Confidence grows that Tropical Storm Erin will turn north near Caribbean
The National Hurricane Center's Wednesday morning forecast track now shows a tilt north on Monday, a move that — for now — keeps Puerto Rico and some of the eastern Caribbean islands directly out of the cone of uncertainty.
However, forecasters warned, it's still early days for Tropical Storm Erin and things could change.
'Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm,' the hurricane center said in its Wednesday morning discussion.
As of Wednesday morning, Erin was still a small, relatively disorganized storm. In about two more days, it's expected to enter a patch of ocean that is far more favorable for strengthening, including warmer sea surface temperatures, and develop into a hurricane.
By Sunday, forecasters predict that Erin could reach sustained windspeeds of 115 mph — a Category 3 major hurricane.
Overnight, long-range computer models continued to consolidate on a track for Erin that includes a northern turn, meaning that fewer and fewer of the predictions includes a stray track that runs over Florida.
'It remains too early to tell what if any impacts are possible in the Bahamas and USA, but while the threat appears to be decreasing, we never want to completely discount a storm in this location until it has passed us by. We never want to be surprised in hurricane season,' Craig Setzer, meteorologist for Royal Caribbean Group, posted on X.
The hurricane center is also watching two other disturbances, one near Nova Scotia with zero chance of strengthening and another south of the Yucatan Peninsula with a low chance of developing — 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next week.
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Indianapolis Star
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- Indianapolis Star
When will Tropical Storm Erin strengthen into a hurricane? See path tracker
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2 hours ago
Caribbean officials warn of heavy rains and big waves as Tropical Storm Erin nears
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Associated Press
3 hours ago
- Associated Press
Caribbean officials warn of heavy rains and big waves as Tropical Storm Erin nears
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Officials in the northern Caribbean warned Thursday of heavy rains and dangerous swells as Tropical Storm Erin approached the region. The storm is expected to remain over open waters and move north-northeast of islands including Antigua and Barbuda, the U.S. British and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Erin is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday and strengthen into a Category 3 storm by early Sunday, which would mark the first major storm this season. Tropical-storm force winds could occur in parts of the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend, forecasters said. 'There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range,' the hurricane center said. Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said nearly all models have Erin turning 'safely east of the broader U.S. next week.' Erin is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Forecasters are expecting another unusually busy season for the Atlantic, with predictions calling for six to 10 hurricanes, with up to half reaching major status.
