Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 14, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction today: US President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policies will continue to add uncertainty to the global economic environment, implying that gold as a safe haven asset will continue to be in focus.
Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors:
Last week, silver reached an all-time high domestically and hovered near $40 on COMEX, while gold touched a three-week high driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1, sparking strong opposition and prompting the EU to extend its suspension of countermeasures while seeking negotiated solutions.
Trump also sent tariff notices to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with higher duties set to begin in August, alongside new 50% tariffs on US copper imports and goods from Brazil. These moves stirred volatility in precious metals, with prices dipping as hopes for trade agreements grew. The US dollar index steadied near a two-week high, and Treasury yields hovered close to three-week peaks amid inflation concerns linked to tariffs.
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Fed officials sent mixed signals over rate cut this year, with some favouring 50 bps cut by Dec '25 while others preferred to wait for tariff impact on inflation. Market expectations shifted toward fewer immediate rate reductions, with a more gradual easing anticipated later in the year. Meanwhile, US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a seven-week low, signaling stable employment and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Overall, last week reflected rising uncertainty around global trade policies, inflation outlooks, and monetary policy, influencing precious metals and broader markets. Focus this week will be on inflation data from major economies and US PPI, retail sales and industrial production.
Stance: Gold to be range bound - Rs 99,000 - Rs 96,000
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