Latest news with #CraigSetzer
Miami Herald
a day ago
- Climate
- Miami Herald
Confidence grows that Tropical Storm Erin will turn north near Caribbean
There is growing confidence that Tropical Storm Erin will curve north early next week as it approaches the Caribbean and U.S. East Coast, potentially sparing those areas the worst impacts of what could be a powerful storm. The National Hurricane Center's Wednesday morning forecast track now shows a tilt north on Monday, a move that — for now — keeps Puerto Rico and some of the eastern Caribbean islands directly out of the cone of uncertainty. However, forecasters warned, it's still early days for Tropical Storm Erin and things could change. 'Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm,' the hurricane center said in its Wednesday morning discussion. As of Wednesday morning, Erin was still a small, relatively disorganized storm. In about two more days, it's expected to enter a patch of ocean that is far more favorable for strengthening, including warmer sea surface temperatures, and develop into a hurricane. By Sunday, forecasters predict that Erin could reach sustained windspeeds of 115 mph — a Category 3 major hurricane. Overnight, long-range computer models continued to consolidate on a track for Erin that includes a northern turn, meaning that fewer and fewer of the predictions includes a stray track that runs over Florida. 'It remains too early to tell what if any impacts are possible in the Bahamas and USA, but while the threat appears to be decreasing, we never want to completely discount a storm in this location until it has passed us by. We never want to be surprised in hurricane season,' Craig Setzer, meteorologist for Royal Caribbean Group, posted on X. The hurricane center is also watching two other disturbances, one near Nova Scotia with zero chance of strengthening and another south of the Yucatan Peninsula with a low chance of developing — 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next week.
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Miami Herald
3 days ago
- Climate
- Miami Herald
A tropical depression is likely to form in the Atlantic. It's worth watching
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the Atlantic as soon as Monday, and it's one that forecasters say bears watching — especially for the Caribbean and Florida. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 90% chance of developing in the next two or seven days, as of Monday's 8 a.m. update, and conditions appear ripe for this disturbance to grow into the season's first hurricane.. The next name on the storm list is Erin. The system is very far from the U.S. or the Caribbean, thousands of miles away. If it does develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, it wouldn't reach American shores until sometime mid to late next week, on average. It could reach the Caribbean sooner. 'For the system to directly threaten Florida it would have to move nearly straight west for days & days. The odds of that are low but not zero,' Craig Setzer, meteorologist for Royal Caribbean Group, posted on X Monday. For now, long-range computer models appear split on the fate of the disturbance. Nearly all of them show it moving steadily west and gaining steam for the next few days, but then they split. Many curve the would-be storm north, toward Bermuda and away from the Caribbean. Others show a stronger storm continuing due west and headed toward the Caribbean and U.S. 'The Bahamas and East Coast should continue to keep an eye on things in case it takes the left edge of the ensemble suite,' Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, posted X Monday. The hurricane center is also watching two other disturbances in the central and northwestern Atlantic. Both have just a 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days. Neither pose a threat to land anytime soon.
