logo
Oil prices slide to 8-week low as US-Russia talks stir sanction uncertainty

Oil prices slide to 8-week low as US-Russia talks stir sanction uncertainty

Business Times4 days ago
[NEW YORK] Oil prices slid about 1 per cent to an eight-week low on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump's remarks about progress in talks with Moscow created uncertainty on whether the US would impose new sanctions on Russia.
Brent crude futures fell 75 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to settle at US$66.89 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 81 cents, or 1.2 per cent, to settle at US$64.35.
Those moves marked a fifth consecutive day of losses for both crude benchmarks, with Brent closing at its lowest since June 10 and WTI closing at its lowest since June 5.
Trump said on Wednesday that his special envoy Steve Witkoff made 'great progress' in his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Washington continued its preparations to impose secondary sanctions on Friday.
Trump has threatened additional sanctions on Moscow if no moves are made to end the war in Ukraine.
'Everyone agrees this war must come to a close, and we will work towards that in the days and weeks to come,' Trump said, without providing further details.
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
Sign Up
Sign Up
Russia is the world's second-biggest producer of crude after the US, so any potential deal that would reduce sanctions would make it easier for Russia to export more oil.
Earlier in the day, oil prices rose after Trump issued an executive order imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on goods from India, saying it directly or indirectly imported Russian oil. The new import tax will go into effect 21 days after Aug 7.
India, along with China, is a major buyer of Russian oil.
'For the time being, the 21-day start to the new Indian tariffs, while Russia tries to put together some kind of cease fire agreement ahead of President Trump's Aug 8 deadline, still leaves too much uncertainty around the situation,' Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a note.
In addition to the tariff and sanction uncertainty, analysts said a planned Opec+ supply increase has weighed on the market in recent days.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, meanwhile, will visit China for the first time in over seven years, a government source said on Wednesday, in a further sign of a diplomatic thaw with Beijing as tensions with the US rise.
In other news, Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, on Wednesday hiked its September crude oil prices for Asian buyers, the second monthly rise in a row, on tight supply and robust demand.
Oil inventories
Oil markets found support earlier in the day from a bigger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories last week.
The US Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 3 million barrels of crude from inventories during the week ended Aug 1.
That was much bigger than the 0.6-million-barrel draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, but was smaller than the decline of 4.2 million barrels that market sources said the American Petroleum Institute trade group cited in its figures on Tuesday. REUTERS
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Trump urges Beijing to quadruple soya bean orders as deadline for US-China trade truce looms
Trump urges Beijing to quadruple soya bean orders as deadline for US-China trade truce looms

Straits Times

timea minute ago

  • Straits Times

Trump urges Beijing to quadruple soya bean orders as deadline for US-China trade truce looms

Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox US President Donald Trump said China was worried about a shortage of soya beans. US President Donald Trump on Aug 10 urged China to quadruple its soya bean purchases ahead of a key tariff truce deadline, sending Chicago soya bean prices higher, though analysts were quick to question the feasibility of any such deal. In a late night post on Truth Social, Mr Trump said China was worried about a shortage of soya beans and he hoped it would quickly quadruple its soya bean orders from the US. 'Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President Xi,' Mr Trump said in his post. The most active soya bean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) jumped 2.38 per cent to US$10.11 (S$13) a bushel on Aug 11 after Mr Trump's post. The contract was steady earlier. China, the world's largest soya bean buyer, imported roughly 105 million tonnes (105 billion killiograms) in 2024, just under a quarter coming from the US and most of the remainder from Brazil. Quadrupling shipments would require China to import the bulk of its soya beans from the US. 'It's highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soya beans from the US,' said Mr Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. A tariff truce between Beijing and Washington is set to expire on Aug 12, but the Trump administration has hinted that the deadline may be extended. It is unclear if securing China's agreement to buy more US soya beans is a condition for extending the truce as Mr Trump looks to reduce China's trade surplus with the US. China's soya meal futures fell 0.65 per cent to 3,068 yen per tonne on expectations US imports could increase supply. China's Ministry of Commerce did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Under the phase one trade deal signed during Mr Trump's first term, China agreed to boost purchases of US agricultural products, including soya beans. However, Beijing fell far short of meeting those targets. This year, amid Washington–Beijing trade tensions, it has yet to buy any fourth quarter US beans, fuelling concerns as the US harvest export season approaches. 'On Beijing's side, there have been quite a few signals that China is prepared to forego US soya beans altogether in 2025, including booking those test cargoes of soymeal from Argentina,' said Mr Even Rogers Pay, an agricultural analyst at Trivium China. Reuters previously reported that Chinese feedmakers have purchased three Argentine soya meal cargoes as they aim to secure cheaper South American supplies amid concerns about a possible soya bean supply disruption in the fourth quarter. US soya bean industry has been seeking alternative buyers, but no other country matches China's scale. In 2024, China imported 22.13 million tonnes of soya beans from the US, and 74.65 million tonnes from Brazil. REUTERS

US consumers to bear brunt of tariff hit: Goldman economists
US consumers to bear brunt of tariff hit: Goldman economists

Business Times

timea minute ago

  • Business Times

US consumers to bear brunt of tariff hit: Goldman economists

[NEW YORK] The impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on consumer prices is just getting started, according to research by Goldman Sachs Group, adding more uncertainty to a Treasury market that has been gripped by shifting bets on the pace of interest rate cuts. US companies have so far taken the bulk of the hit from Trump's tariffs but the burden will increasingly be passed on to consumers as companies hike prices, economists including Jan Hatzius wrote in a note. Consumers in the US have absorbed an estimated 22 per cent of tariff costs through June, but their share will rise to 67 per cent if the latest tariffs follow the pattern of levies in previous years, they wrote. The net result: faster inflation. The core personal consumer expenditure index, one of the Federal Reserve's favourite measures of inflation, will hit 3.2 per cent year on year in December, according to the Goldman analysts. They said underlying inflation net of tariffs would be 2.4 per cent. The rate was 2.8 per cent in June. The report adds weight to a widespread view among economists that Trump's sweeping tariffs will fuel inflation at a time when Fed policy has become a hot topic not just for bond traders but even for the president himself. Trump has broken convention by publicly calling for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, suggesting Fed chair Jerome Powell should resign and adding an ally – at least temporarily – to the monetary policy committee. Bond traders are now looking ahead to Tuesday's inflation data for clues on how fast the Fed can cut. Treasury 10-year yields rose around seven basis points last week, but fell during European trading hours on Monday (Aug 11). BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Traders are pricing in a more than 80 per cent chance of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September, but the prospect of more easing in the months to come is clouded by the uncertain impact of tariffs on inflation. Staggered impact Most economists consider tariffs to be inflationary, since logic suggests companies will pass the additional costs onto their customers. But the view is not unanimous – and the debate partly comes down to definitions. 'Inflation, certainly as it's relevant to a central bank setting monetary policy, concerns an ongoing increase in the overall price level,' said Oren Cass, founder and chief economist at American Compass, in a recent episode of Bloomberg's Trumponomics podcast. 'If you choose a specific policy that by design makes a one-time change in the price of certain things, that is not inflation in a sense that you would want a central bank to worry about.' Goldman's analysis, which suggests businesses have held back from an all-at-once increase in prices, supports the argument that tariffs will ultimately be inflationary. The bank said tariff effects have boosted core PCE by 0.2 per cent so far, with another 0.16 per cent expected in July and an additional 0.5 per cent over the rest of the year. While American businesses have taken around 64 per cent of the hit from tariffs so far, their share will fall to less than 10 per cent as they pass on more of the costs onto consumers, according to the report. The analysts added that the impact on US businesses has been mixed – while some have taken a larger share of the tariff hit, domestic producers shielded from competition have raised prices and benefited. Those opportunistic price rises also push up inflation. Foreign exporters have absorbed an estimated 14 per cent of the cost of tariffs through June, but their share may rise to 25 per cent, Goldman said. The impact on foreign exporters can be gauged from a slight decline in import prices on tariffed goods, they said. BLOOMBERG

India's RBI said to have sold at least US$5 billion to boost rupee
India's RBI said to have sold at least US$5 billion to boost rupee

Business Times

timea minute ago

  • Business Times

India's RBI said to have sold at least US$5 billion to boost rupee

[NEW DELHI] India's central bank sold US dollars across both onshore and offshore currency markets this month to prop up the rupee as it weakened toward a record low, according to people familiar with the transactions. The Reserve Bank of India sold at least $5 billion worth of the US currency, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. The RBI didn't immediately respond to an email requesting comment on the matter. If the trend persists, it could become RBI's largest month of net dollar sales since January. The rupee fell to 87.89 per dollar last week, just shy of its all-time low as US President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods on Aug 6 to 50 per cent as a penalty for its purchases of Russian oil. A weaker rupee could fuel imported inflation and strain an already fragile economic recovery. The intervention suggests a potential shift away from the RBI's previously restrained approach under Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who took office in December. The rupee has depreciated more than 2 per cent so far this year, making it among Asia's worst-performing currencies. Roughly half of that drop came in the past two weeks after it became evident Trump was planning to increase the tariffs. On multiple occasions last week, the central bank was seen stepping into the offshore market just before domestic currency trading began at 9 am Mumbai time, according to two of the people familiar with the matter, who declined to be identified as they aren't authorised to speak on it. Relying on so-called non-deliverable forwards allows the central bank to guide the rupee's trajectory without having to sell large volumes of dollars outright. The central bank heavily relied on this strategy last year. The RBI's latest foreign-exchange reserves data also point to increased intervention, with the stockpile falling by US$9.3 billion, the steepest drop since November, to US$689 billion in the week through Aug 1. Part of the decline may reflect valuation changes in global currencies, not solely the central bank's dollar sales or purchases. BLOOMBERG

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store