Eskom adapts to winter demand spikes with strategic generation recovery plan
Image: Bhekikhaya Mabaso/Independent Newspapers
Eskom announced on Friday that its power system has demonstrated stability, effectively managing increased electricity demand as South Africa experiences a cold snap.
The utility reported that while occasional system constraints arise, strategic deployment of sufficient emergency reserves helps meet peak demands during critical morning and evening hours.
Eskom's Generation Recovery Plan is underway, aiming to restore a total of 2 450MW of generation capacity before the evening peak on Monday, 30 June 2025, in a proactive move to enhance grid reliability.
From the week of 20 to 26 June, Eskom said planned maintenance efforts have averaged 3 789MW, marking a decline in planned outages. Concurrently, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) fluctuated between 60% and 64%, ultimately resulting in a month-to-date average of 60.61%.
However, Eskom faces challenges as the Unplanned Capability Loss Factor (UCLF) stands at 29.36% for the current financial year, reflecting a worrying increase from last year's 27.25%.
The uptick in unplanned outages can be partly attributed to delays in returning units from maintenance, specifically the 800MW from Medupi Unit 4, which has not yet been brought back online.
At present, unplanned outages total 15 137MW, with the 800MW from Medupi impacting the available generation capacity of 30 703MW.
This figure notably excludes the 720MW from Kusile Unit 6, which, although not yet fully operational, has been supplying power to the national grid since 23 March 2025.
Nevertheless, this combined generation capacity positioned Eskom well to meet Friday night's anticipated peak demand of 28 810MW.
Recent statistics revealed a decline in the year-to-date load factor for open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs), which now stands at 11.37%, reflecting a slight dip from the previous week.
Despite this reduction, the load factor remained strong when compared to 6.21% during the same timeframe last year.
Diesel usage is projected to decrease as more units return to service from long-term repairs, thereby bolstering generation capacity.
Eskom said the Winter Outlook, released on 5 May 2025, continues to stand valid, indicating that load shedding might be averted if unplanned outages remain below 13 000MW.
It said should outages rise to 15 000MW, any necessitated load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days over 153 days, confined to Stage 2.
Key performance indicators revealed that during the week of 20 to 26 June, unplanned outages averaged 14 696MW—an increase of 2 815MW from last year and above the base case estimate of 13 000MW by 1 696MW.
This escalation largely stems from the ongoing situation with Medupi Unit 4, which was initially anticipated to return to service by 30 May 2025.
Meanwhile, planned maintenance for the financial year-to-date has averaged at 5 481MW, accounting for 11.67% of total generation capacity, albeit representing a slight decrease from the previous week.
Year-to-date, the EAF has observed a noticeable upward trend, reaching 58.47%. However, this remains below the 61.19% recorded during the same period last year, primarily due to an increase in unplanned maintenance of 2.1%.
Furthermore, Eskom's financial commitment to fuel for the OCGT fleet has risen to approximately R4.76 billion, generating 810.24GWh, in contrast to 442.65GWh from the previous year; still within the budget for the current financial year.
As the utility now faces the winter months, Eskom has issued a strong reminder urging the public to refrain from illegal connections and energy theft. Such practices lead to transformer overloads and significant equipment failures, jeopardising the stability of the electricity network.
Citizens are encouraged to solely purchase electricity from Eskom-accredited vendors and report any illegal activities impacting Eskom's infrastructure to the Crime Line.
In the spirit of energy efficiency, Eskom urged consumers to manage their electricity consumption wisely this winter, employing tools like the Eskom Residential Calculator to track and optimise usage effectively.
Eskom plans to provide another update on the situation by Friday, 4 July 2025, or earlier should any significant changes arise.
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