Lining up for take-off: Resumption of direct flights imminent, Indian and Chinese airlines prepare to reclaim market lost in 2020

Indian Express

9 hours ago

With Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent visit to New Delhi, India and China appear to be one step closer to resuming direct flight connectivity between the two most populous countries in the world. With the exception of the Chinese special administrative region of Hong Kong, India and China have had no direct flights since early 2020, just before COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic.
'Both sides agreed to resume direct flight connectivity between Chinese mainland and India at the earliest, and finalize an updated Air Services Agreement. They also agreed on the facilitation of visas to tourists, businesses, media and other visitors in both directions,' India's Ministry of External Affairs said in a release late Tuesday.
Although the two countries have not given a timeline yet on resumption of direct services, the evident signs of a thaw in the India-China relationship—notably at a time when New Delhi's relationship with Washington has hit a few roadblocks—has built the hope that normalisation of air connectivity between India and China is imminent.
Direct flight connectivity between India and China was initially suspended due to the pandemic, which had brought much of the international flight operations to a grinding halt globally. As the India-China bilateral relationship soured following the standoff in Eastern Ladakh in 2020 and remained frigid over the subsequent years, direct flights between the two nations did not resume despite air connectivity returning to pre-pandemic levels globally.
Resumption of direct flights and normalisation of visa issuances—demands China has been making over the past couple of years—had come up in Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri's discussions with Beijing during his China visit in January. At the time, the two countries had agreed 'in principle' to resume direct flights. In the preceding months, the matter featured in talks between foreign and aviation ministers of the two countries.
Chinese and Indian airlines have been keenly watching the developments, and are now preparing for direct flights. Just last week, IndiGo's Chief Executive Officer Pieter Elbers had said that the carrier stands ready to resume direct flights to China as soon as the bilateral arrangements between the two countries allow. Chinese carriers, too, are eager to resume direct services, it is learnt.
Lack of direct flights have led to high airfares and long travel times for those flying between India and China. According to industry insiders, airlines—Chinese as well as Indian—have been looking to restart direct flights, as there is high demand for travel between the two countries.
Lack of direct air connectivity between India and mainland China, along with stringent visa restrictions, led to airlines from both countries losing out on potential passenger loads, and airlines operating from other Southeast Asian countries cashing in on the opportunity. Passenger traffic between India and China—currently solely through connecting hubs in South and Southeast Asia—is less than half of what it was in 2019.
All of it is being catered to by airlines from regions like Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam. To be sure, the Hong Kong airport is not exactly considered a Chinese airport due to Hong Kong's special autonomous status and a different visa regime than mainland China. It continues to be the leading connecting hub between India and mainland China.
The normalisation of air connectivity between India and China would likely be beneficial for airlines from both countries. However, Beijing appears to believe that Chinese carriers stand to gain more, as they held the dominant share of the direct flight market before the pandemic. This perception likely explains why China has been encouraging India to permit the re-establishment of direct air connectivity and normalise visa issuances for Chinese nationals.
Prior to the pandemic, specifically in December 2019, there were 539 scheduled direct flights per month between the two nations, offering a cumulative seat capacity of over 1.25 lakh. Of these, Indian carriers—IndiGo and Air India—accounted for 168 flights, or approximately 31 per cent. The remaining nearly 70 per cent of flights were operated by Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, and Shandong Airlines.
Despite this historical dominance, aviation industry observers do not necessarily anticipate that Chinese carriers will maintain such a significant share once direct flight connectivity is re-established. A lot has changed within the Indian aviation sector since 2019. Air India, now privatised and well-capitalised, has ambitions for rapid growth, particularly in the international market. Similarly, IndiGo, India's leading domestic carrier, is now more focused on expanding its international network.