10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday including the Fed meeting and Meta
The Club's 10 things to watch Wednesday, June 18 — Today's newsletter was written by Zev Fima, the Investing Club's portfolio analyst 1. We're on pace for a slightly higher open this morning as investors monitor the latest in the Israel-Iran conflict and gear up for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference this afternoon. As we wrote in a piece for Club members, we want to hear Powell's thoughts on the health of the U.S. consumer. 2. Initial jobless claims for last week came in basically in line at 245,000, just 1,000 below the Dow Jones consensus estimate. Recurring claims ticked lower, but were still elevated at 1.945 million. Conditions in the labor market will be another big topic for Powell. 3. Housing starts and building permits missed expectations this morning, the latest sign of subdued activity in the housing market. We discussed that in yesterday's Homestretc h in response to homebuilder Lennar's quarterly results. Housing punches above its weight in the economy. 4. Club name Meta Platforms is being super aggressive in building out its "superintelligence" team. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on a podcast that Meta offered OpenAI employees bonuses as high as $100 million to join the Instagram parent. 5. There's a new Street high on Oracle : Guggenheim upped its price target to $250 a share from $220 and analysts maintained the stock as their best idea. Oracle's earnings report last week showed the AI trade was alive and well. 6. Barclays raised its price target on Club name Honeywell to $258 a share from $243 and reiterated its overweight buy rating on the stock after meeting with the aerospace unit's management team. Analysts believe Honeywell has "turned the corner on negative Street estimate revision momentum," and that the aerospace business warrants a higher multiple post-spin. 7. Wells Fargo had its price target lifted at Raymond James to $84 a share from $78. The analysts, who kept their "strong buy" rating on the Club stock, cited the asset cap removal as a material mid-to-long-term positive. They said estimates will rise as the financial benefits of the removal are realized. 8. Regulators are looking to reduce capital buffer requirements at major U.S. banks, Bloomberg News reported . The move would adjust what is referred to as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, and essentially would make it easier for banks to buy U.S. government bonds during periods of volatility. 9. Morgan Stanley estimated that Salesforce's product price hikes, which we covered in yesterday's Homestretch, could add up to $1 billion in additional revenue over the next two years and get topline growth back into the double-digits. The firm maintained its overweight buy rating and price target of $404. 10. Shares of Nucor are on the rise this morning after the steelmaker preannounced strong earnings guidance for its second quarter ending July 5. Management forecasted earnings per share of $2.55 to $2.65, ahead of the $2.36 estimate. We're keeping a close eye on the steel industry given the higher tariffs on imports. Sign up for my Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free (See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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Trump Says Iran Missed Chance of Deal, Stays Vague on US Strike
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump said Iran squandered the chance to make a deal over its nuclear enrichment, but declined to say whether the US plans to join Israel's offensive aimed at destroying the program. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads How E-Scooters Conquered (Most of) Europe Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown 'I may do it. I may not do it,' Trump told reporters Wednesday at the White House when asked if he is moving closer to bombing Iran. 'I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do.' Iran had been in negotiations with the US over its nuclear program for weeks, and had a further meeting scheduled, when Israel attacked Friday. The two Mideast nations have since traded missile strikes and escalating rhetoric — Israeli leaders threatening to topple the Islamic Republic, and their Iranian counterparts vowing defiance and retaliation — while the Trump administration weighs how deeply to get involved in its ally's war. Trump's ambiguous comments add a new layer of tension to the deepening Israel-Iran clash. The president, who has campaigned for a decade in opposition to American wars in the Middle East, also faces a tense divide among his supporters over whether the US should enter the fray. America has so far limited its participation to helping Israel defend itself against Iranian missile and drone launches. Trump said he encouraged Benjamin Netanyahu in a call Tuesday to 'keep going' with his offensive operations, adding that he gave the Israeli premier no indication that US forces would participate in the attacks. But the US is seen as being able to provide military firepower necessary to destroy Iran's underground enrichment facility at Fordow, which analysts say Israel is unable to do alone. Iran has warned it can hit American bases across the region, where tens of thousands of troops are stationed, if the US joins the Israeli attack. Trump didn't close the door to a resumption of nuclear talks — he said Iran had sought a meeting, a claim Tehran disputed — but downplayed the likelihood they would bear fruit. 'I said it's very late to be talking,' the president said. 'There's a big difference between now and a week ago.' The comments were Trump's first substantive remarks since meeting Tuesday with his National Security Council, where the US's options were discussed. He spoke to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House, where workers were installing a giant flagpole outside the executive mansion's diplomatic entrance. Hours earlier he'd demanded 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER' from Iran in a social media post. Since Israel's strikes started, Iran has fired 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel, killing 24 people and injuring more than 800, according to the Israeli government. At least 224 Iranians have been killed by Israel's attacks. Iran has hit targets including a key oil refinery in the port of Haifa that was forced to shut down. 'The Americans should know that the Iranian nation is not one to surrender,' Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement published on his official website Wednesday. 'Any military incursion by the United States will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage.' Out of Patience 'Good luck,' Trump said when asked for his response. 'We cannot let Iran get a nuclear weapon. I've been saying it for a long time. I mean it more now than I ever mentioned.' Dennis Ross, who served as President Bill Clinton's Middle East envoy and just returned from a trip to the region, said the Iranian regime is likely looking for an off-ramp from the current conflict despite the bellicose comments from Khamenei. Its top priority is survival, followed by avoiding a direct conflict with the US, said Ross, who's now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 'When they feel profoundly threatened, they will make concessions. They certainly feel vulnerable and threatened right now.' Iran's missile and drone launches against Israel appeared to be subsiding Wednesday evening, although the reason wasn't immediately clear. While the Israeli army earlier said it had destroyed around one-third of Iran's missile launchers, Tehran still possesses thousands of ballistic missiles that can reach Israel, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said Monday. Trump said the Iranian government had contacted the US about the conflict and even proposed a White House meeting to settle the matter, yet he said his patience with the Islamic Republic had 'already run out.' Iran's mission to the United Nations denied that claim in an X post Wednesday, saying 'No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House.' The question of whether to strike Iran has the potential to cause domestic political headaches for Trump, whose base is split between isolationists and traditional conservative interventionists. Supporters of both political parties oppose the US joining Israel's attack on Iran by clear majorities, a YouGov survey found. Trump said his bottom line remains that 'Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon' and 'it's not a question of anything else.' During his first term, Trump withdrew from an agreement aimed at curtailing Iran's atomic program, which the US and other world powers had spent years negotiating. Republican hawks have been supportive of military action against Iran, but Trump has faced pressure from some of his isolationist supporters to take a more measured approach. 'We have all been very vocal for days now urging, 'Let's be America First. Let's stay out,' Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said Tuesday on CNN. During a breakfast Wednesday hosted by the Christian Science Monitor, longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon said Trump's supporters want him to focus on issues most important to his base, like cracking down on immigration. But Bannon said that if the president has more information that backs the case for intervention 'and makes that case to the American people, the MAGA movement will support President Trump.' Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, declined to answer directly whether Trump had asked the Pentagon to provide options for striking Iran. Hegseth said that 'maximum force protection at all times is being maintained' for US troops stationed in the region, and said that 'the president has options and is informed of what those options might be, and what the ramifications of those options might be.' The US has continued building its military presence in the region. The USS Ford carrier strike group is set to depart next week on a regularly scheduled deployment, initially in the European theater, according to a US official. Meanwhile, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said the location of Iran's near-bomb-grade stockpile of enriched uranium cannot currently be verified. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Wednesday the whereabouts of the material are now unclear, given Tehran warned him the stockpile could be moved in the event of an Israeli attack. 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How much could US gas prices rise amid Israel-Iran conflict?
U.S. oil prices hovered near a five-month high on Wednesday as President Donald Trump weighed direct involvement in support of Israeli strikes on Iran, making it all but certain that gasoline prices would rise for Americans within days, industry analysts told ABC News. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures price -- a key measure of U.S. oil prices -- has surged more than 20% in June as tensions between Iran and Israel have boiled over into an exchange of missile strikes. The back-and-forth strikes stoked concern among investors about a possible wider conflict across the Middle East, which accounts for a large share of global oil production. MORE: Israel strikes live updates: Iran launches dozens of missiles toward Israel The jump in oil prices threatens to raise the price of gasoline for U.S. drivers ahead of a busy travel period over the 4th of July holiday. If oil prices remain at elevated levels, gasoline prices will likely rise modestly over the coming weeks, experts said. A much more severe price spike could result, however, in the event of an escalation that ensnares nearby oil-shipping routes or draws in neighboring countries, they added. The national average price of a gallon of gas stands at $3.19 per gallon, which marks a 7 cent increase over the past week, Patrick de Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said on Wednesday in a post on X. Gas prices have climbed in 49 of 50 U.S. states over the past week, with the exception of California, which experienced price relief due in part to the resolution of issues facing some of its refineries, de Haan said. The average national price of a gallon of gas will likely climb as high as $3.40, which would amount to an additional 6% increase, de Haan said. MORE: Israel strikes dozens of targets in Iran, including nuclear program: IDF Such a price increase could prove short-lived, Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said last week in a note to investors. Joswick pointed to tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran last October, which caused oil prices to spike before a cooldown when both sides opted against escalation. "When Iran-Israel exchanged attacks last time, prices spiked, then fell once clear, not escalating and had no impact on oil supply," Joswick said. Aerial attacks between Israel and Iran continued overnight into Wednesday, marking a sixth day of strikes following Israel's Friday attack. That surprise operation hit at the heart of Iran's nuclear program, striking key facilities and killing several nuclear scientists as well as high-ranking military leaders, according to Israeli officials. The U.S. did not provide any military assistance or have any involvement in Israel's Friday strike, a U.S. official told ABC News. President Donald Trump told ABC News on Sunday, "It's possible we could get involved." A further escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran could send oil and gas prices significantly higher, said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston. While sanctions have constrained Iranian oil output in recent years, the nation accounts for about 3% of global oil output, Krishnamoorti said. Iran also asserts control over the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a trading route that facilitates the transport of about 20% of global oil supply. Oil prices could surge from a current level of about $73 per barrel up to $120 per barrel if the Israel-Iran conflict damages Iranian oil infrastructure or impedes the passage of some oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Krishnamoorti said. That scenario would amount to a more than 60% surge in oil prices, Krishnamoorti added, resulting in a proportionate hike for gas prices. The average price of a gallon of gas would climb above $5. "If we see any throttling back of the Strait of Hormuz, we'll see a massive increase in the price of oil, and that will impact everything in the U.S.," Krishnamoorti said. MORE: Oil prices surge and stocks slump after Israel attack on Iran That forecast of a potential price spike for oil matched a prediction from asset management firm Lazard, which warned on Friday of a possible escalation involving "strikes on Gulf energy installations or attempts to temporarily close the Strait of Hormuz." Such a scenario would trigger "price increases upwards of $120 per barrel," Lazard said in a memo to investors. The ultimate outcome remains unclear, Krishnamoorti said, noting the scale of price increases would depend on the extent of escalation. "We may have just seen the tip of the iceberg in terms of price hikes," Krishnamoorti said. But, he added, "If oil prices continue at this level, it'll be a small bump for gasoline." ABC News' Riley Hoffman, Leah Sarnoff, Jack Moore, Jon Haworth, and Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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30 minutes ago
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SoftBank Just Cashed Out $4.8B -- Here's Where Masayoshi Son Is Putting the Money Next
SoftBank (SFTBF) has just raised $4.8 billion by selling 21.5 million shares of T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) at $224 apiece pricing at the low end of the $224$228 range and marking a 3% discount to Monday's close. It's the biggest U.S. block trade since TD Bank's $13.1 billion Schwab selloff earlier this year. T-Mobile shares dropped 3.8% in early trading, while SoftBank's U.S.-listed shares nudged up about 1%. The stake sold accounts for roughly 1.9% of T-Mobile's outstanding shares, trimming down SoftBank's holdings from 85.4 million as of March 31. Bank of America was the sole bookrunner on the deal. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with TMUS. This isn't just portfolio trimming it's Masayoshi Son playing long ball in AI. The SoftBank founder is reportedly eyeing up to $30 billion in OpenAI and helping bankroll Stargate, a global hyperscale data center project that could exceed $500 billion. Originally planned as a debt-heavy venture, the financing hit snags due to U.S. tariff uncertainties. Bloomberg Intelligence suggests this recent sale could shave 12 percentage points off SoftBank's loan-to-value ratio. But with Son potentially targeting $40 billion across OpenAI, Stargate, and a possible Ampere Computing deal, analysts believe SoftBank may need to raise another $10 billion to avoid slipping past a 30% LTV downgrade trigger. SoftBank originally acquired the T-Mobile stake in 2020 through the $26.5 billion Sprint merger, then sold down significantly to fund a record stock buyback that same year. While Deutsche Telekom remains T-Mobile's largest shareholder at 59% including shares SoftBank has pledged to vote under its direction this latest exit signals another chapter in Son's playbook: recycle old wins to fund new bets. If the Stargate project and OpenAI partnership materialize as planned, this might be just the opening act in SoftBank's next AI supercycle. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
