Enemies could weaponise new weather technologies against UK

Times

7 hours ago

Ministers are examining how technologies designed to combat global warming could be weaponised by hostile foreign powers.
The government is working to understand the risks associated with an 'independent or third-party actor' carrying out so-called 'solar geoengineering'.
The process, also known as solar radiation modification (SRM), aims to cool the earth artificially by reflecting sunlight away from the planet's surface.
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This can theoretically be achieved using two main techniques. The first involves shooting aerosols into the atmosphere that will bounce the sun's rays back into space. The second involves increasing the reflectivity of clouds over the ocean by spraying tiny droplets of sea water into the air.
The UK government has tasked scientists with investigating the impact a large-scale deployment of these 'radical intervention measures'.
In a ministerial letter first obtained by the Daily Telegraph, Kerry McCarthy, the climate minister, wrote: 'The UK is a longstanding leader on climate action and an active international collaborator in scientific research. The government recognises the need to understand the risks and impacts of [solar radiation modification] approaches that could be deployed by an independent or third-party actor. Robust scientific evidence is essential for informing responsible and inclusive governance.'
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These third-party agents could include countries taking action to lower their carbon emissions, according to experts. However, they could also be hostile nations such as Russia using solar geoengineering techniques to orchestrate environmental disasters against their enemies.
Dan Marks, a research fellow in energy security at the Royal United Services Institute, said that worrying about the weaponisation of such technologies before they were fully understood was 'premature', but warned that it could be a factor in the long run.
He said: 'If the technology exists, then it would be unusual if you look at a pattern of history of warfare for it not to be [weaponised]. Targeting agriculture and food, logistics infrastructure, water or other natural resources is common.
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'Almost every country is vulnerable to some type of extreme weather, so if you can make that weather better with the technology, you can likely make it worse by deploying the technology at the opposite time.'
Whether or not the technology could be used by combatants with a degree of plausible deniability was another important factor, he said.
Marks cautioned that research was in its infancy, adding: 'I don't think this is something that's going to happen tomorrow and it's not clear if it can actually happen.'
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He said that policing the initial civilian use of the technology would be a more pressing concern because 'weather systems don't stop at borders'.
'If a country decided to deploy that kind of technology [to mitigate climate change], then there is a real question of how do you treat that legally and diplomatically?
'Equally, what if an Elon Musk or an activist group decided to do it, and decided to do it in the middle of the ocean? How do you govern that?'
Matt Ince, the associate director at Dragonfly Intelligence, said that governments had long been concerned about the potential for countries to use 'sun dimming technology' unilaterally to combat the most extreme effects of climate change.
He said that the new emerging threat was 'some sort of intentionally orchestrated environmental disaster', which is an 'avenue that Russia may pursue'.
'On the more imaginative end of the spectrum it's feasible it could involve deliberately trying to use solar geoengineering technologies to destabilise the climate within a European state and create chaos and a sense of discord, and force countries to become more inward focused,' he told the Daily Telegraph.
Critics of the proposed approaches argue that there are unknown risks and they distract from global efforts to reduce emissions.
More than 560 academics have signed an open letter calling for an 'international non-use agreement' on solar geoengineering.
The letter states: 'Without effective global and democratic controls, the geopolitics of possible unilateral deployment of solar geoengineering would be frightening and inequitable.'
The UK government's position is not to deploy solar radiation modification or any climate cooling approaches, but it has commissioned teams of scientists to research the technology and identify any risks with using it.
Aria, the government's advanced research and invention agency, is providing more than £50 million in funding for outdoor field trials, which include 'brightening clouds' to reflect sunshine as a potential way to prevent climate change.
Aria said: 'The only long-term solution to climate change is rapid decarbonisation and that must remain the priority. But regardless of emissions cuts, there is growing concern we may pass tipping points in the Earth's system.
'Aria's programme is focused on generating fundamental scientific knowledge about whether any proposed climate cooling approaches could ever be safe or feasible — or whether they should be ruled out entirely.'
The government said: 'The government is not in favour of using Solar Radiation Modification, but we support cautious, controlled research aimed at improving our understanding of its risks and impacts.
'The government supports Aria's mission to fund high-risk, high-reward transformational research programmes with long-term benefits.