for whopper storms, meteorologists said.
Every Category 5 hurricane that hit the United States was a tropical storm or weaker just three days earlier, Graham said.
Despite massive job cuts at NOAA from the Department of Government Efficiency, 'our ability to serve this country has never been better and it will be this year as well,' Graham said at a news conference Thursday in Gretna, Louisiana, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
'The hurricane centre is fully staffed up and we're ready to go,' acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. 'We are making this a top priority for this administration.'
Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered 'hyperactive,' according to NOAA.
It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal and 2022 was near normal.
Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks.
With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years.
Several other groups besides NOAA - private, public and academic - have already made forecasts for the upcoming season and they average out to a busy, but not hyperactive year with 16 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Phil Klotzbach, who coordinates Colorado State's pioneering forecast program, is calling for a bit more than other forecasters - 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four majors - heavily based on the warm waters and past trends. Still, it should not quite be like last year, he said.
'At least we're not looking at a crazy hot Atlantic like we did last year at this time,' Klotzbach said. 'We're still pretty toasty out there. So I don't have the warm fuzzies about 2025.'
Even if it's a quiet year, Corbosiero said just one storm can change everything, recalling an ultra quiet 1992, when that one storm was the devastating Hurricane Andrew.
'We don't need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the US or the Caribbean or anywhere,' Corbosiero said.
Six of Europe's key food imports are under increasing threat from biodiversity loss and climate change, a new report warns.
Commissioned by philanthropic initiative the European Climate Foundation, UK consultants Foresight Transitions examined the vulnerability of staple crops maize, rice and wheat, as well as cocoa, coffee and soy - key commodities for EU agrifood production and exports.
They found that more than half the imports of these six foodstuffs were from climate vulnerable countries with limited resources to adapt. For three - wheat, maize and cocoa - two-thirds of imports come from countries whose biodiversity is deemed not to be intact.
'These aren't just abstract threats,' says lead author of the report, Camilla Hyslop. 'They are already playing out in ways that negatively affect businesses and jobs, as well as the availability and price of food for consumers, and they are only getting worse.'
As the world's biggest producer and exporter of chocolate, it is the EU's chocolate industry - worth an estimated €44 billion - that faces the biggest threat from these twin environmental factors.
Around 97 per cent of chocolate's primary ingredient, cocoa, comes from countries with a low-medium or below climate score, as per the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index. This tool combines a country's vulnerability to climate damages with its access to financial and institutional support.
And 77 per cent of cocoa comes from countries with a medium or below biodiversity rating, according to a ranking of biodiversity intactness from the UK's Natural History Museum, which compares the current abundance of wild species to pre-modern levels.
The researchers mapped trade data from Eurostat onto these two rankings of environmental security for all six commodities.
In the case of cocoa, European imports come from a few main countries in West Africa - Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria - all of which are experiencing overlapping and intensifying climate and biodiversity impacts.
'The European Union has forked out an increasing price for cocoa imports as a result of these environmental pressures, with the total value of imports increasing by 41 per cent over the last year,' says Hyslop.
'The increasing value has also been driven by climate-related increases in the price of sugar, highlighting the environmental 'double whammy' facing not only chocolatiers but other kinds of producers using multiple environmentally-sensitive inputs.'
Chocolate prices have gone up 43 per cent in the last three years, according to a recent analysis by green think tank Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), with 'chocflation' evident on supermarket shelves.
While previous studies have assessed the climate vulnerability of food imports, the new research stands out for its focus on biodiversity loss and how these two environmental factors interact.
'Climate impacts are made worse by declining biodiversity, which leave farms and surrounding ecosystems far less resilient to climate and other shocks,' explains Hyslop.
'Not only are less biodiverse farms less resilient to crop disease - these diseases often emerge due to decreased biodiversity.'
On top of this, yields are diminished by the clearing of native vegetation, which can alter local microclimates. While practices such as monocropping - where a crop like wheat is exclusively grown - deplete the soil on which food production depends.
One response to this rising insecurity in Europe's supply chains is to produce more food on the continent.
But, argues Dr Mark Workman, director of Foresight Transitions and co-author of the report, this 'reshoring' would by itself be a wholly insufficient response.
'Not only would the EU struggle to grow some of these commodities in large quantities, it is facing its own climate and biodiversity threats - not to mention the unpalatable land-use implications of significant reshoring of food production.'
Hyslop underscores the global nature of the climate crisis, too. While higher rainfall in 2024 left cocoa rotting in West Africa, she writes, floods in the UK and France decreased wheat production, and high temperatures in Eastern Europe disrupted maize crops - making imports crucial for food security.
'It is therefore entirely in the self-interest of EU policymakers to get serious about investing in the climate resilience of partner producers as well as overseas trading infrastructure such as ports that support this trade and are also subject to environmental stresses,' adds Workman.
'This is an important message to convey at a time when overseas aid budgets are often being pitted against investments in defence and security - but the truth is they are two sides of the same coin.'
Policy recommendations the report sets out include measures to support smallholder farmers, who supply the majority of cocoa to the EU. And, 'the most obvious' one, strong climate mitigation policies, which will have positive benefits for all supplier countries.