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Mint
9 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Gold and silver rates to see more correction; is it the right time to buy gold and silver?
Gold prices held steady on Monday as improved risk appetite—following a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union—limited further gains. Investors also remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week. As of 0736 GMT, spot gold remained unchanged at $3,336.75 per ounce, after briefly hitting its lowest level since July 17 earlier in the session. Back home, MCX Gold August 5 contracts saw a slight uptick of 0.07 per cent, trading at ₹ 97,890 per 10 grams, while MCX Silver September 5 contracts inched up by 0.05 per cent to ₹ 1,13,107 per kg around 9:15 AM. ' Gold prices fell to their lowest in nearly two weeks, as a framework trade agreement between the US and EU reduced appetite for safe-haven assets. U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with EU, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half threatened rate - and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. Agreement mirrors key parts of the framework accord reached by the U.S. with Japan, but like that deal, it leaves many questions open, including tariff rates on spirits, a highly charged topic for many on both sides of the Atlantic,' said Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd. Gold declined by 0.21% last week, settling at 97,819 after reaching a high of 100,555. In the spot market, it touched a peak of $3,438 before retreating by 0.40% to close at $3,326. Renewed optimism around tariffs weighed on both gold and silver prices. Silver hit a fresh all-time high of 116,641 during the week but witnessed a sharp correction, ending at 113,052. According to Anuj Gupta, Director, Ya Wealth Research & Advisory, gold and silver price are likely to witness further corrections in short-term amid ongoing Trump's tariff row. ' We are expecting further corrections in gold and silver may be seen. Gold is strong at $3280 and then $3220 levels. Resistance at $3360 and than $3450 levels. For next week gold may test $3280 to $3250 levels. Silver support at $37 and then $36 levels. Strong Resistance at $40,' Gupta said. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Time of India
12 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 28, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction: Gold prices edged lower last week after briefly touching the ₹1 lakh mark domestically. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to trade sideways as the safe haven appeal of the yellow metal somewhat diminishes with the US sealing trade deals with many countries. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors: Gold prices edged lower last week after briefly touching the ₹1 lakh mark domestically, pressured by profit booking and easing global trade tensions. The safe-haven appeal of bullion waned as the US and European Union reached a framework trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods—significantly lower than the initially threatened rate—mirroring a similar pact with Japan. This development helped avert a broader trade war between two of the world's largest trading blocs. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened, limiting gold's downside, as mixed economic data—including lower jobless claims, strong services PMI, and shrinking manufacturing activity—clouded the outlook for interest rate changes. While President Trump continued to criticize the Federal Reserve's stance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach, making no clear commitment to rate cuts. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Got Knee Pain? Treatment in Dhaka Might Surprise You Knee Pain Treatment | Search Ads Undo Trump's unexpected meeting with Powell added to political intrigue but failed to shift market expectations materially. On the global front, US and Chinese negotiators are scheduled to meet in Stockholm in hopes of extending a trade truce, it is believed that this negotiations and 90 day breather could extend further. With the Fed's policy meeting at the centre of attention, along with key economic indicators such as GDP, consumer confidence, PCE inflation, and payroll figures. These economic figures around the Fed policy meeting could decide direction for Gold this week. US growth has been contracting, as seen in the past two numbers, however jobs market data is still holding firm making it tough for the Federal reserve to take a call on interest rate cuts. Till now the probability rate for the July meeting has not changed, there are less chances that it will happen this week, however any clues from the Fed Governor on rate cuts further this year might provide a trigger in the market. Gold Price Stance: Sideways to lower - Rs 96,000 - Rs 99,500 Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Mint
6 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Gold prices offer a glittering 200% return in 6 years: Can the yellow metal continue to shower gains on investors?
Gold has delivered mouth-watering returns in recent years, significantly outperforming equities, thanks to heightened global economic uncertainty, monetary easing, persistent inflation, and strong demand from both central banks and retail investors. From May 2019 to June 2025, gold prices in India jumped from nearly ₹ 30,000 to over ₹ 1,00,000 per 10 grams despite intermittent corrections. This shows that gold prices have given a stellar return of over 200 per cent in about six years, compared to about 120 per cent return by the Nifty 50. Since 2015, gold has outperformed both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 most of the years. The table below shows the year-wise return of Nifty 50 and Sensex compared to MCX Gold in percentage terms. Gold and equity returns since 2015 Gold is considered a safe-haven asset, attracting investors during periods of economic uncertainty, high inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Over the past six years, a confluence of factors — including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, persistent inflation, slowing global economic growth, and aggressive central bank buying — have been key drivers of gold prices. More recently, a trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies has served as an additional catalyst for gold's bullish run. "Domestic Gold prices have shown a 200 per cent increase in the last six years. From May 2019 to June 2025, gold prices skyrocketed from ₹ 30,000 to over ₹ 1,00,000 per 10 grams," Motilal Oswal Financial Services observed. Geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties, particularly the US President's tariff stance, will remain a key driver of gold prices. Markets have yet to fully price in the unpredictability of trade policy. Additionally, interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks globally are likely to provide further support to gold. Experts believe that after delivering strong returns in the first half of the year, gold appears well-positioned to extend its gains in the second half as well. However, due to demand fatigue at higher levels, gold may see some profit booking before starting fresh uptrends. So, one may consider booking some profits at this juncture. For investors with a medium-term investment horizon, it makes sense to buy gold on dips as prices look ripe for corrections. Experts appear to be slightly cautious for the short to medium term. "Following our long-standing bullish stance on the yellow metal, we are now taking a cautious pause in July 2025 — without completely turning away from it," said Manav Modi, Analyst- Precious Metal Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "While normal price fluctuations will continue, for gold prices to move beyond current all-time highs, the market requires fresh and significant catalysts. We are likely to see a period of price consolidation until the emergence of any decisive or longer-term triggers,' Modi noted. Anuj Gupta, the director of Ya Wealth, also recommends booking some profits. "Investors who entered gold five to six years ago may consider booking partial profits at current levels, as a short-term correction cannot be ruled out before the next leg of the rally," said Gupta. Gupta's year-end target is $3,500–$3,700 per troy ounce, with MCX Gold expected to trade in the range of ₹ $1,00,000– ₹ $1,03,000 per 10 grams by Diwali 2025 or the end of the calendar year. "Given the long-term bullish outlook, investors can either continue holding or exit partially and re-enter on dips. The yellow metal is poised to touch new highs over the long run," Gupta said. Ajay Garg, the CEO and director of SMC Global Securities, underscored that with the Fed likely to cut interest rates later this year, and ongoing trade wars slowing down economies worldwide, there's a growing worry about inflation, which could support gold. Garg further added that wars are already happening, and trade conflicts will keep pushing people to buy gold as a safe haven. Central Banks are expected to remain strong buyers of gold in 2025 as well. ETF buying is swelling too. Garg said gold may not see a huge drop, and one should buy on dips. "For gold, don't wait for a huge drop. The price is likely to find its own reasons to go higher. Buying gold when it dips a bit, perhaps around ₹ 96,000- ₹ 98,000 per 10 grams, would be a good move. We could even see gold hit a new record high of ₹ 1,05,000 in the second half of 2025," said Garg. Meanwhile, the recent moderation in gold could be attributed to a shift in investor preferences to other precious metals, such as silver and platinum. This trend may persist for some time, but is unlikely to keep gold under pressure for a longer period. "A shift in investor preferences is largely responsible for the recent sideways momentum. Investors appear to be more aggressive in silver and platinum, seeking short-term trading opportunities. Despite this change, we believe that gold's downturn appears limited, as uncertainties related to tariffs are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe haven," said Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities at HDFC Securities. Gandhi pointed out that the worsening economic and financial conditions, which are intensifying stagflationary pressures and rising US fiscal deficit, further reinforce this perspective. "The August 1 deadline is approaching, and so far, the US has secured fewer trade deals than Trump had previously claimed and the market had anticipated. We believe that the uncertainty and concerns surrounding the tariff rates could trigger a breakout in gold prices, leading to a rally in gold prices, as gold is viewed as the ultimate safe-haven asset during uncertain times," said Gandhi. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 14, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction: Focus this week will be on inflation data from major economies and US PPI, retail sales and industrial production. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: US President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policies will continue to add uncertainty to the global economic environment, implying that gold as a safe haven asset will continue to be in focus. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors: Last week, silver reached an all-time high domestically and hovered near $40 on COMEX, while gold touched a three-week high driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1, sparking strong opposition and prompting the EU to extend its suspension of countermeasures while seeking negotiated solutions. Trump also sent tariff notices to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with higher duties set to begin in August, alongside new 50% tariffs on US copper imports and goods from Brazil. These moves stirred volatility in precious metals, with prices dipping as hopes for trade agreements grew. The US dollar index steadied near a two-week high, and Treasury yields hovered close to three-week peaks amid inflation concerns linked to tariffs. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Lợi ích khi giao dịch CFD Bitcoin IC Markets Tìm hiểu thêm Undo Fed officials sent mixed signals over rate cut this year, with some favouring 50 bps cut by Dec '25 while others preferred to wait for tariff impact on inflation. Market expectations shifted toward fewer immediate rate reductions, with a more gradual easing anticipated later in the year. Meanwhile, US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a seven-week low, signaling stable employment and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve. Overall, last week reflected rising uncertainty around global trade policies, inflation outlooks, and monetary policy, influencing precious metals and broader markets. Focus this week will be on inflation data from major economies and US PPI, retail sales and industrial production. Stance: Gold to be range bound - Rs 99,000 - Rs 96,000 Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Mint
04-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Silver's 8% rally in June outshines gold. Which precious metal can offer better returns going ahead?
Gold vs Silver: While gold prices outpaced silver in the first half of 2025 with a nearly 25% rise, silver wasn't far behind, rallying about 20%. However, in June, as gold's momentum slowed with a gain of less than 1%, silver outshone with an impressive 8% jump — raising questions among investors about whether gold is showing signs of fatigue and if it's time to pivot toward silver. "Both gold and silver have put on a fantastic show since the start of 2025; however, in the first four months, gold's pace significantly exceeded silver's. Post President Trump's 'Liberation Day' action in April, gold prices picked up a significant pace but eased as trade talks started to take place and tariff fears reduced. Silver, along with industrial metals thereafter, gained momentum and caught up to gold's pace," said Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Gold also took a hit, amidst a easing off in risk premium, ambiguity in rate cuts from the Fed, and a breather in tariff and geopolitical tensions, putting a pause in bullion's rally. Apart from these, analysts also attribute the outperformance in silver prices last month to rising industrial demand and supply deficits. Silver has unique properties of both a precious and industrial metal, which has bolstered its demand. Approximately 60% of silver's demand stems from industrial applications, including electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles, contributing to the silver price rally. Silver supply has been constrained due to underinvestment in mining, especially as silver is often a byproduct of other mined metals, said Nirpendra Yadav, Senior Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza. This has led to a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year. Moreover, depleting inventories and a record ETF inflows of over $1.6 billion in June boosted market sentiment for the metal. "Like gold, silver serves as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. However, due to its smaller market size, silver often experiences more significant price swings, offering higher potential returns during bullish periods," the Bonanza analyst added. Analysts see a decline in the gold-silver ratio as a technical trigger powering the rise in silver prices. The ratio is a financial metric which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold. Investors often use the ratio to gauge whether gold or silver is relatively overvalued or undervalued. A higher ratio suggests silver is undervalued and vice versa. Silver outperformed gold in June because of the fall in gold-silver ratio from over 100 to around 92-93 (fall in the ratio leads investors to move towards silver) combined with the critical $35/ounce mark that triggered momentum and technical buying on breakout, said Prathamesh Mallya, DVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One. Going ahead, the outlook for gold prices does not seem as promising, with Modi of MOSL suggesting that gold might need fresh triggers for a further boost in prices, while silver could continue to trade with a positive bias. In the near term, Modi expects silver's outperformance over gold to continue. However, he added that as gold is considered a safe haven asset and is less volatile than silver, it is always recommended to have both in an investor's portfolio and diversify it based on one's risk profile, Modi added. Mallya also believes that silver prices have the potential to outperform gold for the rest of the year, because gold is just an asset which is a safe haven, while silver is both a precious and an industrial metal. "Its usage in the automobile industry, clean energy trends and tech adoption, specifically the rise of Electric Vehicles adoption globally, ongoing tightness in supply, and possible ETF inflows in the months ahead are a combination of factors for silver to perform better in comparison to gold," said Mallya. Silver: ₹ 1,25,000/kg possible targets by end of 2025 in the Indian markets 1,25,000/kg possible targets by end of 2025 in the Indian markets Gold: ₹ 1,10,000/10 gms in the Indian markets in the same time frame. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
