Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 21, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?

Time of India

21-07-2025

Gold price prediction: This week's key triggers include US durable goods orders, manufacturing and services PMIs, China's loan prime rate decision, and Fed Chair Powell's speech. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today:
Gold prices
are expected to remain steady as global economic events continue to shape the yellow metal's price outlook.
Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors:
Silver took centre stage last week, outshining most commodities by hitting an all-time high of ₹1,15,000 domestically and marking its highest COMEX level since 2012 near $40, before facing some profit booking.
The rally was driven by strong industrial demand, supportive ETP flows, and a catch-up move relative to gold. Meanwhile, gold traded steady, supported by safe-haven flows after US President Trump threatened a 30% tariff on EU and Mexico imports from August 1.
The EU responded by extending its suspension of countermeasures in hopes of a negotiated settlement. Tensions cooled somewhat as Trump later signalled openness to further talks.
Market attention also turned to US inflation, which rose the most in five months in June, hinting that tariffs may be seeping into prices. Despite this, producer prices softened and industrial production showed modest recovery. Comments from Fed officials signaled a cautious stance, with expectations of rate cuts by year-end still intact.
Brief uncertainty also rose as rumour rose that US President Donald Trump might initiate the process of firing Governor Powell, but quickly denied the same.
Amid these developments, India's gold imports in June fell to a two-year low as high prices dented demand. It will be important to check how the negotiations between the US and other countries go, esp. China, EU, India, Russia and other major trading nations.
This week's key triggers include US durable goods orders, manufacturing and services PMIs, China's loan prime rate decision, and Fed Chair Powell's speech—all of which could provide clarity on the Fed's next steps and impact precious metals momentum.
Recovery in China is boosting the overall optimism in the market, however now it will be important to see along with economic numbers whether they loosen their policy further or leave it as it is. Lastly, it will be important to see whether Governor Powell's speech shows President Trump's recent threat or does he stay put on his 'wait-and-watch' stance. Any sign of pressure could support bullion from lower levels.
Gold Price Outlook:
Stance: Sideways to Higher - Rs 96,000 to 99,500
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