This stock is the bellwether for all of retail, and here's what it just revealed

Fast Company

11 hours ago

After disappointing earnings from The Home Depot and Target this week, Walmart was closely watched by investors today.
[Images: Darya Lavinskaya/Adobe Stock, one/Adobe Stock]
BY
It hasn't been a great week for major retail stocks. Shares in both The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) have declined this week after posting their latest quarterly results, which disappointed investors.
Now America's largest retailer, Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), is also seeing its share price decline today after reporting its latest quarterly results. Here's what you need to know.
Walmart Q2 2026 earnings results
On Thursday, Walmart posted its second-quarter results for its 2026 fiscal year. Here are the main takeaways:
Total revenue: $177.4 billion, up 4.8%
Adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS): $0.68
U.S. comparable sales: up 4.6%
To put that top number into perspective, LSEG analysts had been expecting total revenue of $176.16 billion, meaning Walmart came in above expectations.
In more good news, the company also raised its outlook for its net sales growth for its entire fiscal year 2026. The company had previously said it expected net sales growth for FY26 to be between 3% to 4%. Now the company says that it expects its net sales growth to be between 3.75% to 4.75%.
But it wasn't all roses for Walmart. In an interview with CNBC, Walmart chief financial officer John David Rainey alluded to the elephant in every corporate boardroom across America: President Donald Trump's tariffs.
In the interview, Rainey warned that 'tariff-impacted costs are continuing to drift upwards' at the company. The higher those costs go, the more likely they are to impact Walmart's bottom line—if the company chooses to absorb the costs—or impact the company's sales, if the retailer needs to raise prices, which could turn shoppers off.
Yet Wall Street and economists will be happy to hear that Rainey says the company hasn't seen a change in consumer spending, suggesting that any tariff impacts have yet to dramatically change consumer spending so far.
'Everyone is looking to see if there are any creaks in the armor or anything that's happening with the consumer, but it's been very consistent,' Rainey said. 'They continue to be very resilient.'
His comments on the matter are important, as tens of millions of Americans shop at Walmart each week. Due to that, Walmart is seen as a type of bellwether for the overall health of the U.S. retail economy.
A tale of two retailers
Of course, not all big box retailers are created equal—and neither are their quarterly results.
Yesterday, Walmart's main competitor, Target, reported its Q2 2025 earnings. The company reported total revenue of $25.21 billion, which was slightly ahead of analyst estimates. But still, TGT shares got pummeled, falling over 6% for the day.
One of the main reasons Target shares declined so much seems to be investor dissatisfaction with the company's same-store comparable sales. In Target's case, comparable sales decreased by 1.9% for the quarter.
Walmart, on the other hand, has announced that its same-store comparable sales are trending up. The company reports that for the quarter, U.S. comparable sales increased 4.6%.
Yet despite this big quarterly difference between the two retailers, Walmart shares are also falling in pre-market trading.
Walmart (WMT) stock price falls
As of the time of this writing, WMT shares are down around 3% to $99.30 per share.
The fact that its share price is retreating despite its relatively good earnings and raised full-year fiscal forecast suggests that investors are still concerned about the retail industry—especially as President Trump's tariffs continue to come into full force.
If those tariffs necessitate price increases, it could negatively impact retailers' bottom lines for the remainder of the year, particularly as the all-important holiday shopping season approaches in just a few months.
Still, despite Walmart's price decline in pre-market trading today, investors in the company have had reason to cheer as of late, when it comes to the company's stock price.
Since the beginning of the year, WMT shares are up over 13% as of yesterday's market close. And over the past twelve months, WMT shares have surged more than 37% as of yesterday's closing price.
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