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Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Climate
- Miami Herald
A tropical depression is likely to form in the Atlantic. It's worth watching
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the Atlantic as soon as Monday, and it's one that forecasters say bears watching — especially for the Caribbean and Florida. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 90% chance of developing in the next two or seven days, as of Monday's 8 a.m. update, and conditions appear ripe for this disturbance to grow into the season's first hurricane.. The next name on the storm list is Erin. The system is very far from the U.S. or the Caribbean, thousands of miles away. If it does develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, it wouldn't reach American shores until sometime mid to late next week, on average. It could reach the Caribbean sooner. 'For the system to directly threaten Florida it would have to move nearly straight west for days & days. The odds of that are low but not zero,' Craig Setzer, meteorologist for Royal Caribbean Group, posted on X Monday. For now, long-range computer models appear split on the fate of the disturbance. Nearly all of them show it moving steadily west and gaining steam for the next few days, but then they split. Many curve the would-be storm north, toward Bermuda and away from the Caribbean. Others show a stronger storm continuing due west and headed toward the Caribbean and U.S. 'The Bahamas and East Coast should continue to keep an eye on things in case it takes the left edge of the ensemble suite,' Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, posted X Monday. The hurricane center is also watching two other disturbances in the central and northwestern Atlantic. Both have just a 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days. Neither pose a threat to land anytime soon.
USA Today
2 days ago
- Climate
- USA Today
Hurricane forecasters eye 'significant tropical threat' in the Atlantic: What to know
Hurricane forecasters were eyeing two developing tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean Aug. 10 – one of which could pose an eventual risk to the United States. Hurricane forecasters were eyeing two developing tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean Aug. 10 – one of which could pose an eventual risk to the United States – while Tropical Storms Henriette and Ivo spin far from land in the Pacific Ocean. In the central Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said a tropical wave had a 20% chance of formation within the next seven days. "Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days due to surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is possible during the middle part of this week while the system moves northward over the central Atlantic," the hurricane center said. Most computer models show this system heading north in the Atlantic, away from any land areas, as seen with the yellow x in the map below. Watching for a tropical depression Of more potential concern to the United States, the hurricane center was also watching a separate tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, dubbed Invest 97L. Officials gave that an 80% chance of forming within the next seven days. (Looking for the location? It's the red x in the map above.) "This is by far the healthiest looking tropical wave we've seen off Africa this summer," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza on Aug. 10 in a Substack post. Meanwhile, the hurricane center warned that "environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving ... across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic." "Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday (Aug. 10 and 11) across the Cabo Verde Islands," the hurricane center said. 'First significant tropical threat of the season' University of Miami meteorologist Andy Hazelton, writing on X on the morning of Aug. 10, said there was "still a lot of uncertainty in the long term track" of this system. Some computer models said it would take a quick recurve east of Bermuda, while others said it will take a trek into the Bahamas. "Any development could bring impacts for a large swath from the Caribbean to the United States East Coast," AccuWeather warned, adding that coastal and travel interests in the Caribbean, as well as the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, are advised to monitor the situation closely, as it may pose the first significant tropical threat of the season. Lanza agreed, nothing that "folks from Florida and the Bahamas up the East Coast into Atlantic Canada and Bermuda should still be monitoring this system." The next names on the list for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season are Erin, Fernand and Gabrielle. Models for Invest 97L Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. Henriette and Ivo spin in the Pacific While the Atlantic continues to bubble with potential activity, the Pacific has already endured an active season with nine named storms so far. This includes Tropical Storms Henriette and Ivo, which both continued to spin in the Pacific Aug. 10. Though Henriette is passing near Hawaii, little impact is expected from the storm on the island chain other than an uptick in humidity, the National Weather Service in Honolulu said. Henriette is expected to continue moving northwest away from Hawaii over the next several days. It is not expected to reach hurricane strength. Though expected to weaken to a remnant low by later Aug. 10, swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so, the hurricane center said. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions." When is the peak of hurricane season? The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the hurricane center. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends. Contributing: John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network
Yahoo
02-08-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
A key sign of hurricane activity has flipped into high gear
Hurricanes need warm ocean water to form, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are really starting to warm up. "One of the biggest changes I've observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of the so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above its seasonal averages," WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry said in late July on a Substack post. That's a big change from earlier this season. "To open the hurricane season in June, waters across this bellwether part of the Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average," he said. The Main Development Region (MDR), located between the Caribbean and Africa, is a region in the Atlantic where many tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) form. This area is key because it's where many tropical waves, which can develop into hurricanes, originally form. The warm water in that key region is just one of the reasons hurricane forecasters are warning that hurricane season could soon heat up. Warm water everywhere It's not only the Main Development Region that's warm: Water across the Gulf of America (formerly known as Gulf of Mexico) and the Caribbean Sea area also above average, scientists said. In fact, closer to home, persistent high pressure has led to some notable warming of the shelf waters around Florida, as well as the nearby southwest Atlantic, Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, pointed out on X on August 1. This included a 90-degree reading at a buoy near Virginia Key, Florida, near Miami. "Water temperatures are pretty much warm enough everywhere in the tropical Atlantic to support hurricane formation," Colorado State Univerisity meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY July 31. "The general consensus is that a temperature of 26.5°C (79 degrees F) is required to get a hurricane to form," he said. University of Miami tropical researcher Brian McNoldy confirmed this, telling USA TODAY in an email August 1 that "looking at sea surface temperature, it's above the commonly-used 26°C isotherm everywhere of interest, so that ingredient is in place from Africa to the Caribbean to the Gulf." So why no hurricanes? So if ocean temperatures across the Atlantic are plenty toasty for hurricanes to form… what's preventing them from forming? "One of the biggest disruptors of the Atlantic hurricane season so far has been unfavorable upper-level winds," Klotzbach told USA TODAY. "Atlantic vertical wind shear is generally westerly. We've had a lot of upper-level westerly winds over the past few weeks, increasing vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region." Wind shear, a change in wind speed with height, is a hurricane killer, the National Weather Service said in an online report. "Strong upper level winds destroy the storms' structure by displacing the warm temperatures above the eye and limiting the vertical accent of air parcels. Hurricanes will not form when the upper level winds are too strong." Shear might be diminishing, though However, the upper-level wind anomalies are likely to flip to easterly in early August, resulting in reduced vertical wind shear and creating conditions much more favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity, Klotzbach said. He said this flip is associated with an eastward-moving Madden-Julian Oscillation, a global climate pattern that affects hurricane formation. "Phases 1-3 of the Madden-Julian Oscillation are the ones that are most favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity, and we should be headed into these phases shortly per the latest long-range forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts," he said. "So, while things are quiet at the moment (and likely to remain quiet for the next few days), there are signs that things will pick up in about 10 days." Hazelton agreed with this, noting that on X that "shear has already been coming down, and looks to drop even further as the Madden-Julian Oscillation moves over Africa. The Week 2 look on ensembles is about as favorable as you will ever see upper winds in the basin this time of year." "Still, shear is just one part of the equation, and this time of year, moisture and stability can hold things back and prevent development even with low shear. Those issues seem prevalent already this year," Hazelton cautioned. "It will be interesting to see how August goes tropical-cyclone-wise in the Atlantic." This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: A key sign of hurricane activity heats up for August
Boston Globe
31-07-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
The tropics seem sluggish, but could August bring the first hurricane of the 2025 season?
On average, 86 percent of all named tropical systems in the Atlantic occur after Aug. 1, and the first hurricane doesn't form until Aug. 11. Boston Globe We're still a ways away from reaching peak heating of sea-surface temperatures, and a steep warming trend may be setting the stage for an explosive August in terms of hurricanes, especially since the Main Development Region — a vast stretch of the Atlantic from the west coast of Northern Africa to the Caribbean islands — has experienced an increase in temperatures over the last several weeks. Should temperatures continue to rise and wind shear be average or lower, then we could be in for an incredibly active August and September. Hurricane season typically peaks around Sept. 10. Advertisement Tracking the development of storm development, the Main Development Region of the Atlantic tropics is warmer than average. NOAA/University of Arizona 'The Week 2 look on ensembles is about as favorable as you will ever see upper winds in the basin this time of year,' said Andy Hazelton, a hurricane modeling expert at the University of Miami. 'Still, shear is just one part of the equation, and this time of year, moisture and stability can hold things back and prevent development even with low shear. Those issues seem prevalent already this year.' Advertisement So far this year, the Atlantic tropics have produced three tropical storms over the past two months, and we are pacing well ahead of schedule. Although a hurricane has yet to form, that doesn't mean impacts haven't been felt. The last storm to develop, Tropical Storm Chantal on July 4, dumped flooding rain over the Carolinas, leading to flood emergencies and an estimated $4 billion in damages. Floodwaters rush over a spillway at Thagard Lake in Carthage, N.C., in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Chantal on July 7, 2025. SEAN RAYFORD/NYT The National Hurricane Center has forecast another unusually busy hurricane season, which stretches through the end of November. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin. Boston Globe Rapid intensification Just as Rapid intensification is a term that is becoming more widely used when discussing hurricane strength, naturally, because consistently warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures have provided fuel for storms to explode. To reach this feat, a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds must increase by at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours. Advertisement About 80 percent of major hurricanes undergo rapid intensification throughout development. The combination of low wind shear and plenty of hot, moist air from the warm ocean water is like flicking a match onto gasoline — the atmosphere ignites. As oceans continue to warm, the fuel source will just continue to grow more potent for storms to explode. Rapid intensification is more common than you think, especially with global warming. Climate Central And since the early 1980s, a tropical storm or hurricane is five times more likely to rapidly intensify, growing to one in three storms now likely to see an explosive build-up. That brings us to what climatology tells us and what might be coming down the pike. August sees a massive leap in rapid intensification episodes compared to July — quadrupling in number. If the chances and frequency of rapidly intensifying hurricanes keep increasing, then naturally so does the chance for landfall of such storms at higher strength. The percentage of all Atlantic rapid intensification events throughout each month in hurricane season. CSU Rapid intensifying storms make hurricane forecasting so vital, especially during the height of hurricane season, ranging from August through October, and peaking on Sept. 10. Storms that erupt near the coast dramatically decrease warning time to the public, making the need for the National Hurricane Center and expertise in tropical forecasting more important now more than ever. Have a weather question or maybe a weather topic you'd like us to cover? Let us know at weather@ or contact Weather Editor Marianne Mizera at Ken Mahan can be reached at
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Miami Herald
14-07-2025
- Climate
- Miami Herald
A brewing tropical system in North Florida prompts flood watch in South Florida
South Florida could see some street flooding Monday and Tuesday, thanks to a potential tropical system brewing near the north end of the state. The Miami office of the National Weather Service called for a flood watch — when there's a chance of flooding but it's not yet happening — for Monday afternoon and Tuesday in urban southeast Florida. 'Regardless of how the disturbance evolves, widespread 1-3' of rain are expected across South Florida between today and Thursday morning, with a reasonable worst case scenario for isolated locations of 5-7' or more,' the NWS said early Monday. The heaviest of those rains are expected Monday afternoon through late evening. The moisture sparking all that rain is attached to a low-pressure system drifting off the northeast coast of Florida this weekend. The National Hurricane Center predicts it will cross the state in the next day or so and form in the Gulf around Tuesday — potentially as a tropical depression. As of Monday morning, the NHC gave the system a 30% chance of developing in the next seven days and a 10% chance of strengthening in the next day. For now, weather models continue to show the system developing into a weak and broad depression toting plenty of rain. 'The amount of development will probably depend on how far offshore it stays,' Andy Hazelton, an associated scientist at the University of Miami, posted on X. 'I think it's worth keeping an eye on trends for this one..' A very similar setup last week led to the third named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Chantal, which came ashore in North Carolina with deadly flooding that claimed several lives. The next name on the list is Dexter.
