Kentucky Derby picture remains unclear heading into major races this weekend

Los Angeles Times

30-03-2025

Hallandale Beach, Fl. — As racing heads to its final big week of qualifying for the Kentucky Derby, it's becoming clear that there is no overwhelming favorite to win the most famous horse race in the world.
Saturday was supposed to help define the field but instead saw the favorites in the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby lose. For most of the horses, it was their first time going 1 1/8 miles, a furlong short of the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby.
Of course, winning your last race before the Kentucky Derby is no guarantee for success as you have to go back to 2017 when Always Dreaming won both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. That is if you discount Justify's performance in the Santa Anita Derby before winning the Triple Crown in 2018.
Justify crossed the finish line first in the Santa Anita Derby but was disqualified six years later when it was determined that the California Horse Racing Board mishandled a contamination positive on the colt. Justify, along with six other horses among five trainers, tested positive for jimson weed, which it was believed the horses ingested in their feed. No trainer was sanctioned.
This week, the Kentucky Derby field of 20 will mostly be filled barring injuries and one final small-points race at Keeneland on April 12. U.S. horses are competing for 17 of the spots with the remaining spots given to horses from Japan, Europe and the Middle East. If those spots are not filled, U.S. winning horses would complete the field.
Highlighting this weekend will be the Santa Anita Derby, in which futures pool leader Journalism will try for his fourth win in a row. The Southern California-based 3-year-old is trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli. Other races, also worth 100 points to the winner (if the field is six or more) will be the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The first and second-place finishers in those races will most likely have enough points to qualify for the first Saturday in May.
Tappan Street, running only his third race, won the Florida Derby on Saturday by 1 ¼ lengths beating favorite Sovereignty followed by Neoequos and Madaket Road.
'Anytime you have a young horse like this and you give them eight weeks between starts, it's always a concern,' said winning trainer Brad Cox. 'But this is a very smart horse. He's intelligent. I thought he would break very, very well today the way he was training, and he did. That put him in the race and put him in a great position.'
Cox said if the horse comes out of the race fit, he would ship him to Churchill Downs on Monday or Tuesday.
Madaket Road was the lone California-based horse in the race, running for Baffert.
He came out of the gate strong, was carried wide on the first turn, led down the backstretch and gave up the lead in the stretch.
'Right now, I just felt like it was a bit far,' said jockey Mike Smith. 'It wasn't like I went overly fast. I thought we got away really well and put him in a great place to kick on. Let me tell you something, those two or three horses in front of us are serious because I was running. I could hear him and I could feel him, and it was getting to him a little bit, but it's not because of a lack of trying. He still kicked.'
Madaket Road has 46 Derby qualifying points, which has him 16th in the rankings. However, it's unclear what his next race will be and if he really has a problem with distance, then he may be pointed to the 1 3/16-mile Preakness or an even shorter race.
In Arkansas, Baffert had the 4-5 favorite in Cornucopian, but the colt got caught in a vicious speed duel that left he and Speed King out of gas in the stretch. The first quarter-mile went in 22.46 seconds and the half mile in 45.21 seconds.
It was then easy for Sandman to win by 2 ½ lengths followed by Publisher, Coal Battle and Cornucopian.
'I couldn't believe [the early fractions],' said winning trainer Mark Casse. 'I said: 'Well, they'll have to be superstars to keep going.' The farther they went, the more confident I was. The faster they went, the more I smiled.'
Sandman's stretch run was a bit erratic, lugging out as her approached the finish line.
'I think that [lugging out] just shows how good he is,' Casse said. 'He wasn't focusing and he was still able to draw away. As [jockey] Jose [Ortiz] said, he wants to get into a rhythm. And if you can get him into that rhythm, he'll just go. Jose said he didn't take a deep breath when he pulled up.'
John Velazquez, Cornucopian's jockey, was succinct in his analysis.
'Nothing else you can say,' Velazquez said. 'We went fast.'
Cornucopian has only 15 qualifying points, putting him in 36th place and well out of Derby contention.
As a general rule, 50 points pretty much guarantees you a start in the Derby, with 40 points being near the edge of qualification.