Mixed Yield For Bond Market As Tariffs Clash With Growth Outlook

BusinessToday

5 days ago

Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and Government Investment Issues (GII) experienced mixed yield movements this week, as global trade tensions offset positive domestic economic signals. The market showed a cautious tone, with yields fluctuating across the curve in a narrow range.
The benchmark 10-year MGS yield saw a slight increase of 1.1 basis points (bps) to close at 3.383%, while the 10-year GII edged up by 0.3 bps to reach 3.415%.
Key Drivers: Trade Tensions vs. Domestic Confidence
A primary factor contributing to the upward pressure on yields was a proposal by President Donald Trump to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductors, which dampened market sentiment. This was compounded by escalating trade tensions between the United States and India, prompting a general sense of caution among investors.
However, these external pressures were largely counterbalanced by strong domestic performance. Investors were encouraged by robust local macroeconomic data and clearer signals regarding the government's fiscal reform agenda. The recent announcement of the 13th Malaysia Plan also provided a boost to confidence, reinforcing a positive long-term outlook for the Malaysian economy.
Outlook: Rangebound Yields Expected
Looking ahead, market participants expect yields to remain largely rangebound in the coming week. The market will be closely monitoring key economic data releases from both Malaysia and the United States.
Domestically, steady June retail trade data has already contributed to a bullish outlook. Investors are now awaiting the upcoming 2Q25 GDP and labor market prints, which, if they exceed expectations, could further support a positive view. However, lingering uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook and ongoing risks from potential semiconductor tariffs may limit any significant yield compression in the near term.