.png&w=3840&q=100)
A tropical depression is likely to form in the Atlantic. It's worth watching
The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 90% chance of developing in the next two or seven days, as of Monday's 8 a.m. update, and conditions appear ripe for this disturbance to grow into the season's first hurricane..
The next name on the storm list is Erin.
The system is very far from the U.S. or the Caribbean, thousands of miles away. If it does develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, it wouldn't reach American shores until sometime mid to late next week, on average. It could reach the Caribbean sooner.
'For the system to directly threaten Florida it would have to move nearly straight west for days & days. The odds of that are low but not zero,' Craig Setzer, meteorologist for Royal Caribbean Group, posted on X Monday.
For now, long-range computer models appear split on the fate of the disturbance. Nearly all of them show it moving steadily west and gaining steam for the next few days, but then they split. Many curve the would-be storm north, toward Bermuda and away from the Caribbean. Others show a stronger storm continuing due west and headed toward the Caribbean and U.S.
'The Bahamas and East Coast should continue to keep an eye on things in case it takes the left edge of the ensemble suite,' Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, posted X Monday.
The hurricane center is also watching two other disturbances in the central and northwestern Atlantic. Both have just a 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days. Neither pose a threat to land anytime soon.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Newsweek
21 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Meteorologists Reveal Chances of Tropical Storm Erin Impacting US
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. There is a 30 percent probability that Tropical Storm Erin will directly impact the United States next week as it nears the East Coast, according to an updated forecast from AccuWeather emailed to reporters on Wednesday. Why It Matters Tropical Storm Erin formed on Monday and continues to march westward across the Atlantic. It is expected to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season later this week, with National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologists warning that it could strengthen further into a major hurricane by late this coming weekend. As of Wednesday afternoon, the storm had maximum sustained wind speeds of 45 miles per hour. What To Know Earlier this week, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that the chances of Tropical Storm Erin bringing direct impacts to the U.S. East Coast have increased slightly as its path has shifted more to the south than originally forecast. "Based on current conditions, forecast atmospheric patterns for the next week, and historical hurricane tracks for this time of year, AccuWeather estimates a 70 percent probability that Erin will not directly impact the U.S. East Coast at this time," DaSilva said in the email on Wednesday. A forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Erin's path toward the U.S. A forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Erin's path toward the U.S. National Hurricane Center On Wednesday, DaSilva told Newsweek that the 30 percent chance of impacts in the U.S. doesn't mean Erin will make landfall on the East Coast. Rather, the storm will draw near enough to the U.S. to bring rain and wind impacts onshore. Even if it doesn't unleash rain and wind on the U.S., Erin will bring dangerous impacts to East Coast beaches by causing big waves and rip currents. "Families heading to Atlantic beaches this weekend and next week for a late-summer vacation need to be careful," DaSilva said in the AccuWeather email. "Rip currents can be deadly. More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year." The NHC also expressed uncertainty about Erin's U.S. impacts in its most recent key message about the storm on Wednesday morning. "Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands," a key message for the storm said. "However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week." What People Are Saying Meteorologist Max Velocity in a post on X on Wednesday: "NORTHERN TURN now highlighted in the latest advisory cone for Tropical Storm Erin, however US impacts are still not completely ruled out." The National Hurricane Center, in a public advisory about Tropical Storm Erin: "Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office." What Happens Next Meteorologists will continue monitoring the storm closely as it progresses. Regardless of landfall, people in hurricane-prone areas are urged to prepare for such a storm now, before the peak of hurricane season hits in September.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin path shifts, but still forecast to grow into major hurricane, NHC says
ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Erin on Wednesday continued to push west through the Atlantic with it forecast to become the season's first hurricane, growing to major hurricane strength by Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of the NHC's 11 a.m. Eastern time update, the center of Erin was located about 1,300 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean moving west at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 60 miles. 'On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend,' said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch. 'Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.' The cone of uncertainty shifted back to the north slightly since Tuesday with the northwest Caribbean islands less likely in the storm's direct path. While there are no watches or warnings in place, the NHC advised the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to monitor Erin's progress. Swells from the storm will begin to hit the islands by the weekend with dangerous rip current conditions. 'Erin has not been able to strengthen significantly for the past couple of days, likely due to marginal sea surface temperatures, and a relatively dry mid- to lower-tropospheric air mass,' Pasch said. 'However, it is expected that the system's environment will gradually become more conducive for intensification over the next 48 hours.' The forecast from the NHC has Erin intensifying into what would be the season's first hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds by early Thursday, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds and gusts of 140 mph by Sunday morning with the cone of uncertainty encompassing a wide swath in the Atlantic that is just north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Winds could potentially be felt in the islands beginning Friday. 'Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands,' the NHC stated in its key messages for the storm. 'However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.' The impacts on the U.S., Bahamas and Bermuda also remain uncertain. As of 8 a.m., the NHC also was tracking a tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms that could develop after it emerges from the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, forecasters said. 'This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase in organization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph,' forecasters said. The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven. After Erin, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand. A second system that NHC had been tracking in the northwestern Atlantic off the coast of Nova Scotia had its chances for development dropped to 0%. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its season forecast now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30. -----------
Miami Herald
3 hours ago
- Miami Herald
Tropical Storm Erin path shifts, but still forecast to grow into major hurricane, NHC says
ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Erin on Wednesday continued to push west through the Atlantic with it forecast to become the season's first hurricane, growing to major hurricane strength by the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of the NHC's 5 a.m. update, the center of Erin was located about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean moving west at 20 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 60 miles. "On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch. "Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday." The cone of uncertainty shifted back to the north slightly since Tuesday with the northwest Caribbean islands less likely in the storm's direct path. While there are no watches or warnings in place, the NHC advised the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to monitor Erin's progress. Swells from the storm will begin to hit the islands by the weekend with dangerous rip current conditions. "Erin has not been able to strengthen significantly for the past couple of days, likely due to marginal sea surface temperatures, and a relatively dry mid- to lower-tropospheric air mass," Pasch said. "However, it is expected that the system's environment will gradually become more conducive for intensification over the next 48 hours." The forecast from the NHC has Erin intensifying into what would be the season's first hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds by early Thursday, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds and gusts of 140 mph by Sunday morning with the cone of uncertainty encompassing a wide swath in the Atlantic that is just north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Winds could potentially be felt in the islands beginning Friday. "Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce someimpacts on those islands," the NHC stated in its key messages for the storm. "However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm." The impacts on the U.S., Bahamas and Bermuda also remain uncertain. As of 8 a.m., the NHC also was tracking a tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms that could develop after it emerges from the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, forecasters said. "This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no significant increase inorganization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while thesystem moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph," forecasters said. The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven. After Erin, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand. A second system that NHC had been tracking in the northwestern Atlantic off the coast of Nova Scotia had its chances for development dropped to 0% The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its season forecast now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30. ----------- Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
