How much does LSU football need to beat Clemson in week one? Is it a must win?
This will mark LSU's sixth consecutive kickoff vs. a Power Four program. LSU has come up short in the previous five openers, a stretch dating back to 2020. LSU enters every season with expectations. It's rarely national championship or bust, but LSU expects to compete for a playoff spot on an annual basis.
Over the last five years, that preseason optimism has quickly faded to something else as 0-1 starts have been the norm.
And now, as LSU prepares to go on the road and face a Clemson team loaded with potential All-Americans and first-round picks, there's fear that a familiar story could unfold.
It begs the question: Is LSU's week one game at Clemson a must-win?
Let's start with the playoff implications. Starting 1-0 with a win over a top-right team gives LSU a signature before the calendar hits week two. That's a big deal when you look at how the rest of LSU's schedule shapes up. It's a typical SEC grind that includes meetings with Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, and Ole Miss. Two of those contests are on the road.
In all likelihood, LSU isn't going 4-0 against that bunch of teams. A win vs. Clemson allows LSU to take another loss and remain near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. Especially if Clemson goes on to be as good as many predict.
LSU hasn't gotten the luxury of that margin for error in recent years. Week one losses forced LSU to play the rest of September with a cloud over its head. Every game suddenly became a must-win game. It's hard to play with that type of pressure every week. If LSU can pull off a week one win, we might see a Tigers team that looks much more comfortable the rest of the way.
Aside from playoff implications, there's the narrative.
If Brian Kelly drops another season opener, there will be rumblings about his job security. Fair or not. I tend to think he's a good coach and one game shouldn't define his 2025 season, but talk will persist nonetheless.
Kelly knows that, and he's embraced the pressure of week one this offseason. The entire LSU team has. Beating Clemson has been the sole goal of LSU's offseason preparations.
In the era of the 12-team playoff, it's hard to call a week one game a must-win. A team with LSU's schedule can go 9-3 and remain in the playoff discussion. And if LSU goes 10-2, the Tigers are practically a lock.
At the same time, the magnitude of this game can't be understated. LSU is riding into the 2025 season with a wealth of momentum, and another 0-1 star will let the air out of that balloon.
Clemson isn't a true must-win for LSU -- but it's the next closest thing.
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