Latest news with #CommodityResearch
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 28, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction: Gold prices edged lower last week after briefly touching the ₹1 lakh mark domestically. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to trade sideways as the safe haven appeal of the yellow metal somewhat diminishes with the US sealing trade deals with many countries. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors: Gold prices edged lower last week after briefly touching the ₹1 lakh mark domestically, pressured by profit booking and easing global trade tensions. The safe-haven appeal of bullion waned as the US and European Union reached a framework trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods—significantly lower than the initially threatened rate—mirroring a similar pact with Japan. This development helped avert a broader trade war between two of the world's largest trading blocs. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened, limiting gold's downside, as mixed economic data—including lower jobless claims, strong services PMI, and shrinking manufacturing activity—clouded the outlook for interest rate changes. While President Trump continued to criticize the Federal Reserve's stance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach, making no clear commitment to rate cuts. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Got Knee Pain? Treatment in Dhaka Might Surprise You Knee Pain Treatment | Search Ads Undo Trump's unexpected meeting with Powell added to political intrigue but failed to shift market expectations materially. On the global front, US and Chinese negotiators are scheduled to meet in Stockholm in hopes of extending a trade truce, it is believed that this negotiations and 90 day breather could extend further. With the Fed's policy meeting at the centre of attention, along with key economic indicators such as GDP, consumer confidence, PCE inflation, and payroll figures. These economic figures around the Fed policy meeting could decide direction for Gold this week. US growth has been contracting, as seen in the past two numbers, however jobs market data is still holding firm making it tough for the Federal reserve to take a call on interest rate cuts. Till now the probability rate for the July meeting has not changed, there are less chances that it will happen this week, however any clues from the Fed Governor on rate cuts further this year might provide a trigger in the market. Gold Price Stance: Sideways to lower - Rs 96,000 - Rs 99,500 Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
21-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 21, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction: This week's key triggers include US durable goods orders, manufacturing and services PMIs, China's loan prime rate decision, and Fed Chair Powell's speech. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are expected to remain steady as global economic events continue to shape the yellow metal's price outlook. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors: Silver took centre stage last week, outshining most commodities by hitting an all-time high of ₹1,15,000 domestically and marking its highest COMEX level since 2012 near $40, before facing some profit booking. The rally was driven by strong industrial demand, supportive ETP flows, and a catch-up move relative to gold. Meanwhile, gold traded steady, supported by safe-haven flows after US President Trump threatened a 30% tariff on EU and Mexico imports from August 1. The EU responded by extending its suspension of countermeasures in hopes of a negotiated settlement. Tensions cooled somewhat as Trump later signalled openness to further talks. Market attention also turned to US inflation, which rose the most in five months in June, hinting that tariffs may be seeping into prices. Despite this, producer prices softened and industrial production showed modest recovery. Comments from Fed officials signaled a cautious stance, with expectations of rate cuts by year-end still intact. Brief uncertainty also rose as rumour rose that US President Donald Trump might initiate the process of firing Governor Powell, but quickly denied the same. Amid these developments, India's gold imports in June fell to a two-year low as high prices dented demand. It will be important to check how the negotiations between the US and other countries go, esp. China, EU, India, Russia and other major trading nations. This week's key triggers include US durable goods orders, manufacturing and services PMIs, China's loan prime rate decision, and Fed Chair Powell's speech—all of which could provide clarity on the Fed's next steps and impact precious metals momentum. Recovery in China is boosting the overall optimism in the market, however now it will be important to see along with economic numbers whether they loosen their policy further or leave it as it is. Lastly, it will be important to see whether Governor Powell's speech shows President Trump's recent threat or does he stay put on his 'wait-and-watch' stance. Any sign of pressure could support bullion from lower levels. Gold Price Outlook: Stance: Sideways to Higher - Rs 96,000 to 99,500 Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 14, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction: Focus this week will be on inflation data from major economies and US PPI, retail sales and industrial production. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: US President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policies will continue to add uncertainty to the global economic environment, implying that gold as a safe haven asset will continue to be in focus. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors: Last week, silver reached an all-time high domestically and hovered near $40 on COMEX, while gold touched a three-week high driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1, sparking strong opposition and prompting the EU to extend its suspension of countermeasures while seeking negotiated solutions. Trump also sent tariff notices to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with higher duties set to begin in August, alongside new 50% tariffs on US copper imports and goods from Brazil. These moves stirred volatility in precious metals, with prices dipping as hopes for trade agreements grew. The US dollar index steadied near a two-week high, and Treasury yields hovered close to three-week peaks amid inflation concerns linked to tariffs. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Lợi ích khi giao dịch CFD Bitcoin IC Markets Tìm hiểu thêm Undo Fed officials sent mixed signals over rate cut this year, with some favouring 50 bps cut by Dec '25 while others preferred to wait for tariff impact on inflation. Market expectations shifted toward fewer immediate rate reductions, with a more gradual easing anticipated later in the year. Meanwhile, US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a seven-week low, signaling stable employment and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve. Overall, last week reflected rising uncertainty around global trade policies, inflation outlooks, and monetary policy, influencing precious metals and broader markets. Focus this week will be on inflation data from major economies and US PPI, retail sales and industrial production. Stance: Gold to be range bound - Rs 99,000 - Rs 96,000 Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
07-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 7, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction: Gold prices saw notable fluctuations over the last week, ultimately settling near a six-week low. (AI image) Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are expected to continue being volatile in the near future on the back of uncertainties regarding US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, the approaching July 9 deadline, possible trade deals, and the fresh threat of additional 10% tariffs on BRICS countries that align with 'anti-American policies'. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors: Gold prices saw notable fluctuations over the last week, ultimately settling near a six-week low amid easing global tensions and shifting investor sentiment. The softening of US-China trade hostilities, including agreements on rare earth shipments, dampened safe-haven demand for gold. On other hand, a tentative Iran-Israel ceasefire and Trump's tariff reprieve on multiple countries also reduced geopolitical risk premiums. Despite the US dollar weakening to its lowest in over three years, gold prices were weighed down by stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data and mixed labour market signals, which cast doubt on near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. President Trump intensified his push for lower rates, even sending annotated global rate comparisons to Fed Chair Powell, though Powell maintained a cautious "wait and see" stance. Political developments added further complexity: Senate Republicans passed Trump's aggressive tax-and-spending bill, while trade negotiations also picked up pace over the weekend. US is close to finalizing several trade agreements in the coming days and will notify other countries of higher tariff rates by July 9, President Trump mentioned over the weekend, with higher rates scheduled to take effect on August 1. President Trump's tariff decision on BRICS nation will also be important to keep an eye on. Elsewhere, the first session of indirect Hamas-Israel ceasefire talks in Qatar ended inconclusively, adding that Israeli delegation didn't have a sufficient mandate to reach an agreement with Hamas. The USDINR hovered just below 86, influencing domestic prices. With the FOMC minutes and tariff deadlines approaching, market attention remains sharply focused on Fed policy cues and global trade dynamics. Gold Stance: Sideways to lower Gold Price Range: Rs 96,000 – 98,000, break below lower range could take prices to Rs 94,000. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Mint
04-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Silver's 8% rally in June outshines gold. Which precious metal can offer better returns going ahead?
Gold vs Silver: While gold prices outpaced silver in the first half of 2025 with a nearly 25% rise, silver wasn't far behind, rallying about 20%. However, in June, as gold's momentum slowed with a gain of less than 1%, silver outshone with an impressive 8% jump — raising questions among investors about whether gold is showing signs of fatigue and if it's time to pivot toward silver. "Both gold and silver have put on a fantastic show since the start of 2025; however, in the first four months, gold's pace significantly exceeded silver's. Post President Trump's 'Liberation Day' action in April, gold prices picked up a significant pace but eased as trade talks started to take place and tariff fears reduced. Silver, along with industrial metals thereafter, gained momentum and caught up to gold's pace," said Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Gold also took a hit, amidst a easing off in risk premium, ambiguity in rate cuts from the Fed, and a breather in tariff and geopolitical tensions, putting a pause in bullion's rally. Apart from these, analysts also attribute the outperformance in silver prices last month to rising industrial demand and supply deficits. Silver has unique properties of both a precious and industrial metal, which has bolstered its demand. Approximately 60% of silver's demand stems from industrial applications, including electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles, contributing to the silver price rally. Silver supply has been constrained due to underinvestment in mining, especially as silver is often a byproduct of other mined metals, said Nirpendra Yadav, Senior Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza. This has led to a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year. Moreover, depleting inventories and a record ETF inflows of over $1.6 billion in June boosted market sentiment for the metal. "Like gold, silver serves as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. However, due to its smaller market size, silver often experiences more significant price swings, offering higher potential returns during bullish periods," the Bonanza analyst added. Analysts see a decline in the gold-silver ratio as a technical trigger powering the rise in silver prices. The ratio is a financial metric which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold. Investors often use the ratio to gauge whether gold or silver is relatively overvalued or undervalued. A higher ratio suggests silver is undervalued and vice versa. Silver outperformed gold in June because of the fall in gold-silver ratio from over 100 to around 92-93 (fall in the ratio leads investors to move towards silver) combined with the critical $35/ounce mark that triggered momentum and technical buying on breakout, said Prathamesh Mallya, DVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One. Going ahead, the outlook for gold prices does not seem as promising, with Modi of MOSL suggesting that gold might need fresh triggers for a further boost in prices, while silver could continue to trade with a positive bias. In the near term, Modi expects silver's outperformance over gold to continue. However, he added that as gold is considered a safe haven asset and is less volatile than silver, it is always recommended to have both in an investor's portfolio and diversify it based on one's risk profile, Modi added. Mallya also believes that silver prices have the potential to outperform gold for the rest of the year, because gold is just an asset which is a safe haven, while silver is both a precious and an industrial metal. "Its usage in the automobile industry, clean energy trends and tech adoption, specifically the rise of Electric Vehicles adoption globally, ongoing tightness in supply, and possible ETF inflows in the months ahead are a combination of factors for silver to perform better in comparison to gold," said Mallya. Silver: ₹ 1,25,000/kg possible targets by end of 2025 in the Indian markets 1,25,000/kg possible targets by end of 2025 in the Indian markets Gold: ₹ 1,10,000/10 gms in the Indian markets in the same time frame. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
