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Deployments will fall to 48 gigawatts in 2028 when wind and solar projects will lose eligibility for the tax incentives, according to a report Thursday from BloombergNEF. That's compared to 81 gigawatts the prior year as developers race to complete projects before the cutoff date.
'A short path still exists for wind and solar projects to access these credits, but it will not be an easy road ahead for most developers,' analysts with BloombergNEF wrote in the report.
While renewables are often the cheapest source of electricity, the forecast underscores the reliance clean energy still has on subsidies. Eliminating federal incentives threatens to upend the US energy industry by hampering the roll out of wind and solar, which have become the biggest sources of new electricity generation.
The decline will come at a critical moment, as the power industry scrambles to deliver additional capacity to meet an expected jump in demand from data centers running artificial intelligence.
New wind, solar and energy storage additions through 2030 will drop 23% compared to an earlier BNEF forecast as a result of the new legislation. Onshore wind will see a 50% cut compared to the prior outlook with solar and energy storage experiencing a 23% and 7% drop, respectively.
The shift will be especially hard on the solar industry. Once developers lose tax credits, only 30% of planned solar projects will be able to deliver competitive prices and are 'expected to survive,' according to the research company Enverus. About 57% of wind farms will be competitive without credits, according to an Enverus report issued this week.
(Updates with comment from analysts in third paragraph)
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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivers his policy speech during a plenary session at the lower house of parliament on January 24, 2025, in Tokyo, National Interest Govella said opposition parties "have a great deal of incentive to criticize the trade deal and to capitalize on the weakness of the Ishiba government," but "actually blocking the deal's approval could backfire badly." Higher tariffs "would have significantly worse impacts on the Japanese economy and on Japanese people who are already feeling the effects of inflation," she said. Japanese voters have "generally been skeptical about the opposition's ability to lead" after their experience with the Democratic Party of Japan from 2009 to 2012, she continued. "So if the current opposition parties are perceived to be acting against Japan's national interest by blocking this deal, they could lose the supporters they've recently gained," Govella said. What People Are Saying President Trump posted to Truth Social: "We just completed a massive Deal with Japan, perhaps the largest Deal ever made … This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan." Prime Minister Ishiba told reporters, per The Wall Street Journal: "The government was determined to protect national interests," adding that the deal "will lead to Japan and the U.S. working together to create jobs, produce high-quality goods, and contribute to fulfilling various roles in the world going forward." What's Next Japanese lawmakers are scrutinizing the trade deal with the U.S.. They are unlikely to block it should they be called to vote on some or all of its components, though the Ishiba government no longer has a majority in either house of the Diet, complicating its passage.
