In 2025 offseason, what should the Rockets pay Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams?

USA Today

3 hours ago

In a Houston Rockets offseason preview episode of the Game Theory Podcast, The Athletic's Sam Vecenie makes the case for what new contracts with Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams could look like.
Vecenie believes a new VanVleet deal should come in at three years and between $90 and $100 million in total value, while Adams could be at the same length and between $42 and $45 million. Both players are now 31 years old, so a three-season deal could potentially carry each through the remainder of his prime NBA years.
'Adams would basically take up the money you're saving by redoing Fred's deal,' Vecenie says of the combined figures and their impact on the Rockets.
The Rockets currently have a team option for VanVleet at $44.9 million for the 2025-26 season, and it has been reported that Houston could look to negotiate a contract extension for more years and at a lower annual value. The upside to VanVleet would be locking in more guaranteed money in total, while the advantage to the Rockets would be lowering his payroll number next season.
To Vecenie's point, should VanVleet's 2025-26 annual figure be reduced from $44.9 million to something just above $30 million, that gap would nearly match the starting salary in his proposed Adams deal.
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Adams made $12.6 million this season, and the NBA's non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NT-MLE) this offseason is expected to be in the range of a $14.1-million starting salary. Many teams have access to the NT-MLE, so a contract in that general vicinity would seem realistic, on an annual basis. And from Houston's perspective, it's unlikely they would ask or expect Adams to take a paycut after an elite playoff performance.
It's worth noting that VanVleet had a very strong playoff run, as well. However, his larger salary compared to Adams could make it more likely that he takes a paycut, and especially because there aren't many teams with significant salary cap space this offseason. In the absence of external market leverage, that could drive down his annual cost, on a relative basis.
By lowering the combined figure of the VanVleet and Adams contracts, that could provide Houston with additional space (relative to the NBA's tax thresholds) to help fill out the rest of its roster. Relative to 2024-25, the Rockets will be a much more expensive team in 2025-26 due to salary increases for fifth-year players Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green — which makes saving money at other spots more of a priority.
Teams can exclusively negotiate with their own pending free agents (in this case, VanVleet and Adams) immediately after the conclusion of the 2025 NBA Finals. Then, on June 30, negotiations between free agents and other teams can begin.
In a perfect world, the Rockets would reach deals with VanVleet and Adams before that later date. The question will be if everyone is on the same financial page.
It has been widely reported that VanVleet and the Rockets want to stick together, and Houston has expressed optimism that Adams wants to return, as well.
Because the Rockets are likely to operate above the salary cap, no matter what (due in large part to the raises for Sengun and Green), there isn't much incentive to letting VanVleet and/or Adams leave for another team — since Houston wouldn't have the ability to use anywhere close to that same money to fill those rotation roles. In the aftermath of a 52-30 season with the No. 2 record in the Western Conference, the Rockets are largely operating with a win-now approach.
To say the least, VanVleet and Adams are quite helpful to that ambition.