India central bank's large rate cut squeezes forward premiums, leaves rupee vulnerable, analysts say
By Nimesh Vora and Jaspreet Kalra
MUMBAI (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of India's surprise outsized rate cut last week will leave the rupee vulnerable to further depreciation by pressuring already depressed foreign exchange forward premiums, several analysts said on Monday.
The rupee has underperformed its Asian peers in 2025 amid weak capital flows. A narrowing interest rate differential — with the U.S. Federal Reserve moving slower than the RBI in cutting rates — suggests the Indian currency may continue to lag.
MARKET REACTION
The 1-month U.S. dollar/rupee forward premium — typically more sensitive to liquidity conditions — fell to 7.5 paisa, its lowest level since November.
Meanwhile, the 1-year premium, which is more responsive to rate differential between the U.S. and India, declined to 1.5250 rupees, marking its lowest level in nearly a year.
GRAPHIC:
WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
A drop in dollar/rupee forward premiums makes the rupee less attractive for carry trades, and diminishes the incentive for exporters to hedge future receivables.
At the same time, it raises the likelihood that importers—who typically hedge near-term payment obligations—will step up their hedging activity.
The decline in premiums - a less favourable rate differential between the U.S. and India - could leave the rupee open to sharper depreciation.
CONTEXT
Against the backdrop of benign inflation and the need to support growth, the Reserve Bank of India last Friday delivered a larger-than-expected 50 basis point rate (bps) cut, exceeding the 25 bps anticipated by economists.
In a further easing move, the central bank slashed the cash reserve ratio for banks.
KEY QUOTES
"One thing the rupee had going for it is that it offered attractive carry ... with the 50-bps rate cut from the RBI, carry attraction has been reduced," Mitul Kotecha, head of FX and EM macro strategy Asia at Barclays, adding that in an environment where investors are again focussed on carry, the rupee's appeal has been diminished.
Falling premiums can be a "mild added headwind" for the rupee amid globally elevated yields, Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ Research, said, and pointed out that if India growth data weaken, there could be scope for one more rate cut.
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