Gold prices offer a glittering 200% return in 6 years: Can the yellow metal continue to shower gains on investors?
From May 2019 to June 2025, gold prices in India jumped from nearly ₹ 30,000 to over ₹ 1,00,000 per 10 grams despite intermittent corrections. This shows that gold prices have given a stellar return of over 200 per cent in about six years, compared to about 120 per cent return by the Nifty 50.
Since 2015, gold has outperformed both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 most of the years.
The table below shows the year-wise return of Nifty 50 and Sensex compared to MCX Gold in percentage terms. Gold and equity returns since 2015
Gold is considered a safe-haven asset, attracting investors during periods of economic uncertainty, high inflation, and geopolitical tensions.
Over the past six years, a confluence of factors — including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, persistent inflation, slowing global economic growth, and aggressive central bank buying — have been key drivers of gold prices.
More recently, a trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies has served as an additional catalyst for gold's bullish run.
"Domestic Gold prices have shown a 200 per cent increase in the last six years. From May 2019 to June 2025, gold prices skyrocketed from ₹ 30,000 to over ₹ 1,00,000 per 10 grams," Motilal Oswal Financial Services observed.
Geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties, particularly the US President's tariff stance, will remain a key driver of gold prices. Markets have yet to fully price in the unpredictability of trade policy.
Additionally, interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks globally are likely to provide further support to gold.
Experts believe that after delivering strong returns in the first half of the year, gold appears well-positioned to extend its gains in the second half as well.
However, due to demand fatigue at higher levels, gold may see some profit booking before starting fresh uptrends. So, one may consider booking some profits at this juncture.
For investors with a medium-term investment horizon, it makes sense to buy gold on dips as prices look ripe for corrections. Experts appear to be slightly cautious for the short to medium term.
"Following our long-standing bullish stance on the yellow metal, we are now taking a cautious pause in July 2025 — without completely turning away from it," said Manav Modi, Analyst- Precious Metal Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
"While normal price fluctuations will continue, for gold prices to move beyond current all-time highs, the market requires fresh and significant catalysts. We are likely to see a period of price consolidation until the emergence of any decisive or longer-term triggers,' Modi noted.
Anuj Gupta, the director of Ya Wealth, also recommends booking some profits.
"Investors who entered gold five to six years ago may consider booking partial profits at current levels, as a short-term correction cannot be ruled out before the next leg of the rally," said Gupta.
Gupta's year-end target is $3,500–$3,700 per troy ounce, with MCX Gold expected to trade in the range of ₹ $1,00,000– ₹ $1,03,000 per 10 grams by Diwali 2025 or the end of the calendar year.
"Given the long-term bullish outlook, investors can either continue holding or exit partially and re-enter on dips. The yellow metal is poised to touch new highs over the long run," Gupta said.
Ajay Garg, the CEO and director of SMC Global Securities, underscored that with the Fed likely to cut interest rates later this year, and ongoing trade wars slowing down economies worldwide, there's a growing worry about inflation, which could support gold.
Garg further added that wars are already happening, and trade conflicts will keep pushing people to buy gold as a safe haven. Central Banks are expected to remain strong buyers of gold in 2025 as well. ETF buying is swelling too.
Garg said gold may not see a huge drop, and one should buy on dips.
"For gold, don't wait for a huge drop. The price is likely to find its own reasons to go higher. Buying gold when it dips a bit, perhaps around ₹ 96,000- ₹ 98,000 per 10 grams, would be a good move. We could even see gold hit a new record high of ₹ 1,05,000 in the second half of 2025," said Garg.
Meanwhile, the recent moderation in gold could be attributed to a shift in investor preferences to other precious metals, such as silver and platinum. This trend may persist for some time, but is unlikely to keep gold under pressure for a longer period.
"A shift in investor preferences is largely responsible for the recent sideways momentum. Investors appear to be more aggressive in silver and platinum, seeking short-term trading opportunities. Despite this change, we believe that gold's downturn appears limited, as uncertainties related to tariffs are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe haven," said Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities at HDFC Securities.
Gandhi pointed out that the worsening economic and financial conditions, which are intensifying stagflationary pressures and rising US fiscal deficit, further reinforce this perspective.
"The August 1 deadline is approaching, and so far, the US has secured fewer trade deals than Trump had previously claimed and the market had anticipated. We believe that the uncertainty and concerns surrounding the tariff rates could trigger a breakout in gold prices, leading to a rally in gold prices, as gold is viewed as the ultimate safe-haven asset during uncertain times," said Gandhi.
Read all market-related news here
Read more stories by Nishant Kumar
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Indian Express
5 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Express View on trade pacts and agriculture: Carry forward the momentum
Now that the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has been sealed, the focus shifts to the more challenging deal with the US. A major stumbling block to inking even an interim free trade agreement before US President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline — to either sign or face so-called reciprocal tariffs of up to 26 per cent — is agriculture. India does not want to open up its market for American soyabean, corn (maize), ethanol and dairy products. What this defensive stance misses is the potential loss from the fact that India's agricultural exports to the US, at $6.2 billion in 2024, exceeded its imports of $2.4 billion. A 26 per cent tariff will definitely hurt Indian seafood exports to the US that alone was valued at $2.5 billion. That loss would be a gain for the likes of Ecuador and Chile, slapped with only the 10 per cent baseline tariff. On the other hand, the fear of US farm imports is more about perception than reality. Take dairy, where the US isn't as big an exporter of milk powder, butter and cheese as New Zealand and the European Union. Or soyabean, where India imported over $5 billion worth of its oil during 2024-25. The bulk of that was from Argentina and Brazil, with the US share at just $126.3 million. The US is, no doubt, cost competitive in corn and the world's biggest producer as well as exporter. But corn is basically a feed grain, also increasingly being used as a biofuel feedstock. Allowing imports would benefit India's dairy and poultry farmers grappling with rising feed costs, aggravated by the diversion of corn for fuel ethanol production. The sheer demand growth makes corn imports by India inevitable, whether from the US or elsewhere. India needs a farm trade policy based not on import protection, but expanding and diversifying its exports. That happened during 2003-04 to 2013-14, when the country's agriculture exports soared from $7.5 billion to $43.3 billion and new markets were created in products from basmati rice and buffalo meat to frozen shrimps, guar gum meal, chilly and seed spices. Since then, exports have hardly grown to about $52 billion in 2024-25. Even worse have been shipment curbs — on rice, wheat, sugar or onion — clamped at the slightest indication of domestic supply shortfalls. CETA has been a refreshing departure, with India successfully negotiating duty-free access for its exports of seafood, processed foods, spices, fruit and vegetables to the UK, while simultaneously offering to cut tariffs on imports of whisky, chocolates, soft drinks and salmon from the latter. A similar confident approach of export proactiveness rather than import defensiveness is required in deals with other countries — the US included.
Mint
5 minutes ago
- Mint
Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on July 28
The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a muted opening on Monday, tracking mixed global market cues. The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a tepid start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,832 level, a discount of nearly 18 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. On Friday, the Indian stock market ended with sharp losses, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 24,900 level. The Sensex crashed 721.08 points, or 0.88%, to close at 81,463.09, while the Nifty 50 settled 225.10 points, or 0.90%, lower at 24,837.00. Here's what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today: Nifty 50 broke the key support level of 24,880 and formed a big bearish candle on the daily chart, signalling weakness. On the weekly scale, the Nifty 50 slipped 0.53%, highlighting a broader weakening trend. 'Nifty 50 closed below its 50-Day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time in several weeks. Meanwhile, the gap between the 9-day and 20-day EMAs has begun to widen, indicating a strengthening bearish outlook in the short term. The index also breached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the previous swing low to high, which was placed near 24,920, signaling a potential breakdown of the recent recovery attempt,' said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 40, while the MACD continues to widen its gap between the fast and slow lines. 'The earlier 'buy-on-dip' approach may now give way to a 'sell-on-rise' strategy unless the index manages to reclaim and sustain above the crucial 25,200 level, which would be necessary to revive the upward trajectory,' Mehra said. Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of noted that the Nifty 50 index has closed near the lower Bollinger Band, a support from which can push the index upside. 'The momentum indicators in today's fall have come into the oversold region, which can also push the markets upside from current levels. The index is also at a strong weekly Buy level between 24,600 - 24,800, a bounce from this level can present a strong selling opportunity near the 25,200 levels,' said Dwarakanath. According to VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, Nifty 50 crossed its 50-day EMA, which was a key technical support for short-term traders. 'Following this breach, I advise traders to adopt a sell-on-rise strategy. Investors focused on industrial sector ETFs might consider the 24,500 level as an initial entry point. Considering these factors, we can expect the Nifty 50 to gain support between 24,720 and 24,500 and meet resistance near 24,980 and 25,050,' Ambala said. Bank Nifty index declined 537.15 points, or 0.94%, to close at 56,528.90 on Friday. For the week, Bank Nifty registered a modest gain of 0.44%. 'From a technical standpoint, the weekly price action has resulted in the formation of a Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern, which typically signals indecision in the market and a potential reversal when it appears after an up-move. This pattern, coupled with the repeated failure to breach resistance, suggests caution in the near term, with the need for a strong breakout to resume upward momentum,' said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities. Going ahead, according to Shah, the zone of 57,300 - 57,400 is likely to continue to act as a crucial hurdle for the Bank Nifty index, while on the downside, the zone of 56,200 - 56,100 will act as important support as it is the confluence of the 50-day EMA and prior swing low. 'Any sustainable move below the level of 56,100 will lead to further selling pressure in the Bank Nifty index upto the level of 55,500 in the short term,' Shah said. Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group highlighted that the Bank Nifty index closed below its 21-day EMA, indicating short-term weakness. 'However, the broader trend remains positive, with the 55-day EMA holding firm near the 56,000 level and the index still trading above its ascending trendline. This suggests the current dip presents a buying opportunity. Strong support is seen at 56,000; a breach below this may lead to a decline toward 55,300. On the upside, 57,100 is the immediate resistance,' Singhania said. A breakout above this level could trigger fresh buying momentum, potentially pushing the Bank Nifty index toward 57,600 and new all-time highs, he added. Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates said that the Bank Nifty index breached its 50-DEMA support and formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting sustained selling at higher levels. 'Last week's low of Bank Nifty is placed near 56,200, which will now act as the next crucial support. Until the index decisively crosses 57,320, traders are advised to book profits on bounces and wait for a clear breakout for fresh upside momentum,' Yedve said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
5 minutes ago
- Mint
Stocks to buy under ₹100: Experts recommend four shares to buy today — 28 July 2025
Stocks to buy under ₹ 100: The Indian stock market extended its selling for the second straight session on Friday. The Nifty 50 index broke below the 50-DEMA support and finished nearly 400 points lower from the weekly high at 24,837. This marks Nifty's fourth consecutive week of losses, with a weekly decline of 0.53%. On Friday, Cipla, SBI Life, and Apollo Hospitals demonstrated strength in a broadly negative market, standing out as the Nifty's top performers. Conversely, it was a tough session for financial heavyweights, with Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance, and IndusInd Bank ending as the major losers. Trading volumes on the NSE cash market were lower by 4% compared to yesterday. Baring, Nifty Pharma and Healthcare, and all other sectoral indices ended in red. Nifty Media, PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, and Metal fell sharply, registering the steepest declines and bearing the brunt of the selling pressure. The pain was even more acute in the broader market today, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices significantly underperforming the benchmark. The Nifty Midcap 100 Index plunged 1.61%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 Index plummeted 2.10%. Market breadth remained weak for the seventh day, where declining shares surpassed advancers. The advance-decline ratio on the BSE stood at 0.40, the lowest since 19 June. On the outlook of the Indian stock market today, Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research — Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal, said, "We expect the market to remain in consolidation mode amid continued uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, a mixed Q1FY26 earnings season so far, and intensifying FII outflows. Key results over the weekend include Kotak Mahindra Bank, Macrotech Developers, and CDSL, amongst others." Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst, Angel One, said, "The chart structure has deteriorated for the bulls. On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 had been trading within a "Rising Channel" pattern since May. However, this week's breakdown below the channel's lower boundary confirms a bearish reversal. Importantly, this breakdown is accompanied by a bearish gap, which qualifies as a "Breakaway Gap", adding further conviction to the bearish setup. Additionally, the index has broken below the 50-DEMA, a level that had previously provided strong support. This shift marks a significant change in short-term momentum for the bears. On the indicator front, the RSI Smoothened has slipped below 39, a level not seen since the April swing lows, reinforcing the weakening trend. These signals suggest the potential for deeper downside, possibly towards the 200-day SMA, which lies in the 24,200–24,000 zone. For the coming week, immediate support is placed near the 89-day EMA at 24,650, followed by the 24,500 level, which has acted as a strong base during the May–June consolidation phase. On the upside, the bearish gap and the 50-DEMA zone around 24,950–25,000 now act as immediate resistance, while the 25,250 level, the high of the last two weeks, remains a stiff barrier." Asked about the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Shiju Kuthupalakkal, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, said, "The Bank Nifty index continued with the slide with a weak candle indication on the daily chart, and once again is on the way to retest the important 50-DEMA zone near the 56,000 level, which is the crucial support. The index needs to sustain the 50-DEMA zone to keep the bias intact; otherwise, it can trigger a fresh downward slide in the coming sessions. At the same time, on the upside, Parekh added that the tough resistance barrier near the 57,300 zone needs to be breached decisively to expect fresh upward movement and strengthen the trend." Regarding stocks to buy today, market experts — Vaishali Parekh, Vice President — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher; Mehul Kothari, Deputy Vice President — Technical Research at Anand Rathi; Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet; and Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment, recommended these four intraday stocks for today — Bodal Chemicals, IOB, Hazoor Multi Projects, and DCW. 1] Bodal Chemicals: Buy at ₹ 74.40, Target ₹ 78, Stop Loss ₹ 72. 2] IOB: Buy at ₹ 37 to ₹ 38, Target ₹ 42, Stop Loss ₹ 36. 3] Hazoor Multi Projects: Buy at ₹ 39.50, Targets ₹ 41.70, ₹ 42.50, Stop Loss ₹ 38.50. 4] DCW: Buy at ₹ 79, Target ₹ 85, Stop Loss ₹ 75. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
