Rosenthal: Why Padres GM A.J. Preller's trade deadline approach will be as urgent as ever
Future Hall of Fame third baseman Manny Machado, 33, is still in his prime. Several top Padres pitchers are likely headed to free agency. And the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers look more vulnerable than expected.
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Here's the thing, though: Preller always acts with urgency. He would do that if he were under contract through 2036 instead of 2026. He also would do it if every Padres pitcher were eligible for free agency. Pitching turnover is not something Preller frets over. It's actually part of his plan.
As usual, Preller will be one of the prime executives to watch at the deadline, pricing every available player, including his own. He will buy. He will sell. He again will distinguish himself as one of the few lead executives who operate without fear.
What exactly does he intend? Check back Aug. 1. Preller might trade potential free-agent right-hander Dylan Cease and replace him with another starter. He might move closer Robert Suarez, who can hit the open market by declining a pair of $8 million player options, and pick off some other high-leverage reliever to keep his bullpen a strength. How much payroll flexibility Preller has — the Padres, according to FanGraphs, are slightly over the second, $261 million luxury tax threshold — is not known.
Preller's stated goal, in an interview with MLB Network Radio, is adding 'a bat or two.' Left field, where the Padres ranked 28th in OPS entering Thursday's play, and catcher, where they ranked 26th, are the obvious positions to upgrade. But rarely does Preller follow a straight line.
The Padres, since the offseason, have fielded offers on all of their potential free agents, including right-hander Michael King and first baseman Luis Arraez. When they are open to trading a player or interested in acquiring another team's player, it never qualifies as a surprise.
What is surprising about the Padres is that they entered Thursday ranked 25th in runs per game, despite Preller's long-term commitments to Machado, right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr., shortstop Xander Bogaerts, center fielder Jackson Merrill and infielder Jake Cronenworth. Machado and Tatis are the only Padres with an OPS above .800. The lineup's lack of depth only adds to the pressure on the other supposed anchors.
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Many in the industry expect the Padres to eventually crash under the weight of their big contracts. Bogaerts, 32, is earning $25 million per season through 2033. Machado, 33, has a backloaded deal that will pay him $35 million annually from 2027 to 2033. Tatis, 26, has a similar structure and will earn $36 million annually from 2029 to 2036.
Those contracts may or may not prove albatrosses. But Preller's ability to continually regenerate his pitching staff, largely at club-friendly rates, is a big reason the Padres might reach the postseason for the fourth time in six years — and keep their competitive window open for the foreseeable future.
The need for Preller to win with Cease, King and Suarez is no greater than the urgency he faced in 2023, when Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez were headed to free agency. How did Preller recover from their departures? By trading Juan Soto for pitchers King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vásquez and Jhonny Brito, then flipping Thorpe in a package for Cease.
Preller doesn't exactly view pitchers as expendable, but he knows few stand the test of time the way a position player like Machado will. His long-term contracts for starters — five years, $100 million for Joe Musgrove, and six years, $108 million for Yu Darvish — were reasonable gambles (well, as reasonable as a deal extending through Darvish's age-42 season can be). Nick Pivetta's four-year, $55 million deal, which pays him only $4 million this season and gives him the ability to decline a player option after 2026, looks like a bargain.
Yet, for all of Preller's best-laid plans, the Padres' rotation this season is not at all what he envisioned. Cease has been inconsistent. Musgrove is recovering from Tommy John surgery. King and Darvish also have missed huge chunks of time. Not to worry. The Padres entered Thursday ranked 12th in rotation ERA, in part because Preller keeps coming up with new arms.
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Three relatively unheralded pitchers — Vásquez, Ryan Bergert (sixth round pick in 2021) and Stephen Kolek (Rule 5 pick from Seattle in 2023) — have combined for a 3.79 ERA in 204 1/3 innings. The Padres are drawing trade inquiries on Bergert and Kolek as well as Double-A prospects Henry Baez and Braden Nett, according to a source briefed on their discussions. All could contribute to next year's rotation, provided they are still with the team.
Cease, a top-five Cy Young finisher in 2022 and '24, obviously has greater value, particularly in a market starved for top-of-the-rotation starters. To interested teams — which is to say, pretty much every contender — his 4.59 ERA matters only so much. His 3.48 expected ERA is more than a run per nine innings lower than his actual figure. His average fastball velocity (97.1 mph) and strikeout rate are in the top 12 percent of the league.
Preller could use Cease to get the hitter he wants or to acquire prospects who would enable him to upgrade his offense in a larger deal. His farm system, ravaged by the Soto trade and other deals, includes two top prospects — shortstop Leodalis De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas — but little else beyond the lower levels. And Salas has been out since April 26 with a stress fracture in his back, effectively putting his trade value on hold.
The Athletic's Keith Law and Baseball America ranked the Padres' system 26th before the start of spring training. Padres officials take such evaluations only so seriously. In 2022, the year the Padres acquired Soto and Josh Hader at the deadline, Law had them 15th before the season started, Baseball America 21st.
Preller will figure out something. He always does. Let other teams sweat their models, fuss over surplus values and engage in paralysis by analysis. Urgency is Preller's default setting.
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New York Times
31 minutes ago
- New York Times
Blue Jays soaring in AL East after years falling short of expectations
On April 30, the Toronto Blue Jays' odds to win the American League East were at 7 percent. Now, with less than eight weeks remaining in baseball's arduous 162-game schedule, Toronto's odds of taking its first division title in a decade are nearly 70 percent. The AL is wide open, and first-place Toronto is a legitimate candidate to play deep into October. It's a shift for a talented club that for years has fallen short of expectations but is now finally exceeding them. The Jays, who told free agents all winter they were all-in on the 2025 season, were still projected by FanGraphs to win 82 games and finish fourth in the AL East when the season began. Since May 1, they've surged to a 53-32 record, a complete turnaround from a last-place finish in 2024 in which manager John Schneider acknowledged 'everything went to sh–.' Advertisement Toronto — which has the benefit of deep-pocketed ownership in Rogers Communications Inc. — boasted a record payroll last year only to flounder and sell off expiring contracts at the trade deadline. The front office's message then wasn't that the team was giving up on its core group. Instead, they insisted, the trades were designed to bolster the farm system and turn things around quickly. Still, the wait-and-have-faith approach didn't exactly sit well with a restless Toronto fan base that hasn't seen a playoff series win since 2016. The Jays — who stayed aggressive with last week's trade deadline additions — seem to have unlocked the promise of a talented core, which is playing with an exuberance that eluded previous iterations. 'It mostly comes down to me not putting the pieces together appropriately,' said general manager Ross Atkins, who wasn't quite on the hot seat this winter but was the source of significant fan frustration. 'We needed to make an adjustment. We thought long and hard about our process and the alignment we had.' In 2021, Toronto scored 846 runs (5.22 runs a game). By last year, a team built more on run prevention scored just 671 runs (4.14 per game). Small tweaks, Atkins acknowledged, weren't working. The 2024 Jays featured a middling offense that hit the fifth-fewest home runs in baseball and ran the bases terribly. Only the Yankees (-16 runs) got less out of their legs than the Jays (-14), according to Statcast. The offseason overhaul began with the hiring of hitting coach David Popkins, who made such an impression during his interview that he was offered the job that night. 'Easiest hire of my managerial career,' said Schneider, who felt like his players were eager for more information and a modernized approach. Popkins and assistant hitting coaches Lou Iannotti and Hunter Mense have received rave reviews for overhauling pregame and in-game prep and taking a creative approach to scoring. The Jays put the ball in play more than anyone in baseball (they entered Wednesday with an MLB-best 17.1 percent strikeout rate), and the trio of hitting coaches emphasize each player's strengths. Advertisement 'Be who you are,' is one of Popkins' popular phrases, which has resulted in Myles Straw bunting, contact master Ernie Clement tapping out 112 hits in his first 112 games and George Springer being on track to have his best offensive season since joining Toronto before the 2021 season. The Jays were a good contact team last year (20.3 percent K-rate), but they're better this year, with improved power and a deeper, more multi-faceted lineup. The Jays have scored the sixth-most runs in baseball (556) this year with an MLB-best .267 batting average. They could be the first team to finish a season with a sub-18 percent strikeout rate since the 2017 Houston Astros. The Jays have won thanks to multi-homer games by Springer (who is rehabbing from a concussion). They've also won with small ball. In keeping strikeouts low and the ball in play, there's constant pressure on opposing teams. 'Know what club to take out of the bag,' is another Pop'ism, an ode to golf and a directive toward situational hitting. If a spot calls for a bunt, take out your putter. If it calls for a home run, get the driver. Players have bought into that approach, one made considerably easier on a team that uses its whole roster to mix and match and maximize every game. 'That was the message from Day 1 of spring training,' Schneider said. 'Everyone is going to be a part of this.' If you're not starting for the Jays, you're probably still playing. Toronto routinely uses 11 or 12 of its 13 position players in games, with 15 players who have at least 100 at-bats. The roster is built for flexibility. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido and Straw can handle all three outfield spots, Addison Barger moves between third base and right field, Davis Schneider (no relation to John) bounces from left field to second base to designated hitter, and Clement can pretty much slot in anywhere on the dirt. 'His glove is one of the best infielders I've been around,' marvels Jays starter Kevin Gausman. Advertisement Regulars like Bo Bichette — who leads the team with 74 RBIs — call the Jays' part-time players the heartbeat of the team. Bichette, who homered twice in Monday's rout of the Rockies, has done his part too. He leads baseball with 143 hits, 10 more than the next closest player (Manny Machado) as of Wednesday. Bichette's renaissance after his career-worst season in 2024 has been one of the biggest storylines of the season. His pending free agency could be the biggest story of the team's offseason. On the baserunning side, the Jays were abysmal in an 11-14 April that looked like 2024 all over again. The coaches challenged the players to improve. The Jays don't have the pure speed of a team like the Milwaukee Brewers, but they can — as assistant manager DeMarlo Hale points out — make smart decisions. And they started to. In June, the Jays were among the league's best baserunning teams and, according to Schneider, the top team on advancing on hits. Toronto has its own internal baserunning scoring system (they rank 20th on the season by Statcast) that has helped foster players' competitive spirit. 'When a guy scores from first on a double and they know what it means, they know what that does for your score,' Schneider said. 'It's cool, you know? And then it gets a little contagious.' The Jays take the season in two-week bites, called 'State of the Squad,' where they look at what the team is doing well over the previous 14 days and what it can do to improve. Players and coaches alike have commended this year's group on the ability to live in the moment, good or bad. The last two weeks have been a mixed bag, with series wins against the Tigers and Rockies and losses to the Orioles and Royals, as well as some personnel upgrades. In need of pitching help, Toronto added relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland, starting pitcher Shane Bieber, first baseman Ty France and catching prospect Brandon Valenzuela at the deadline, losing three of their top five pitching prospects in return. Bieber, who is rehabbing back from Tommy John surgery, has the highest upside of the additions, as the former AL Cy Young award winner could give the rotation a potential ace down the stretch if he can regain his past form. The Jays' current group features Gausman, Eric Lauer (who has been a revelation), José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer, who has looked more like a future Hall of Famer in each of his last two outings. Scherzer, who turned 41 last month, signed with the Jays because of their aggressiveness in wanting to win. Despite significant financial resources that put them in baseball's upper payroll tier, recent offseasons have often been defined by their failure to sign big free agents. Last winter, they missed on superstar Shohei Ohtani. This winter, the pursuits of Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki were futile. Signing outfielder Anthony Santander (who has been injured since May) and Scherzer helped shift the narrative. So did keeping Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. On April 9, the Jays agreed to a 14-year, $500 million extension with their homegrown slugger. It was one of the biggest moves in franchise history, and declared Toronto's intention to stay competitive for the foreseeable future. But trying to win and actually winning are two very different things. It's fair to wonder if Toronto's style of play is sustainable and if the Jays — the only team with an entire country behind them — can finally avenge their October woes, which include playoff losses in 2020, '22 and '23. Advertisement The Jays players believe this year's team can do it, with some spotlighting their fundamentals (they also rank eighth in defense runs saved) and others highlighting how low-strikeout lineups tend to fare well in the postseason. Almost everyone mentioned team chemistry as evidence that this season is more than a hot streak. There is something about this team, players and coaches believe. Gausman said they haven't had to force any team bonding. Guys want to be around each other, and the younger guys are so into the game's minutiae and improving on the margins that Gausman endearingly calls them baseball rats. Ask Schneider — at the helm since he was named interim manager in 2022 — what stands out about this group, and he mentions the same thing. 'There's no jerks,' said Scherzer, who balks at the question of whether the Jays can sustain their torrid pace. To him, it's not about the results. It's about the process, both in getting to October and playing your best baseball. 'Great teams are a sum of their parts. … Here, everybody recognized their (past) mistakes in this whole organization,' Scherzer said. '(The front office) upstairs, coaches, players — everybody really wanted to fix everything, and they wanted a total overhaul of operations. It's tough to know how bad the past was. I just get to see what the changes are, and right now this is a well-functioning team in every facet.' (Top photo of Lukes and Clement: Duane Burleson / Getty Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
San Francisco Chronicle
an hour ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Patrick Bailey's home run was a Bay Area sports miracle. There's one more I'll never forget
I watched San Francisco Giants catcher Patrick Bailey's game-winning inside-the-park walk-off home run on television Tuesday night with a mix of emotions. That breakdown was about 95% elation and 5% jealousy for those who got to witness the win against the Philadelphia Phillies in person. Were you there? You're going to remember that pure moment of joy for the rest of your life. There are many kinds of indelible Bay Area sports memories. Stephen Curry firing astonishing 3-pointers during an NBA championship and Madison Bumgarner strutting out of the bullpen to close out a World Series are examples of one kind of special moment. But there's another kind, when the most improbable thing happens, in a game with few major consequences, that reaffirms your faith in comebacks and triumph of the human spirit and (in my case) makes you question your atheism for just a second. If you were to make a list of 'least likely things that could happen' in Tuesday night's contest, a game-winning inside-the-park home run by the catcher had to be near the top of the list. Bailey is not the slowest catcher in Giants history (*cough* Bengie Molina *cough*), but his five lifetime steals, one home run this year and .190 average entering the at-bat are vital to this story. I would have guessed 'Wilmer Flores gets the final out on a hidden ball trick' and 'Lou Seal pitches for the win in the 15th inning' before I would even think about Bailey winning the game by covering 360 feet, with no errors, and not needing to slide into home. I witnessed my own 'Patrick Bailey moment' on Jan. 12, 1991, when the 49ers hosted Washington for a divisional playoff game at Candlestick Park. Michael Carter was a nose tackle (and future Olympic shot put medalist) who was a very lean 285 pounds when the 49ers drafted him in 1984, but gained a lot of weight, looking closer to 350 pounds by the early '90s. 'Michael Carter sealing the game with a long interception return' seemed outside the realm of possibility. But I was watching from the stands as quarterback Mark Rypien's arm was hit during a throw, the ball flipped into Carter's hands and he rumbled a comically slow 61 yards for a touchdown. The crowd screamed during the 11.65 seconds it took him to cover half the field, then absolutely exploded. I was in tears jumping up and down. My mother, a registered nurse who always thought about player health, was begging the team to give him an oxygen tank. It was pure sports fan bliss. I will never forget every detail. In both the Bailey and Carter cases so many variables had to align. Carter had forward momentum, needed the opposition to freeze so he could get a great jump and benefited from three perfect blocks. Bailey needed Phillies center fielder Brandon Marsh to aggressively back up the play and the ball to bounce at a bizarre 90-degree angle off that weird Oracle Park brick wall, so it quickly pinballed into the open space left from Marsh's hustle. (The Giants broadcast team later noted Bailey's hit had the distance to be a home run in any other ballpark.) There are many other 'most improbable thing' examples in sports history. The Carlos Martinez home run on May 26, 1993, that bounced off Jose Canseco's head. Klay Thompson's 37-point explosion in the third quarter of an otherwise meaningless Jan. 23, 2015, game against the Sacramento Kings. In each case, I've forgotten what happened next. All that remains is the moment where everything seemed surreal and perfect. What happened after the Carter interception? I had to look it up, but it turned out to be one of the worst moments in 49ers history, when the New York Giants upset the 49ers in the NFC Finals, with a Roger Craig fumble that was every bit as devastating as the Carter return was transcendent. It doesn't really matter. Sports miracles don't happen very often. And some moments are simply bigger than whatever happens next.
Boston Globe
3 hours ago
- Boston Globe
Here in 2025, and after four World Series titles, it's time to name our All-Quarter-Century Red Sox team
Related : As further circumstantial evidence that time seems to be accelerating, the century already is a quarter complete — more than that if you count 2000 rather than 2001 as its start, which we do here, since that's when we celebrated the century's turn while exhaling about Y2K. Advertisement With that it mind, it seemed a fitting time to put together our All-Quarter-Century Red Sox team. A few rules : We used Wins Above Replacement as a major factor, but not always the deciding factor, since sentiment and nostalgia must be at play here. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Also, our roster is 25 players, with everyone in their appropriate role. You'll see what that means. Many of the choices were easy. A couple are worthy of serious debate. One I left up to you. And every player selected won a World Series with the Red Sox. Sure couldn't have said that last century. The squad: Catcher: Jason Varitek Who else? The stoic captain of the 2004 and 2007 champs is the only player ever to catch four no-hitters, and few Red Sox have ever had a higher approval rating. From 2000 until his retirement after the 2011 season, he provided 22.3 Wins Above Replacement, more than three times the Red Sox' second-most productive catcher of this century, Christian Vazquez (6.9 WAR). Also, Varitek is the all-time leader in the wildly undervalued sabermetric stat MARETM — Making A-Rod Eat The Mitt. Advertisement Catcher Jason Varitek had a lot of memorable moments with the Red Sox, but none more memorable than when he got into Yankees star Alex Rodriguez's face. Barry Chin/The Boston Globe First base: Kevin Youkilis A.k.a. the Greek God of Walks, or, more colloquially, YOOOOOOOOOOUK! He spent plenty of time at both infield corners for the Red Sox during his 2004-12 run, playing 464 games at third base and 613 at first. His greatest successes came while playing the less hot of those corners. He won a Gold Glove at first base in 2007, finished third in the American League MVP voting in '08 and sixth in '09, and averaged 5.7 WAR per season from 2007-10. Second base: Dustin Pedroia Dare you to tell him someone else is the pick. Actually, based on sentiment, there is no other choice, and based on analytics, he's the easiest call in this exercise. The 2007 AL Rookie of the Year (and World Series scourge of Jeff Francis) and '08 MVP (when he had 54 doubles, 213 hits, and 118 runs), four-time All-Star, and annual Heart Of It All accounted for 51.8 WAR during his 14 full or partial seasons with the Red Sox. Among players who played at least 40 percent of their games at second base, Mark Bellhorn is a very distant second at 4.1 WAR. Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia was the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year and '08 MVP, and a four-time All-Star. Davis, Jim Globe Staff Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts This might seem a tough call for someone who has spent many words here over the years arguing with great effectiveness that Nomar Was Better Than Jeter*. (*from 1997-2003. Then the world turned cruel). But it's not, you see, because this is a vote for stability over mercurial excellence. Nomar Garciaparra did have spectacular seasons after the turn of the century. He hit .372 to win his second straight batting title in 2000, with 7.4 WAR, and after a wrist injury wiped out his 2001 season, he came back perhaps stronger than we recall in 2002 (6.8 WAR) and '03 (6.1). I trust you know what happened in 2004. Bogaerts, who tallied 34.6 WAR to Garciaparra's 20.8 with the Sox this century, was a picture of poise and professionalism in Boston while contributing to the 2013 World Series victory as a 20-year-old kid and the '18 championship as one of the core stars of the most dominant Red Sox team ever. Advertisement Third base: Gonna leave this one up to you, friendly reader. Welp, the analytics claim the choice is easy: Rafael Devers, whose 24.8 WAR more than doubles runner-up Mike Lowell (10.6). But no one within 100 miles or so of the 617 area code wants to go with Devers after his shenanigans this season, and hey, by the way, here's a fun fact: The Red Sox and Giants with Devers this season: 53 wins, 62 losses. The Red Sox and Giants without Devers this season: 68 wins, 46 losses. Makes you think, right? So if you remain Devers-averse, and I presume you do, take your pick at third base among the steady Lowell (Alex Bregman reminds me of him a lot), Mariano-slayer Bill Mueller, one awesome year of Adrian Beltre, or anyone but Pablo Sandoval, really. Advertisement Chad Finn's all-quarter-century Red Sox lineup, with room for readers to decide on their own third baseman. John Hancock/Globe Staff Left field: Manny Ramirez Seventeen years — yep, it's been that long — after he was traded to the Dodgers, I still miss watching him hit, and I will even beyond the day his 2007 playoff home run off Angels closer Francisco 'K-Rod' Rodriguez finally lands. Center field: Johnny Damon Yeah, yeah, he left to sign with the Yankees after the 2005 season, and helped them win their most recent World Series in '09. (Wow, it's been awhile.) Call him a traitor if you must, but nothing he could have done — or ultimately did — in the Bronx could come close in relevance to his two-homer, seven-RBI all-timer of a clutch performance in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. His time in New York was temporary. His time here is forever. Johnny Damon had two home runs and seven RBIs in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series against the Yankees. Jim Davis/Globe Staff Right field: Mookie Betts Betts's 42.5 WAR is third among Red Sox hitters this century, trailing only David Ortiz (52.5) and Pedroia (51.8). But they were each here for 14 seasons. Betts was here for just six, averaging more than 7 WAR per season, including a staggering 10.7 in his 2018 MVP season, when he hit .346 with 32 homers. Somehow, he's in his sixth season with the Dodgers, and anyone who wants to come out of the woodwork to say his tough 2025 season validates the Sox' foolish decision to trade him can go chew gravel. Designated hitter: David Ortiz 'He is the greatest clutch hitter you, your dad, your granddad, and in all likelihood, your unborn children will ever see. He's Big Papi, larger than life, bigger than the biggest moments.' I wrote that in June 2005, and 20 years, countless highlights, and one Hall of Fame induction later, all I'd change is including your wife, mom, and grandmother, as well. Advertisement Starting pitcher: Pedro Martinez As we said in the '80s: No duh. His 2000 season stands as one of the greatest in baseball history: 18 wins, 6 losses, a 1.74 ERA (in the juiced-hitter era, when the league average was 4.91), 284 strikeouts in 217 innings, and 11.7 WAR, the most by a starting pitcher this century. Following the greatest pitcher I've ever seen in the rotation: Jon Lester (29.9 WAR), Josh Beckett (22.3), Curt Schilling (17.7), and Chris Sale (17.0). Closer: Keith Foulke Jonathan Papelbon actually has the most WAR among Sox closers since 2000, and he closed out the 2007 World Series with style. But Foulke got many of the most tense and toughest outs in Red Sox history during the 2004 postseason. He's the choice. And I'm keeping Koji Uehara on this roster to get it to 25 players, and because he induced the least stress of any closer the Red Sox have ever had. Keith Foulke closed out the Curse-breaking 2004 World Series for the Red Sox. Jim Davis/Globe Staff Others to fill out our 25-man roster: Lefthanded setup man: Hideki Okajima. Righthanded setup man: Mike Timlin. Utilityman: Brock Holt. Player you want fielding the last out of a playoff series: Pokey Reese. Backup outfielder: Gabe Kapler. Pinch runner: Dave Roberts. Stole a base of some magnitude once, I've been told. Designated inspirational speechmaker: Kevin Millar, for the Don't Let Us Win Tonight schtick that proved prescient, and then legendary. Designated series-clinching pitcher and team goof: Derek Lowe. Pitcher who always has his spikes on just in case: Tim Wakefield. Because there's no point in having this team without Wake. Advertisement Chad Finn can be reached at
