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Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for June 2, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Geo-political tensions are once again on the rise and comments from Trump administration on EU and China are also keeping market participants on edge. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Investors face uncertainty regarding their gold investment decisions due to multiple factors affecting market sentiment. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, coupled with evolving US-China trade negotiations, have created ambiguity in the precious metals market. What is the gold rate prediction for this week and what should investors do? Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices: Gold prices slipped from a two-week high after US President Donald Trump postponed the implementation of 50% tariffs on EU imports to July 9, easing immediate trade tensions and reducing safe-haven demand. This delay came after the EU requested more time for negotiations, leading to a temporary pullback in bullion prices. However, geopolitical risks continued to support underlying demand, with Russia launching the largest aerial assault of the war on Ukraine and Israel intensifying military strikes in Gaza. Meanwhile, gold remained under pressure from a stronger US dollar, as the dollar index hovered near the 100 mark amid rising US bond yields and mixed economic data. A US trade court initially blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, only for a federal appeals court to reinstate them a day later, injecting uncertainty into markets. On the economic front, US consumer confidence came in stronger than expected at just under 100, compared to a forecast of 87.1, while core durable goods orders rose 0.2% against expectations of a 0.1% decline. However, preliminary US GDP remained in negative territory, reinforcing concerns about slowing growth. The April PCE Price Index rose 2.1% year-on-year, slightly below the 2.2% estimate, suggesting softening inflation pressures. Weekly jobless claims exceeded expectations, adding to mixed economic signals. Minutes from the Fed's May meeting revealed growing concern about the dual risk of rising inflation and unemployment, with policymakers indicating that rate cuts remain possible later this year but are not imminent. Geo-political tensions are once again on the rise and comments from President Trump's administration on EU and China are also keeping market participants on edge. Focus this week will be on US Jobs market data, manufacturing and Services PMI from major economies and Governor Powell's speech. RBI and ECB monetary policy statements will also be in radar this week. Gold Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips; Support: 94500-93500; Resistance 96500-97500 Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
19-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for May 19, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold could trade in a broad range of Rs 91,500 and Rs 95,500 this week. (AI image) Gold price prediction today : Gold is a safe haven investment but geopolitical tensions and developments in the US-China trade deal have left investors confused - should they buy, sell or hold gold? There is also the additional factor of Moody's downgrading the US credit rating. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices : Gold prices started last week steady but were on track for their steepest weekly decline in six months, primarily due to a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced concerns over the trade war. The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs, which eased tensions and lessened the risk premium that had been supporting gold. Economic data also showed weaker-than-expected inflation and retail sales in the U.S., which provided some support for gold prices. However, comments from President Trump and Federal Reserve Governor Powell triggered market volatility. Gold witnessed a brief rebound, breaching $3200 however, news regarding US and China tariff deal where both countries slashed tariffs by 115% continued to weigh on sentiment. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 23-Year-Old From Kuwait City Exposes How She Earns KWD296 A Day World of Finance Learn More Undo The 90-day tariff pause is expected to weigh on gold prices by improving investor sentiment, which diminishes demand for gold as the uncertainty surrounding the trade war decreases. The firm Dollar and sudden spike in USDINR supported prices on the domestic front. As investor confidence rises, they tend to shift to riskier assets, reducing gold's safe-haven demand. Over the weekend, Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over the nation's growing debt burden and the potential for increased interest payments. The downgrade reflects a broader trend, as other major credit agencies, including Fitch and S&P, had previously taken similar actions. Meanwhile, Geopolitical tensions and soft economic data continue to provide mixed signals, leaving gold prices vulnerable to any new developments regarding the U.S.-China trade talks. Gold could trade in a broad range of Rs 91,500 and Rs 95,500 this week. It has created a strong base ~90,500 on the domestic front, till this level is not breached, fresh selling should be avoided. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
12-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for May 12, 2025 week
today: What's the outlook for prices in the week starting May 12, 2025? Gold prices have experienced recent declines following their historic peak levels. Investors interested in gold should monitor international indicators and develop appropriate investment approaches. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now It is essential to understand the factors influencing gold prices and formulate suitable trading decisions based on market conditions. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd explains: Gold prices remained volatile throughout last week, influenced by a mix of economic signals, geopolitical tensions, and trade-related developments. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but warned of rising inflation and labor market risks, casting uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone, offering no clear guidance on rate changes. Gold briefly dipped as optimism over U.S.-China trade talks reduced demand for safe-haven assets, though prices later rebounded on renewed tariff concerns. President Trump maintained a firm stance on tariffs, further fuelling market unease, while China's central bank cut its reserve requirement ratio by 50bps, with limited market impact. A key domestic highlight was the escalation between India and Pakistan, which led to a surge in USDINR by over ₹1, supporting domestic gold prices and widening the disparity from international prices. Additionally, Israel's announcement on Gaza and mixed U.S. economic data—including a slightly lower Services PMI and stronger-than-expected job gains—added to market uncertainty. Overall, gold prices were driven by global trade dynamics, geopolitical risks, and shifting expectations around U.S. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now monetary policy. Focus this week will be on US CPI, Retail Sales, manufacturing Index and comments from Fed officials and Governor Powell. Other than that, over the weekend US and Chinese officials met to talk about a possible trade deal in Switzerland hence any updates from there could increase volatility in prices. If a trade deal is announced where tariffs rates are lowered bullion could witness significant pressure or else prices could trade sideways to higher bias. Sell gold only below Rs 96,000 targeting Rs 94800/93500. Strong resistance is ~96800-97000 any close above the same could take price near the recent peaks of Rs 99,000. (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Time of India
05-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for May 5, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold rate today: Focus this week shifts to Services PMI data from major economies and Fed policy meeting. (AI image) Gold price prediction : What's the outlook for gold prices in the week starting May 5, 2025? After touching record highs recently, gold has seen dips in recent days. What are the global cues that investors of gold should watch out for and what should their strategy be for gold? Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd explains: Last week, gold prices posted their worst weekly decline in over two months, falling back from the recent all-time high of $3,500, as easing trade tensions and mixed U.S. economic signals reduced safe-haven demand. The U.S. initiated overtures toward renewed trade talks with China, and Beijing responded by exempting some American goods from retaliatory tariffs—moves seen as steps toward de-escalation. Additionally, President Trump introduced relief measures on auto-related tariffs, offering temporary easing for both domestic and international manufacturers. These developments shifted investor interest toward the dollar and bonds, pressuring gold. On the geopolitical front, the U.S.-Ukraine agreement granting preferential access to key minerals was seen as a strategic move against Russia, while President Putin announced a brief ceasefire in Ukraine around Victory Day, with Kyiv. Economic data from the U.S. was largely disappointing—GDP contracted by 0.3%, while consumer confidence and ADP private payroll figures also came in below expectations, underscoring concerns about economic momentum. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Thousands Are Saving Money Using This Wall Plug elecTrick - Save upto 80% on Power Bill Click Here Undo Toward the end of the week, U.S. labor data painted a mixed picture, failing to provide clear direction for markets. While job openings fell sharply, a drop in layoffs suggested the labor market remains somewhat resilient. However, the overall tone of U.S. data leaned negative, reinforcing caution among investors. Despite a mild rebound in gold prices late in the week, market participants are focused on the geo political development which could continue to weigh on the market. Focus this week shifts to Services PMI data from major economies and Fed policy meeting where Governor Powell's statements will be very important to watch for. UK, China and Japan will also remain shut at the start of this week, on the back of public holiday Strategy for gold: View sideways to higher. Sell, for target of Rs 90,500-90,000; Resistance: Rs 93,500-94,000 Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
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Business Standard
30-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
How much should you allocate to gold in your portfolio this Akshaya Tritiya?
With gold prices scaling past the ₹100,000 per 10 grams recently and making the yellow metal out of reach for some, is it still advisable to buy the yellow metal at the current prices this Akshaya Tritiya, and how much money should allocate to gold in your portfolio? According to a note by Capitalmind Financial Services, gold portfolios with just a 5–10 per cent allocation to gold often achieve better risk-adjusted returns than equity-only portfolios. '50:50 portfolio of gold and the Nifty 50, rebalanced annually, outperformed standalone investments in either asset over more than two decades. This counterintuitive result underscores the Lindy Effect in action — where longevity and resilience in systems or strategies increase their likelihood of enduring success," the note said. In early 1980, investors, the note said, were inspired by the stellar returns of the 1970s. If they invested in gold back then, they would have faced two decades of negative returns. 'In early 2000, after dismissing gold during the poor-performing 1980s and 1990s, investors would have missed its massive rally in the 2000s. This unpredictability underscores why systematically rebalancing portfolios is critical,' the note said. Why are gold prices rising? The recent rally in gold that took the prices of the yellow metal past the Rs 100,000 per 10 gram mark in India has been triggered by US tariff fears as it fueled safe-haven demand. The $800an ounce price surge in gold in 2024/25, analysts said, is related to trade-related uncertainties. Yuan depreciation (19-month low versus trade partners' currencies) also accelerated gold buying as a safe-haven asset. Gold returns USD vs INR 'The returns on gold in INR and USD were fairly similar up until 1990, largely due to India's capital controls and protectionist policies. However, the post-1991 reforms, including trade liberalisation and currency decontrol, entrenched a more market-driven exchange rate,' Capitalmind said. Gold price outlook Analysts feel there is more steam left in gold price rally and investors should use the dips to buy the yellow metal. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), for instance, expect gold prices to hit the ₹106,000 mark in the long run. 'Investors can start accumulating gold near ₹90,000-91,000 for the long-term targets of ₹106,000. The metal has resistance near ₹99,000 levels,' wrote Manav Modi, senior analyst for commodity research at MOFSL in a recent report. READ ABOUT IT HERE Gold demand outlook One casualty of the surge in prices, according to analysts, could be retail demand for gold. A Crisil Ratings analysis of 60 gold jewellery retailers, which account for a third of the revenue of the organised jewellery sector, indicates as much. In fiscal 2025, retailers, according to Crisil Ratings, took a 4 – 5 per cent hit to volume as gold prices soared around 25 per cent on-year amid geopolitical and economic concerns. As of mid-April 2025, gold prices are already nearly 20 per cent higher than the average price in fiscal 2025. 'The recent jump in prices came just before the start of the festive and marriage seasons in the first half of April 2025, limiting the impact on demand thus far. However, as ticket sizes for buyers are likely to remain constant, caratage and grammage may reduce, as seen in the last four fiscals, impacting volumes. The demand, though lower, remains supported by duty cuts on gold imports announced last year,' said Himank Sharma, director at Crisil Ratings.
