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Corn resumes slide as strong US crop prospects weigh

Corn resumes slide as strong US crop prospects weigh

Zawya18 hours ago
PARIS/CANBERRA - Chicago corn futures eased on Tuesday, with a bounce from contract lows petering out as U.S. government data confirmed favourable conditions for this year's corn crop. Soybeans edged down, with strong crop ratings also weighing on prices, while wheat futures also fell with advancing northern hemisphere harvests hanging over the market. Investors were looking ahead to U.S. inflation data later on Tuesday for further direction, while continuing to assess the possible impact of sweeping tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Monday that 74% of the U.S. corn crop and 70% of the soybean crop were in good-or-excellent condition - the highest July ratings since 2016. Forecasts continued to point to a favourable mix of moderate heat and regular rain in the week ahead for the U.S. Midwest. "U.S. weather looks great, seasonals are broadly bearish," Peak Trading Research said in a note.
"Markets have shaken off Trump's new tariff volleys and are now nervously anticipating today's CPI print," it said, referring to the Consumer Price Index. The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.7% at $4.15-1/4 a bushel by 1039 GMT.
The December delivery contract hit a low of $4.07-1/2 on Monday. CBOT soybeans edged down 0.4% to $10.03-1/2 a bushel after touching $9.98-1/4 on Monday, their lowest level since April 9. CBOT wheat eased 0.5% to $5.39 a bushel. Corn had regained some ground on Monday and earlier on Tuesday, with analysts seeing the market prone to bounces at current low levels.
"We remain fundamentally constructive on CBOT corn and see value for consumers at current levels," analysts at JPMorgan said, calling the corn market oversold. China, the world's biggest soybean buyer, imported record volumes of soy in June, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed, driven by a surge in shipments from top supplier Brazil.
The National Oilseed Processors Association is expected to say the U.S. soybean crush dropped in June to a four-month low, analysts said, though it would still be the largest June crush on record due to expanded processing capacity. The wheat market is awaiting the outcome of an import tender being held by Algeria for a potential demand boost amid the arrival of large crops across the northern hemisphere.
Prices at 1039 GMT Last Change Pct Move CBOT wheat 539.00 -2.50 -0.46 CBOT corn 415.25 -2.75 -0.66 CBOT soy 1003.50 -3.50 -0.35 Paris wheat 198.00 0.75 0.38 Paris maize 206.75 0.25 0.12 Paris rapeseed 469.00 3.25 0.70 WTI crude oil 66.52 -0.46 -0.69 Euro/dlr 1.17 0.00 0.11 Most active contracts - Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel, Paris futures in euros per metric ton.
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Popping the dollar's 'anti-bubble?': Mike Dolan
Popping the dollar's 'anti-bubble?': Mike Dolan

Zawya

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  • Zawya

Popping the dollar's 'anti-bubble?': Mike Dolan

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Markets call Trump's bluff on Russian oil sanctions in increasingly risky game: Bousso
Markets call Trump's bluff on Russian oil sanctions in increasingly risky game: Bousso

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  • Zawya

Markets call Trump's bluff on Russian oil sanctions in increasingly risky game: Bousso

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Investors seek protection from risk of Fed chief's ouster
Investors seek protection from risk of Fed chief's ouster

Zawya

timean hour ago

  • Zawya

Investors seek protection from risk of Fed chief's ouster

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The minutes from the Fed's June 17-18 meeting, which were released last week, showed little support for a cut at the central bank's July 29-30 meeting, as most policymakers remain concerned about the inflationary risks that Trump's import tariffs could pose. Even so, Trump has said Powell's resignation "would be a great thing." The president, who cannot fire the Fed chief over a monetary policy dispute, and his administration have publicly called for Powell's exit or for rates to be cut on multiple occasions this month. "While short-dated yields could fall in this scenario based on a faster pace of Fed rate cuts moving forward, longer-dated yields would likely recalibrate higher for stickier inflation and rising term premia based on the erosion of institutional trust," said Chip Hughey, managing director of fixed income at Truist Advisory Services. Bond investors are pricing in increased price pressures in the inflation market over the next few years. 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Powell's seat on the Fed's Board of Governors extends to January 31, 2028. The White House did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. "I still see the risks as fairly minimal, but higher than they were a week or two ago," said Matt Orton, head of market strategy at Raymond James Investment Management. Orton still favors a diversification away from Treasuries and into gold, as well as both high-quality value and growth equities. "The risk-reward for me in Treasuries right now just isn't there." ON THE HUNT While the odds of Powell being ousted or resigning are viewed as low, analysts see some chance that Trump could nominate someone for the job early to influence monetary policy through a "shadow" Fed chief. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month the Trump administration is focusing now on finding a replacement for Powell this fall. Morgan Stanley said in a note that the risk of a shadow Fed chief is a less relevant question at this point. "Until Powell's term is up, though, the bigger risk to our Fed forecast is our economic forecast ... where we remain quite humble," Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's chief global economist, wrote. Although market participants see the risk of weakening the central bank's independence as low, many investors are increasingly incorporating this prospect into their portfolios. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon pointed to those risks in an earnings call on Tuesday, saying: "The independence of the Fed is absolutely critical, and not just for the current Fed chairman, who I respect, Jay Powell, but for the next Fed chairman." "Playing around with the Fed can often have adverse consequences, absolutely opposite of what you might be hoping for," Dimon added. George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring, said the asset manager has been positioning for steeper yield curves, in line with an environment of future rate cuts and growing budget deficits. "That strategy of positioning for a steeper yield curve over the coming months and quarters seems to make a lot of sense. It's justified economically, the technicals support it, and then the political landscape also," he said. If stocks could get a boost from lower rates initially, the pressure from higher long-term rates would cast a shadow over them, investors say. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said U.S. equities would "probably be OK, but I think that it would likely continue to accelerate the trend of global investors moving capital away from the U.S." "Once investors question the independence of the Fed, it just becomes a less stable monetary environment," Ablin said. (Reporting by Carolina Mandl, Matt Tracy and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, in New York; Editing by Alden Bentley and Paul Simao)

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