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3 minutes ago
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Prediction: Nvidia's New China Deal Will Be a Game-Changer. Here's Why
Key Points While most of Nvidia's revenue hails from the U.S. and Europe, the Chinese market represents an estimated $50 billion opportunity. Recent changes to tariff policies and export controls have stifled Nvidia's potential in China throughout 2025. Nvidia and the U.S. government have formed a deal structure that helps pave the way for Nvidia to reclaim dominance in the key Asian market. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia › Although it's only August, 2025 has already played out like a modern-day Greek tragedy for semiconductor powerhouse Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Its year has been marked by a litany of setbacks, comebacks, and everything in between. Earlier this year, more than $1 trillion of Nvidia's market value was wiped out. Yet today, the company boasts a market cap of $4.4 trillion -- reclaiming the crown as the most valuable company in the world. At the center of Nvidia's headaches in 2025 is China -- and no, not because of DeepSeek. The real culprit has been a wave of sweeping tariff policies and export controls that have curtailed Nvidia's influence in the Chinese AI market. Now, after months of negotiations with regulators in Washington, it appears that the tide may be turning. Nvidia could be on the precipice of reestablishing its presence in one of its most crucial Asian markets. Let's unpack the details of Nvidia's new deal structure in China and examine why it should be celebrated as a massive win for investors. How big an opportunity is China for Nvidia? According to accounting and consulting firm Deloitte, the global total addressable market (TAM) for semiconductors, as measured by sales, reached $627 billion in 2024. Deloitte projects that the market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% over the coming decades -- ultimately reaching $2 trillion by 2040. Outside of the U.S., China remains one of the most important markets fueling demand for high-performance chipsets, particularly graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has estimated that the AI opportunity in China alone could be worth as much as $50 billion. In 2024, Nvidia generated $130 billion in revenue, with China capturing roughly 13% of this sum. During the first quarter of 2025, Nvidia's $5.5 billion of China sales accounted for roughly 12.5% of total revenue. This leveling trend underscores how the current administration's policies toward China have started to constrain Nvidia's growth potential in the region. Why is Nvidia's new China deal so important? According to multiple news outlets, Nvidia has reached an agreement with Washington regarding its operation in China. Under the terms, Nvidia will pay 15% of its China-based sales to the U.S. government. In effect, the arrangement provides Nvidia with a pathway to penetrate this critical market through its tailored H20 chips. While this might initially resemble a tax, investors should avoid viewing it through that lens. First, the agreement applies to sales of Nvidia's AI chips rather than to profits, unlike traditional forms of taxation. Moreover, the 15% rate does not appear to be variable in structure like a royalty, which is typically tied to intellectual property (IP) and subject to fluctuate. While this deal might appear unusual at first glance, these structures are not without precedent in global business practices. For example, energy companies that extract natural resources or commodities in foreign countries often operate under similar revenue-sharing agreements with host nations in exchange for distribution rights. In my view, dedicating a modest share of sales to secure access to China represents a strategic trade-off. In the long run, it allows Nvidia to preserve its dominant position in one of the world's most important AI markets and prevents domestic rivals such as Huawei from eroding its competitive moat. Is Nvidia stock a buy? While Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has been expanding recently, levels remain muted compared to peaks reached previously during the AI revolution. In my view, part of this multiple compression reflects concerns surrounding China -- perhaps overly so. Nvidia's new agreement in Washington offers the company renewed momentum, securing revenue in a critical market without forfeiting much in the way of profits -- even with the 15% remittance to the U.S. government. Over the long term, I see this arrangement as a strategic mechanism for Nvidia to strengthen its position overseas and deliver durable growth across the global AI infrastructure market. As these fundamentals take hold, I think the company's valuation multiples could expand further, potentially driving the stock to new highs sooner than many investors may be expecting. For that reason, I see Nvidia stock as a no-brainer opportunity to buy hand over fist right now and hold for years to come. Do the experts think Nvidia is a buy right now? The Motley Fool's expert analyst team, drawing on years of investing experience and deep analysis of thousands of stocks, leverages our proprietary Moneyball AI investing database to uncover top opportunities. They've just revealed their to buy now — did Nvidia make the list? When our Stock Advisor analyst team has a stock recommendation, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is up 1,070% vs. just 184% for the S&P — that is beating the market by 885.55%!* Imagine if you were a Stock Advisor member when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,155!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,106,071!* The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 13, 2025 Adam Spatacco has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Prediction: Nvidia's New China Deal Will Be a Game-Changer. Here's Why was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
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Glimpses Of China's New Air Combat Drones Emerge Ahead Of Massive Military Parade
More imagery of Chinese 'loyal wingman' type drones, or at least mockups thereof, that are set to make their official debut at a major upcoming military parade has emerged. The uncrewed aircraft are just one part of a massive reveal of new capabilities around this event, some possibly aspirational, but some very real. At least five different loyal wingmen drones, also now commonly referred to as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) by the USAF, had already been expected to be shown at the upcoming parade in Beijing, based on satellite imagery of the preparations that TWZ previously reported on. It is possible that some of the designs are higher-performance uncrewed combat air vehicles (UCAV) with enhanced degrees of autonomy, but that could still have collaborative capabilities. The GJ-11 Sharp Sword stealthy flying-wing drone, a centerpiece of Chinese UCAV developments to date, and lower-tier medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) types will also be part of the parade. We can now see that one of the designs that will be shown at the parade, seen below, has a clear resemblance to the FH-97, which is at least heavily inspired by the XQ-58A Valkyrie from U.S. drone maker Kratos. However, the others do not readily align with known Chinese types. Yesterday, a new image emerged offering a better look at one of the designs, which has a traditional wing and tail arrangement, as well as a top-mounted air intake. Another picture of this drone also began circulating online earlier today. As noted, it has distinct similarities to the FH-97, which was first shown publicly at China's Zhuhai Airshow in 2021. The angular shaping of the vertical stabilizers, in particular, very much aligns with the FH-97, as well as the XQ-58. Comparisons have also been drawn to General Atomics YFQ-42A, which is now under development for the U.S. Air Force's CCA program, but that design has vertical stabilizers with a different trapezoidal shape. It is worth noting here that the company behind the FH-97, Aerospace Times Feihong Technology Corporation, a subsidiary of the state-run China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), also presented a very different design dubbed the FH-97A in 2022. Unlike the FH-97, the FH-97A is a dead ringer for the MQ-28 Ghost Bat developed by Boeing's division in Australia. What we are seeing now might be a further addition to the FH-97 line. Today, additional images emerged showing two of the other new drone designs, which are tailless with modified delta wings. One of the designs has a very slender nose in front of a significantly wider body, while the other (also seen in an image at the top of this story) has a broader nose and center section. Both of them are still under wraps, with details that could point to their engine layouts and other features obscured. Based on their sizes compared to the trucks carrying them, the two drones are significantly larger than the FH-97-esque design. The larger size of the drones also points to higher performance. It's also worth noting that the drone with the broader design is highly similar, if not the same as an airframe or mockup thereof spotted in satellite imagery of the Chinese plane maker Shenyang's main plant earlier this year, which TWZ was first to report on. However, it is not entirely clear from what we can see now if the wings on the two designs are exactly the same. Two other drone designs seen in the previous satellite imagery of the parade preparations, which also appear to be tailless with modified diamond-like delta and cranked-kite wings, have yet to come into clearer view. As TWZ has previously reported, all of this reflects China's clear pursuit of multiple CCA and/or UCAV designs for land-based use, as well as operations from aircraft carriers and big-deck amphibious warfare ships. The two-seat J-20S stealth fighter is also now routinely depicted acting as an airborne drone controller, a role TWZ has long highlighted as being ideal for the aircraft. The KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft is also regularly discussed as part of China's future crewed-uncrewed air combat ecosystem, and it has been suggested that the H-6 missile carrier aircraft could act as a launch platform for lower-tier tactical drones. Un passage dans un reportage de CCTV-7 montre la possible collaboration entre un J-20 biplace et des #drones GJ-11 à faible observabilité.La représentativité est à confirmer. — East Pendulum (@HenriKenhmann) October 12, 2022 I suspect there may not be a single dedicated cca/MMUT platform Rather different CCAs for varying roles of ISR/EW and A2A/G combat etchttps:// — Húrin (@Hurin92) July 5, 2025 H-6K drops multiple drones — 彩云香江 (@louischeung_hk) October 12, 2022 China has also secured a broader position as a global leader in advanced uncrewed aviation developments. What appears to be a very large, low-observable, flying-wing, high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft also emerged earlier this year, as TWZ was first to report. Beyond CCA/UCAV-type drones, the upcoming parade, which will take place on September 3, will mark the 80th anniversary of the country's victory over Japan in World War II, is going to feature a variety of what Chinese authorities have referred to as 'new-type combat capabilities.' On the uncrewed aviation front, what looks to be a new vertical takeoff and landing-capable drone will be on display. From what can be seen of the design so far, it may have a twin intermeshing rotor design. This is a rare configuration for helicopters, crewed or uncrewed. The Kaman Corporation in the United States is best known for producing designs with this configuration, including a pair of CQ-24 drone versions of the company's K-MAX helicopter, which the U.S. Marine Corps operated for a time in Afghanistan. And another intersting find by bsdnf/SDF:'Intermeshing-rotor UAV like Kaman K-MAX/CQ-24A? Very compact & foldable rotor design, which means it can be carried on ship. The large fuselage may be used for transport missions like the K-MAX, but closer to Z-20 and more reasonable.' — @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) August 16, 2025 And also the rotary UAV/UCAV — @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) August 17, 2025 Imagery of the ongoing preparations shows that a number of new missile designs are also set to make their public debut. This includes the YJ-17, which has a shape in line with past 'waverider' type hypersonic missiles, as well as the YJ-19, with a style of air intake often seen on designs with scramjet engines. Another design, labeled YJ-20, has a long conical-like shape that is very much in line with a mysterious missile seen being fired from what was said to be a Type 055 destroyer in a video that appeared online in 2022. Various new missiles (ship UVLS launch?) confirmed, my 2c on roles:– YJ-15, ramjet compact supersonic?– YJ-17, waverider hypersonic glide?– YJ-19, ?maybe scramjet hypersonic?– YJ-20, biconical hypersonic/aeroballistic? Possibly seen before from REautomaton, SDF — Rick Joe (@RickJoe_PLA) August 17, 2025 The PLAN will publicly display 3 types of hypersonic anti-ship missiles in its inventory for this years VJ Day Parade.->Hypersonic Cruise Missile (HCM) ->Hypersonic Glide Vehicle with a delta-winged body similar to the DF-17->Hypersonic Glide Vehicle with a bi-conic design… — SomePLAOSINT (@someplaosint) August 16, 2025 What may be a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), or another type of very large weapon with a ballistic-missile like capability, as well as other new ground-launched missiles, also look set to be unveiled at the parade. Lack of launch stations on the right hand side of the cab and the short stature of the canister makes me suspect this is a loading vehicle but we'd need to see if it has a launch table or not before coming to any firm conclusions — Decker Eveleth (@dex_eve) August 16, 2025 The PLA Rocket Force's (PLARF) commitment to a new seemingly subsonic ground-launched land-attack cruise missile is a notable development given the strikingly modest scale at which the CJ-10 and CJ-10A cruise missiles are understood to have been the… — Shahryar Pasandideh (@shahpas) August 16, 2025 Previously unseen very large uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUV) with torpedo-like shapes, as well as uncrewed surface vessels (USV), will also be showcased at the parade. PLA Long UUV – AJX002 — David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) August 16, 2025 Images now circulating online also confirm that a number of new crewed tracked and wheeled armored vehicles will also feature prominently in the parade. There had been speculation that at least one new armored vehicle design would break cover at the event after a video showing mysteriously unidentified vehicles concealed underneath large, box-like structures began circulating on social media in July. Some of the armored vehicle crew members seen taking part in the parade preparations are wearing headsets of a kind often associated with augmented reality vision systems. Uncrewed ground vehicles (UGV) will also be on display at the parade. PLA Airborne Armored IFV — David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) August 17, 2025 PLA Gen IV Light Tank & Fire Support Platform — David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) August 16, 2025 PLA 105mm Unmanned Combat Vehicle(?) — David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) August 16, 2025 — David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) August 17, 2025 UGVs — David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) August 16, 2025 A variety of ground-based air and missile defense systems, including directed energy weapons, will take part in the parade, as well. PLA Unknown Air Defense Convoy | BeijingHQ-11(?)HQ-16(?)HQ-19(?)HQ-26(?)HQ-29(?)HQ-32(?) — David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) August 16, 2025 PLA Huge Laser Vehicle | Beijing — David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) August 16, 2025 It is, of course, important to stress that it is not immediately clear how many of the drones and other 'new' systems that will take part in the parade are actually operationally or even close to being put into service. Mockups have been shown at many major Chinese military parades in the past. At the same time, in many cases, those designs have turned into very real capabilities, with the GJ-11 being one of the best-known examples. A stealthier iteration of the GJ-11 design was one of the big reveals at a parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Communist state in China in 2019. All of this reflects larger efforts by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) to modernize its capabilities across the board. While the PLA retains a heavy regional focus, including around preparedness for a potential military intervention against Taiwan and enforcing China's widely rejected territorial claims in the South China Sea, it has also been working to expand its ability to project power further and further abroad. The PLA's nuclear deterrence capabilities and associated doctrine have also evolved significantly in recent years. Altogether, Beijing looks set to make full use of the upcoming parade on September 3 to send signals globally through the official debut of a host of new CCA/UCAV-type drones and many other advanced capabilities, big and small. Contact the author: joe@ Solve the daily Crossword
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an hour ago
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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): I Spend A Lot Of Time Shooting Down Rumors, Says Jim Cramer
We recently published . NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer recently discussed. August has been an interesting month for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), as after the firm received the Trump administration's approval to sell China the H20 GPUs, reports started to flow about potential security vulnerabilities or tracking software in the chips. While NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) asserted that no such vulnerabilities are present, more reports came to light and suggested that the Chinese government was advising firms not to buy its products. Cramer commented on yet another report about the firm: 'But we're seeing a lot of crazy stuff. I mean yesterday NVIDIA was down all day. I said why? Well it turns out that there was a short story out there that NVIDIA's gonna get late with the next chip which is the Vera Rubin, and therefore the MI450 by AMD is going to be in ascendance. The story was, I'll just use a word that I think is really kind of indicative of where we are. It was a lie. It was a lie. . .it was untrue. And it caused a lot of people to buy AMD up nine and sell NVIDIA. Now there's probably a new story about why NVIDIA's down today. Because NVIDIA is so easy to known down right now because they're an honest company. They don't come in and they're not a hyped company. They're like, okay, they don't come in and say what do we have to refute today? The fact is that the most major story about NVIDIA is a positive one. Which is that DeepSeek can't make it so called [inaudible] chips that it needs and they need the H20. Photo by Luke Chesser on Unsplash '. . .I don't know spreads these things. I spend so much time shooting these things down, it's like, I got the call at four o one saying finally got the saying here's what happened. I said, well you know, three fifty nine the call would have been more effective cause the market closed. But everyone was focused on Mr. Bullish or whatever. While we acknowledge the potential of NVDA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the . READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy Right Now. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
